Economic Take

The Fed meets this week amid continued signs of economic recovery—and a rising chorus of inflation concerns. Jim takes a closer look at historic policy actions during recent financial emergencies and explains why current pricing worries could be short-lived.  

A pickup in capital investment can explain a lot about the future expansion business leaders are planning. First-quarter business loan growth looked drowsy at best, but Jim thinks that’s not the full story. He looks at four economic developments that restricted credit needs in 2020 that are likely lifting now—meaning new business lending momentum may already be underway.    

After a disruptive pandemic year, the nation’s economic discussion seems headed back to more familiar territory on expansion, markets and income equality. However, Jim examines key developments over the past year that could actually produce a brighter picture on these issues than seen even before last year’s lockdowns. 

The nation added 916,000 jobs in March amid continuing improvement in COVID-19 vaccinations and in key spending sectors like autos and travel. But Jim says this recovery road trip is likely far from over—and employment may have to pass some big mile markers to get home by year-end.  

Whenever we return to the office, what will it look like—and where might it be? Jim examines recent economic, demographic and workplace cultural trends that could shape commercial real estate as employees consider where they want to work, live and retire post-pandemic.      

With last week’s positive Federal Reserve forecast, longtime Fed watchers might have sensed something missing—decades-old jitters about rising prices, perhaps? With the recovering U.S. economy likely headed for its strongest growth in almost 40 years, Jim takes a closer look at the central bank’s new world and why it’s sticking to current rate policy even if inflation begins to stir.  

With the economy increasingly on the mend, could the Federal Reserve be closer to adjusting policy? Jim zeroes in on this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting for a closer look amid recent moves in the bond market and positive signals on jobs and economic growth.   

Some people say stocks and bonds are from two different planets—why else have bond yields been so low this past year despite a bullish stock market? Jim explores a few potential answers, including the effects of central bank asset purchases and the relationship between interest rates and earnings expectations.    

Day by day, wider COVID-19 vaccination has business owners visualizing a recovery with real staying power. But the amount of time it takes for the hardest-hit sectors to rebound—including hospitality, air travel and services—will vary. Jim checks the data and offers a picture of how the recovery may progress this year and next.    

Consumer spending is now back to pre-pandemic levels, but it’s likely to take a lot more than home delivery to satisfy consumer appetites in the coming months. Jim takes a look at fresh economic signals that could make 2021 the year of the consumer.

While some manufacturers benefited from the COVID-19 e-commerce boom in 2020, makers of aerospace and oil and gas products are still navigating significant challenges. Jim examines developments that could put these critical U.S. manufacturing sectors back to full capacity soon.  

With a third massive health and economic pandemic relief package moving through Congress,  Jim examines concerns about overstimulating the economy and why a temperate outcome is more likely.

As the Biden administration accelerates its COVID-19 vaccination rollout and Congress negotiates a new round of economic stimulus, Jim sees a game plan that could return the U.S. to full employment by year-end.

In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim brings back JPMorgan Chase colleagues Mel Martinez, former U.S. Senator from Florida and Chairman of the Southeast U.S. and Latin America, and Morgan McGrath, Head of International Banking for the Commercial Bank. The three discuss potential moves by the Biden administration for new economic stimulus, infrastructure spending, immigration policy and global trade, particularly with China.

In this special pre-inauguration edition of Economic Take, Jim checks in with Heather Higginbottom, President of JPMorgan Chase PolicyCenter. With widespread economic, health and social challenges facing the new Biden Administration, what policies could emerge to improve economic equity and financial resiliency for workers, families and small businesses?

Why are markets still flying so high despite surging pandemic cases and political unrest in Washington? Jim looks at a couple of possible causes, including recent developments in nationwide COVID-19 vaccination efforts and the possibility of more federal fiscal stimulus.

In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim unpacks major results from the 2021 Business Leaders Outlook with John Simmons, Head of Middle Market Banking & Specialized Industries at JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking. In a business world changed virtually overnight by COVID-19, Jim and John discuss a big year-end swing in executive optimism and business performance, as well as factors that may shape 2021.    

2020 closes on a hopeful note with the start of U.S. COVID-19 vaccinations—and not a moment too soon. With pandemic cases now surging, shutdowns could still happen. However, Jim looks at recent data in some of the hardest-hit industries and finds that our lockdown habits and continued consumer spending strength could still add economic warmth in the weeks ahead.    

Despite rising COVID-19 cases and November’s employment gains falling slightly below expectations, Jim looks at continuing signs of economic momentum that could accelerate with FDA vaccine approvals as early as this week. 

Even after the world receives an effective vaccine, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to impact the global economy for some time. Yet just last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached another record high. Jim looks at how this year’s impressive business performance numbers and rising market valuations are already driving confidence for 2021.