Economic Take

It’s the holiday gift that everyone’s been waiting for—several potential COVID-19 vaccines that are nearly ready for distribution. Jim explains how an aggressive effort to vaccinate the public could build on the momentum created by business and consumer activity to help fuel the economic recovery.

Successful COVID-19 vaccine trials and improving job numbers are potential bright spots for the economic recovery—but what about the office market outlook? Jim explains how shifts in workforce demographics and population flows may impact not just when, but where employees return to work.

Jim looks beyond October’s solid job numbers to legislative and medical milestones that could return the U.S. to pre-COVID-19 unemployment levels by late 2021.

Jim looks past Election Day to Friday’s release of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ employment report. Significant recent drops in insured unemployment coupled with strong signs of pent-up consumer demand could beat the White House for the biggest economic story of the week.  

In this special 2020 election edition of Economic Take, Jim speaks with JPMorgan Chase colleagues Mel Martinez, former U.S. Senator from Florida and the firm’s chairman of the Southeast U.S and Latin America, and Morgan McGrath, head of International Banking for the Commercial Bank. The three take a look at potential election outcomes in the White House and Congress and how spending, global trade, tax and fiscal policy could evolve under the next administration.  

In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim checks in with Fiona Greig, Director of Consumer Research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute, on how the shutoff of federal pandemic unemployment assistance is affecting out-of-work consumers. It may be a worrisome spot in an otherwise brightening jobs picture.  

The federal deficit was $3.1 trillion for the 2020 fiscal year. This record amount has some economists revisiting the popular theory that deficits may cause inflation. But is there any evidence that COVID-19 fiscal support could overstimulate the economy?  

U.S. GDP has regained nearly 86% of the ground it lost to COVID-19 disruptions at the beginning of the year. For the job market to match this pace of recovery, 7.5 million more people would need to be employed by now. What factors are contributing to the gap between national output and employment numbers? Hint: It’s not all due to the pandemic.    

While the broader U.S. economy has nearly reached its cruising altitude since the start of the pandemic, the air travel industry is still struggling to take off. The mains reasons why may be more psychological than economic—can innovative measures and faster COVID-19 testing help reassure the public that it’s safe to fly again?  

Our jobs picture keeps getting better, but last week, the Fed reported it’s keeping rates near zero through 2023. Is this part of the Fed’s new approach to managing inflation or something more nuanced?    

The number of Americans currently unemployed is now half of what it was back in April, but still far above the 3.5% rate in February. Yet, wage growth is pretty strong and recent surveys show businesses have nearly 7 million unfilled jobs. How has the pandemic affected the U.S. worker shortage and how may immigration reform play a role in solving it?  

Don’t look to a typical business cycle to explain the economic recovery from COVID-19. Instead, this week, we look at three trends involving the stock market, the job market and consumer activity and what they mean for national output.  

Last week, the Federal Reserve announced it would tolerate inflation “moderately” above its 2% target—why did the central bank do this now and what does it mean for financial markets? Also this week: signs of a consumer-driven Q3 GDP surge and a snapshot of the state of the job market.  

After remaining dormant for more than a decade, the U.S. housing sector has roared back to life in the middle a pandemic and an economic crisis. This week we take a look at what may be contributing to this residential real estate tailwind, including: favorable aggregate income trends, low mortgage rates and demographic shifts.  

Colleges and universities contribute up to 4% of U.S. GDP when you add up tuition costs, room and board, NCAA revenues and research dollars—virtual classrooms and cancelled sporting events will likely have a big impact on the higher education sector this fall. Also this week: a look at the strained finances of states and local communities due to COVID-19 disruptions.  

What does the state of the job market in July tell us about the broader U.S. economy? Also this week: Why the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is starting to shrink and how the Fed is changing the way it manages inflation.

Last week’s historic GDP report—showing a 32.9% annualized drop—drove a lot of news headlines, which at the surface-level, didn’t tell us much about where the economy is headed. Let’s dig a little deeper into the report and unearth four additional nuggets of data that may provide some answers about the months ahead.    

In this special edition of Economic Take, Jim speaks with Fiona Greig, Director of Consumer Research at the JPMorgan Chase Institute, about a new report on the impact unemployment insurance has had on consumer spending and the U.S. economy since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.    

Efforts to contain the latest flare-up of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. will probably not result in the same economic upheaval of March and April. Meanwhile, retail sales, the CPI, manufacturing output and housing starts in June all provide a favorable impression of the state of the recovery.

In the last couple of weeks, several populous states, including Florida, Texas and California, have experienced flare-ups in COVID-19 cases. Despite this, the stock market continues to rise and is once again near February’s historic highs. Is the market losing touch with economic reality or are investors seeing real silver linings?