Montel Weekly

Concerns over energy supply for the coming months are mounting as gas flows from Russia to Germany through the vital Nord Stream 1 pipeline have dwindled to 20% of capacity. Market participants fear that deliveries could be cut completely, due to an ongoing spat between the two countries over the turbine necessary to pump the gas. Listen to a discussion with a Ukraine-based expert on the likelihood of a full cut to flows and the potential implications for European industry and households.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Yuriy Onyshkiv, Senior Gas Analyst, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG)

In the last episode before a summer break, we round up the past six months and delve into the key drivers for the remainder of the year. Gas will continue to be the pressing issue, with a squeeze on supply likely to remain the single most important issue for 2022 and 2023. Listen to a discussion on why Nordic firms will be praying for rain and the urgency to solve permitting bottlenecks for green energy across Europe. And much, much, more.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Olav Vilnes, Editor Nordics, MontelAndres Cala, LNG Correspondent, MontelTasmin Chowdhary, Environmental Markets Reporter, Montel

Can we expect a total reduction in gas flows to Europe over the coming weeks? Will the Nord Stream 1 pipeline stay offline after annual maintenance in July? These are the key issues facing countries across Europe in the week to come, as a trickle in gas deliveries could deepen the continent’s energy, possibly causing prices to spike still further. Listen to discussion on the outlook for the coming winter and the options available for market participants and policy makers. Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Wayne Bryan, Director European Gas Research, LSEG

The war in Ukraine continues wreaking death and destruction, with hopes of a lasting ceasefire looking unlikely. The conflict also continues to cast a shadow on Europe’s energy market as the bloc looks to wean off its dependency on Russian gas. Listen to a discussion on whether Moscow’s new game plan could be to saturate the market with a view to price out alternative supplies, particularly from the US.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Henning Gloystein, Director, Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group

The European Commission’s recent RepowerEU package seeks to hastily end the continent’s dependency on Russian gas as well as accelerate the expansion of renewables and green gases. Listen to a discussion on the long, expensive road ahead, and why not everyone welcomes plans to boost the region’s gas infrastructure. Will the new measures ease the permitting logjam for green energy or could a more targeted approach work better? Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Ilaria Conti, Head of Gas, Florence School of Regulation Dries Acke. Director, Solar Power Europe

In a tale of two regions, southern Norway will continue to experience very high wholesale prices while they will be much lower in northern parts of the country and Sweden, for a long while yet. Listen to a discussion on the market outlook in the Nordics amid the wider energy crisis, Finland’s power squeeze, and why companies are deserting the forward market. In addition, what’s the likelihood of a supply crunch in the coming winter?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst, Storm GeoMarius Holm Rennesund, Partner, Thema Consulting

Russia’s turning off the gas taps to Poland – along with Bulgaria and more recently Finland – has created an opportunity for one of Europe’s biggest producers of fossil fuels to switch to more renewables like wind and solar. Listen to a discussion on how Russia’s war in Ukraine has spurred Warsaw to speed up its green transition, even if it means a brief pick-up in coal-burn to keep the lights on.  Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Joanna Mackowiak-Pandera, President of Energy Forum.

This week French president Emmanuel Macron announced a new prime minister – with other key energy portfolios still to be put in place. The latest pod discusses corrosion at several of the country’s nuclear plants, expected output over the crucial winter period and the expansion of solar power. We also examine whether Macron’s plan to build up to 14 new reactors is realistic without a restructuring of EDF.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Emeric de Vigan, CEO and Founder Core-E

European carbon prices have been sidelined by the debate around sanctions on gas, coal, and oil from Russia. However, EUA prices have seen huge volatility, with price swings of up to EUR 8 a day. Listen to a discussion on the price drivers over the short and medium-term,  and why EUR 100/t would be unsustainable. In addition, what is the likelihood of excluding financial entities, or speculators from the market?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Ingvild Sørhus, Lead EU Carbon Analyst, RefinitivMarcus Ferdinand, Head of Analysis, GreenfactBernadett Papp, Head of Research and Analysis, Vertis

Russia’s halt in gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria for their refusal to pay in rubles has the energy market guessing who might be next. It is still unclear whether customers agreeing to the Kremlin’s new terms is a breach in EU sanctions, even without an outright embargo on gas imports. Listen to a discussion on the apparent weaponization of gas, and what a further stop in Russian flows could do to European industry and wholesale prices.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Trevor Sikorski, Head of Natural Gas and Carbon Research, Energy Aspects

Italy lags behind many countries in harnessing its renewables potential, with the country’s energy transition hampered by cumbersome permitting rules. While that could be about to change due to government reform, other interventions such as taxes on green generators’ windfall profits may scare off investors. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for renewable energy in the country amid a scramble to replace Russian gas.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Stefano Cavriani, Co-Founder & Director of Ego Energy, and Riccardo Rossi, Head of Southern and Central Europe Origination, Centrica Energy Trading

In early April the UK announced ambitious plans to wean itself off non-domestic energy sources. Are plans to install 17 GW of nuclear capacity over the coming decades realistic? Who will build a new fleet of reactors, and more importantly, where will the cash come from? Listen to a discussion about why the government’s policy will fail to fix an energy crisis that threatens to plunge huge swathes of the country into energy poverty. Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Antony Froggatt, Senior Research Fellow, Chatham House

Russia is trying to force companies to pay for its gas in rubles, while the EU has still not decided to implement full energy sanctions amid opposition from some member states. Listen to a discussion on the legal issues for European firms surrounding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the implications of a cut from either side. We also look at the current status of Nord Stream 2 and potential loopholes in the regulatory framework. Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Ana Stanic, Principal, E&A Law

The EU is considering energy sanctions on Russia amid reports of atrocities in its ongoing war in Ukraine but many countries fear the consequences of such measures on the economies of the 27-nation bloc. These potential measures comeo against the backdrop of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s posturing. Is Moscow’s short-term to aim to starve Europe of energy? And could oil and gas prices spike further in the weeks and months ahead?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Analyst, Commodities, SEB and Nadia Martin Wiggen, Partner and Chief Oil Analyst, Pareto Securities. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ensuing Western sanctions have roiled European energy markets. EU nations are scrambling to find alternatives to Russian supplies, while Moscow is demanding payments be made in rubles. Who will win this energy conflict?Listen to an update on the EU’s strategy to wean off its dependency on Russia.Guest: Siobhan Hall, Brussels Correspondent, Montel

This week we focus on how Norway and Germany are coping with the energy crisis exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Oslo is subsidising household energy use, Berlin is reaching far and wide for alternatives to Russian gas.Listen to a discussion about their tough challenges and why they might succeed.Guests: Andreas Lochner, Editor Germany, Montel, Gert Ove Mollestad, Editor Norway, Montel

Many energy firms have been rapidly cutting ties with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. This week’s episode focuses on the deep ties French oil and gas major has with Moscow, its feud with the US and why a “Rexit” may be very difficult and very costly, for the company.We also touch on the financial challenges facing EDF and the role of energy in France’s upcoming presidential election.Guests: Chris Eales, Editor FranceMuriel Boselli, Correspondent France

Carbon market participants should brace themselves for more price volatility in the week to come - have we reached the bottom at EUR 55/t, or could prices climb to EUR 100/t?Listen to a discussion on the key drivers going forward, and whether compliance buying could offset selling by speculative and industrial companies. Guests: Ingvild Sorhus, Lead EU Carbon Analyst, RefinitivBernadett Papp, Analyst, Vertis Environmental Finance

The energy crisis that has engulfed Europe for months is set to continue well into 2023 amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and the concerns over gas and coal supplies from Russia. Will either side cut gas flows, or can Europe source alternative fossil fuels?Listen to a discussion on the hard choices facing Europe going forward and the outlook for wholesale prices. Guests: Wayne Bryan, Director, European Gas Research, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG)Laurence Walker, Editor Montel

The prices of European guarantees of origin have soared in recent weeks amid robust demand, strong commodity markets and low hydro levels in the Nordic region.Listen to a discussion on the outlook for GO prices amid increasing interest from corporates, as well as forecasts for carbon prices amid ongoing policy and regulatory reforms.Marcus Ferdinand, Head of Analysis, Greenfact