Economic Take

Small businesses saw both the challenges and opportunities of economic upheaval the last year. Chase for Business joined the Economic Take podcast to unpack how the economy and labor shortages are impacting small businesses—and how entrepreneurs are adapting.  

GDP is back to pre-pandemic levels, the economy is still short millions of jobs and businesses are struggling to fill job openings. The gap between national output and employment could lead to a few different scenarios, and each one looks different for growth and Fed policy in the years ahead.  

The value of the U.S. stock market now is twice the size of the U.S. economy. What macroeconomic factors led to the market’s record highs, and what’s on the horizon?

Businesses finally took a long-needed leap toward automation. (It was a global pandemic that provided the shove.)      

By focusing on the core and not the more volatile sectors like food and energy, the Fed gets a steadier look at the big economic picture. Still, economists are gravitating toward other gauges of inflation.  

Even with the economy rebounding, nonfarm employment is still several million below of its pre-pandemic mark. Schools and restaurants account for a big share, but signs point in the right direction.

The second-quarter GDP report reveals the culprit behind inventory shortages: A rare divergence between final demand and production. Jim explains how the situation will probably ease.  

Inflation readings and price pressures all point toward pandemic bottlenecks. That’s why the Fed’s “transitory” explanation is the right idea.

A JPMorgan Chase survey of mid-sized businesses suggests leaders are confident as companies bounce back from the pandemic. They also give insight into how they navigated the last year, and, perhaps more importantly, how they plan to take on the next challenges and opportunities.  

We’re moving around again, and that’s giving a lift to industries slowed by the pandemic. Jim explains how the energy and aviation sectors offer a glimpse at what’s ahead.

The nation’s GDP has just about recovered to pre-pandemic levels. So why isn’t the job market catching up? Jim explains why the economy’s going to have to grow much faster to hit Fed targets.  

May home sales fell for the fourth straight month as tight inventories and rising prices put a drag on the market. Time to worry? Jim offers four reasons why he thinks housing will be favorable in the coming months.    

So it’s happened. On June 16, the Federal Reserve announced an earlier time line for when it might raise interest rates. With the markets still shifting in response, Jim takes a deeper look at what Fed policymakers said—and why watching the economy’s reopening in the coming weeks could tell us much more. 

There’s plenty of continuing concern about inflation, but Jim notes that the Fed’s message about higher prices being “transitory” remains on point. He points out that supply chain bottlenecks forced by sudden, fast-returning demand in key industries are the more likely culprit in today’s rising prices, and could be temporary.   

Last week, the Fed reported its members discussed whether it’s time to start talking about adjusting asset purchases the central bank has used to steer the pandemic economy—triggering brief market volatility. Jim thinks the Fed won’t keep policy easy forever, but likely won’t rush to unwind either. Here’s why. 

Labor productivity is one of the toughest economic concepts to measure, yet a central storyline in every economic rebound. Jim looks at how demographic trends, technological advancements and policy changes could shape human productivity, hiring and economic growth during the pandemic recovery—and beyond.     

Inflation news continues to drive headlines—rising prices for cars, lumber, gasoline and basic materials will do that. But central banks—including the Fed—have called these pricing pressures “transitory.” Jim explains why there’s much more to the current inflation picture than what’s on the sales receipt.  

With more than 10 million jobs needing to be filled to meet the Fed’s full employment targets, why are people still talking about worker shortages? Jim examines this stubborn hiring problem—how it likely started, why it could persist despite current pandemic policies and what actions could potentially address it.  

Last week’s perceived shortfall in April employment definitely had people talking. Jim sees more in the latest fundamentals that are likely moving the U.S. closer to the Federal Reserve’s “maximum employment” targets than most might think.    

This Friday’s April jobs report could be the economic headline of the week. But Jim reminds us there’s always more happening behind the data. How emerging demographic and migration patterns are likely shaping the U.S. economy’s post-pandemic narrative.