Climas - Southwest Climate Podcast

Recorded 07/23/2025, Aired 07/24/2025 Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast focus on the current unusual monsoon for the entire episode.  All the ingredients are there - but it is not your typical season.  They cover the southwesterly flow, what the heck is going on with the four corners high, and the low that’s been sitting off the coast of California.  They dive into a recent rain event that was attributed to a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) and how the monsoon has done so far across Arizona and New Mexico which is a tale of 2 states.  Lastly, hear how the hosts are doing on their predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.   You can still play if you haven’t signed up yet.  August Predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game are due next Thursday 7/31 before midnight - See if you can beat Mike this next month!   Mentions: NWS - Tucson: Dewpoint Tracker Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping NWS - Climate Predicti

Recorded 06/24/2025, Aired 06/26/2025 In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast we are in the final countdown to the monsoon.  To get us started, host Zack Guido quizzes host Mike Crimmins on his climatology knowledge.  They then cover this past month’s heat ramp up, take a walk down monsoon history over the past few seasons, and look at past conditions as a precursor to get the monsoon party started.  Then close out with our current conditions and what the forecasts are saying.  Will the tropical storm activity be this year’s wildcard?!? Don’t forget to sign up and make your predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.  Forecasts for July must be entered by June 30 at 11:59 PM.   Mentions: Paper: “Is the North American monsoon self-limiting?” Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping 30 Day-ish Climate Tracking for Southwest U.S. 2025 Hurricane Forecast by Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis - University of Arizona NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Season Forecasts North American

Recorded 5/16/2025, Aired 05/20/2025 The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are ready to start counting down the days to this year’s monsoon season.  But before they get into the monsoon preview - they do a final winter recap and review April and May’s weather patterns.  They also cover the fire season so far, and Mike gets to share on his upcoming paper “Changing Climate, Changing Fire: Understanding Ecosystem-Specific Fire-Climate Dynamics in Arizona and New Mexico”. Stick around for the monsoon discussion at the end so you can be informed - or at least entertained - in time for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game starting next month!    Mentions: Paper: “Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation” National Interagency Coordination Center - National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: 3 Month Seasonal Outlook North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) - Precipitation Forecast AZ

Recorded 3/28/2025, Aired 4/1/2025 For this month's Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins deliver a fully robust episode.  They review the abysmal winter season, breeze through our ‘meh’ March, cover the snowpack conditions and drought situation - which all could lead up to a potentially active fire hazard season.  Stick around for the deep dive into the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and what to expect for the seasonal forecasts into the monsoon season.      Mentions: Climate Science Applications Program - University of Arizona Cooperative Extension: Station Maps USDA - NRCS: National Water and Climate Center Interactive Map Paper: Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation” NICC: National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook U.S. Drought Monitor PDO Paper: “A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production" PDO Paper: “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited” NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal

Recorded 2/14/2025, Aired 2/18/2025 It’s a new year and in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are looking for good news.  Zack gives a tour of recent statistics for the past few months and Mike goes over the related atmospheric happenings.  They cover La Niña and the climatology of the Southwest during this winter season.  Can we shake off this persistent dry spell and bring on a magnificent March?  Lastly they cover the Santa Ana winds which played a part in the destructive L.A. fires and begin to delve into AI weather modeling and forecasting.   Mentions: ENSO Blog: February 2025 La Niña update: La Niña today, gone tomorrow?  Paper: Changes in atmospheric rivers and moisture transport over the Northeast Pacific and western North America in response to ENSO diversity Scripps: Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC): Climate Perspectives - West Paper: Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipit

Recorded 12/06/2024 Aired 12/10/2024   In this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins slow-roll into the winter season.  They look back on 2024 followed by what happened in November and why - including the Atmospheric River event on the west coast.  They dive into a recent paper that interrogates the expected intensification of cool season precipitation in the west.  And close out with a teaser look at the La Niña outlook and precipitation forecast with a highlight of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI).     Mentions: Paper: “Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States”   ENSO Blog: “Can a little La Niña pack a big precipitation punch?” Related Paper: “A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events in a Changing Climate” North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) NOAA - Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

Recorded 11/1/2024 Aired 11/5/2024 The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are grateful that fall is (finally) here.  In this month’s episode, they unpack the persistent heat that hung around through October as well as blocking patterns.  They discuss the two major hurricanes that made landfall - Helene and Milton.  And get into the current ENSO forecast which is pointing to a weak La Niña.  Lastly, they dive into a couple papers as a way to think differently about ENSO and winter as they look ahead.  Buckle up as it could be a wild ride!   Mentions: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast NOAA - CPC:  El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) NOAA - ENSO Blog: Revisiting La Nina and winter snowfall Climate.gov - ENSO Graphic: Typical late fall through early spring upper level jet stream positions associated with moderate to strong La Niña and El Niño events NOAA - CPC - ENSO Graphic: North American Winter Features Pa

Recorded 9/20/2024 Aired 9/24/2024 In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack ‘Generational’ Guido and Mike “Dewpoint’ Crimmins break down what the heck happened to the second half of the monsoon this year.  They unpack the recent Atlantic tropical activity, or lack thereof, as well as any hope for the Pacific to bring some moisture to the Southwest.  They end with some coverage of the rest of September and a look into the early winter outlooks.  This episode is not without controversy - so download / stream today!   Generational Count = 11   Mentions: Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries NOAA Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS) The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events RainLog CoCoRaHS NOAA - CPC: Outlooks NWS - Tucson: Avg Daily Dewpoint Tracker IRI, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast Nort

Recorded 8/16//2024 Aired 8/20/2024   Now that we are over halfway through the 2024 monsoon season, this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins don their chef hats and lay out the main ingredients of the monsoon.  They give a recap of recent rain events, answer the question of whether or not the characteristics of convective storm dynamics have changed, and offer their thoughts on what is on the horizon for September.  Great timing as 8/31 is your last chance to join in the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game this year!       Mentions: RainLog “Understanding the Dominant Sources and Tracks of Moisture for Summer Rainfall in the Southwest United States” NWS - Tucson: Monsoon Tracker Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping "Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network" "Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models" NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks Southwest Monsoo

Recorded 7/19/2024 Aired 7/23/2024   Get ready for a big episode day as this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick off the monsoon season.  The crew cover the evolution of the current monsoon phases from onset to where we are today with stats and analysis.  And there is even a bit of a philosophical introspection on the data and sources (do you believe?).  Your hosts share what they have learned along the way - but stick around to the end to get their hot take on what is coming next.   Also - It’s not too late to sign up for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game as there are monthly prizes this year!   Mentions: Arizona Institute of Resilience - Power Forecasting Group  - Monsoon Forecasting Discussion Blog   - Contact to get on mailing list = Patrick Bunn, ptwbunn@arizona.edu Map - Percent of Average Precipitation (AZ & NM) RainLog Climate Reference Network Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks 

It’s June - which means in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins can officially talk about the monsoon.  Before they deep dive into the 2024 monsoon season, they cover recent conditions from last month, the fire risk and its relationship to the monsoon, and then get right down to business.  The stakes are high with a beer going to which host betters the other in v.4 of the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game this year (sign up today).     Recorded: Friday, June 7, 2024  Aired: Tuesday, June 11, 2024   Mentions: Southwest Coordination Center - Outlooks National Interagency Coordination Center - Outlooks Drought.gov - Soil Moisture North American Multi-Model Ensemble NOAA - Climate Prediction Center Tropical Tidbits - GFS Forecast Model

Welcome to this special episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast with guest hosts: Gigi Owen & Christina Greene.  In this special episode, we bring you 3 guests that were all part of the CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellowship program over the past year.  A lot of the science that CLIMAS researchers do is done collaboratively with and for our community partners so that the science that we do ends up being useful to decision-making and policy development and planning.  Our Fellowship program offers University of Arizona graduate students the opportunity to take this kind of collaborative approach to address environmental and societal problems.  Our fellows are here today to share more about their work and what they've been up to over the past year.   2023 CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellows Hannah Friedrich “Mapping tarps and stories to spotlight inequitable disaster recovery”   Majerle Lister “Re-Thinking Land and History: Working with Navajo Mountain Soil Water Conservation District Members”   L

It’s that time and we are 6 weeks away from the start of the 2024 monsoon season.  In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins cover the end of the winter season, the transition month of April and give an early preview to the monsoon.  Will the shift from El Niño to La Niña make for a dry or wet monsoon or active hurricane season?  Will Zack break Mike’s eternal optimism with what the forecast models are saying?  Listen in so you can be ready to play the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game!     Recorded: May 3, 2024 Aired: May 8, 2024   Mentions: University of Arizona Cooperative Extension - Climate Sciences Applications Climate.gov ENSO blog - “Untangling the winter 2023-24 precipitation forecast ball of yarn” Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping University of Arizona News - “Brace for a very active hurricane season this year, warn UArizona forecasters” NWS - CPC North American Multi-Model Ensemble

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back at winter to share insights on the late-loaded precipitation, as well as current snowpack conditions and streamflow forecasts.  The hosts discuss how El Niño played out as it starts its transition to La Niña and what to look out for this coming spring setting up this year’s monsoon season.  And stay tuned for news on this year's Monsoon Fantasy competition on the next Pod! Recorded: Friday, Mar 29, 2024     Aired: Tuesday, Apr 2, 2024

February 2024 SW Climate Podcast – El Niño’s Getting Late It’s the new year and Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back to give the lowdown on what’s happening in regards to the Southwest Climate in this month’s Podcast. They cover this past winter’s three-month pattern and overall conditions. Then they get global with the current state of El Niño and its influence on atmospheric rivers and other precip events seen in the first half of February. There’s a quick look at the resulting snowpack - which is an important feature of the west’s water supply. And finally they round it out with a look to the rest of the month which may or may not be the rally we need for a typical wet El Niño before La Niña comes back around. Mentions: ENSO Blog: “February 2024 ENSO Outlook: All along the La Niña WATCH-tower” https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower Paper: “Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde River

December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag Episode Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins sharpened their pencils, hit the library, and did their homework to bring you a very special MailBag episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast for this month.  Thank you to all the listeners for sending in your questions and for trying to stump our hosts.  This episode is not to be missed - so grab a cup of coffee and get ready to be schooled before heading off for the end of semester break.  And have a Happy Holidays from the Southwest Climate Podcast crew! Mentions: Question 1: We are based in Northeast New Mexico in the I-25 corridor. What is the predominant drivers of summer weather and precipitation.  Are we full-on monsoonal, more influenced by plains state weather patterns, or somewhere in between? Dan The climate of the US Southwest, Sheppard et. al. 2002 Question 2: There seemed to be an abundance of DCAPE this season, which is perhaps related to all the strong winds and hail we had this monsoon. what i

November 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Winter is Coming In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back from Thanksgiving to give a recap of November, which was not much to write home about.  They start gearing us up for the next few months by taking a look back at previous winters and give a glimpse into this coming season as far as impacts, synoptic features, and large-scale drivers.  The team rounds it out with a deep dive into El Niño and the complex forecasting that may or may not bring us some needed winter precipitation.  Also - the monsoon is gone but not forgotten! Last Call! The Southwest Climate Podcast is looking to do a special MailBag episode for the end of 2023!  We are asking for listeners to send in their questions - Can be anything Southwest Climate related or try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com.  Mentions:  U.S. Drought Monitor: Current Map - West National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: 

Goodbye, adios, sayonara - In this month’s podcast, the crew is ready to put the 2023 monsoon in the rearview mirror.  Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins give this year’s monsoon season recap and the only good thing to say is that ‘at least it was not 2020’ :(  They cover what happened in September, review temperature and precipitation as well as the tropical storm season that prevented a full out non-soon.  We also get to hear the results of the Monsoon Madness game winners and take a look forward to a strong-leaning El Niño coming this winter.   Attention! For the first time for the Southwest Climate Podcast we are requesting listeners to send in their questions for a special MailBag episode in December.  Try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at uaclimas@gmail.com.     Mentions: RainLog Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)     CLIMAS

In wrapping up a double-punch storm here in August ‘23, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to deconstruct the current monsoon season.  They discuss various analogs to this year, cover Hurricane Hilary that made its way up through the western U.S. as well as the potential for additional tropical storms to bring more precipitation to the Southwest.  Lastly they end on their predictions for September and into winter.  Good luck to all the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts participants out there!   Mentions: Pima County Regional Flood Control District - Rainfall Map RainLog Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping National Weather Service - Tucson: Monsoon Climate Perspectives @NWSPhoenix - Outflow Radar Paper: “The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest United States” CPC: 1 Month Outlook - Sept     {"Generational" Count = 1}   CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins bring you the July '23 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast to tease out what the heck is happening with this year's monsoon.  They cover some of the record-breaking heat in July, look back at the historical record of past monsoons to find an analog to this year, weigh in on whether any or all can be attributed to the El Niño flex, and lay out their predictions for the Monsoon Fantasy game.  They may not have any definitive answers, but at least you'll get an insightful look at this summer's puzzling monsoon. Mentions: Arizona Station-based Drought Tracker Climate Perspectives Eric Webb on Twitter @webberweather North American Multi-Model Ensemble Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Forecast   CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido