Montel Weekly

The EU is considering energy sanctions on Russia amid reports of atrocities in its ongoing war in Ukraine but many countries fear the consequences of such measures on the economies of the 27-nation bloc. These potential measures comeo against the backdrop of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s posturing. Is Moscow’s short-term to aim to starve Europe of energy? And could oil and gas prices spike further in the weeks and months ahead?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief Analyst, Commodities, SEB and Nadia Martin Wiggen, Partner and Chief Oil Analyst, Pareto Securities. 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and ensuing Western sanctions have roiled European energy markets. EU nations are scrambling to find alternatives to Russian supplies, while Moscow is demanding payments be made in rubles. Who will win this energy conflict?Listen to an update on the EU’s strategy to wean off its dependency on Russia.Guest: Siobhan Hall, Brussels Correspondent, Montel

This week we focus on how Norway and Germany are coping with the energy crisis exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While Oslo is subsidising household energy use, Berlin is reaching far and wide for alternatives to Russian gas.Listen to a discussion about their tough challenges and why they might succeed.Guests: Andreas Lochner, Editor Germany, Montel, Gert Ove Mollestad, Editor Norway, Montel

Many energy firms have been rapidly cutting ties with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. This week’s episode focuses on the deep ties French oil and gas major has with Moscow, its feud with the US and why a “Rexit” may be very difficult and very costly, for the company.We also touch on the financial challenges facing EDF and the role of energy in France’s upcoming presidential election.Guests: Chris Eales, Editor FranceMuriel Boselli, Correspondent France

Carbon market participants should brace themselves for more price volatility in the week to come - have we reached the bottom at EUR 55/t, or could prices climb to EUR 100/t?Listen to a discussion on the key drivers going forward, and whether compliance buying could offset selling by speculative and industrial companies. Guests: Ingvild Sorhus, Lead EU Carbon Analyst, RefinitivBernadett Papp, Analyst, Vertis Environmental Finance

The energy crisis that has engulfed Europe for months is set to continue well into 2023 amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and the concerns over gas and coal supplies from Russia. Will either side cut gas flows, or can Europe source alternative fossil fuels?Listen to a discussion on the hard choices facing Europe going forward and the outlook for wholesale prices. Guests: Wayne Bryan, Director, European Gas Research, London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG)Laurence Walker, Editor Montel

The prices of European guarantees of origin have soared in recent weeks amid robust demand, strong commodity markets and low hydro levels in the Nordic region.Listen to a discussion on the outlook for GO prices amid increasing interest from corporates, as well as forecasts for carbon prices amid ongoing policy and regulatory reforms.Marcus Ferdinand, Head of Analysis, Greenfact

As Russian troops pour into Ukraine, we recorded a special episode looking into the implications for Europe’s wholesale energy markets. As we go to press, piped gas continues to flow from Russia, but what are the chances of a supply curtailment? Europe needs to find alternatives and make some hard decisions, in what our guest calls a “merit order of torture”.Guest: Georg Zachmann, Senior Fellow, Bruegel

Hardly a week goes past without a company announcing ambitious plans to produce green hydrogen. But are these projects realistic?Listen to a discussion on the folly of using hydrogen as a fuel in the transport, heating and power generation sectors and the sectors where H2 has an important role. Is hydrogen a panacea for the green transition, or a vehicle for greenwashing?Guests: Paul Martin, Spitfire Research ConsultingJan Cihlar, Managing Consultant, Guidehouse

After we recorded this episode, French President Macron announced plans to build up to 14 reactors by 2050. But earlier in the week, EDF announced that it would cut its available 2022 nuclear output by about 5% to between 295 and 315 TWh, a record low.Listen to a discussion on the latest corrosion problems at the country’s nuclear plants and what they could mean for supply security and prices across north-west Europe. Is building more reactors the answer, and are such plans economically viable?Guests:Chris Eales, Editor France, MontelPaolo Coghe, CEO, Acousmatics

Continued tension between Ukraine and Russia has supported European wholesale prices, which remain at historically high levels.This week’s pod delves into the potential consequences of an armed conflict for gas supply to Europe, the impact on prices and market ignorance of some key policymakers. Will Russia cut gas flows and are alternative supplies available elsewhere?Guests: Jonathan Stern, Distinguished Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy StudiesCarlos Torres Diaz, Director Power and Gas Market Research, Rystad Energy

The consequences of energy price spikes and massive wholesale market volatility have not only hit the pockets of households and the balance sheets of industrial firms, but have also slowed the pace of deals for power purchase agreements (PPAs). Will the energy crisis and the threat of regulatory intervention cause the expansion of renewables to wobble?Listen to a discussion on the key deals (and dealmakers) of 2021 and the outlook for this year.Guest: Luca Pedretti, COO and Co-Founder of PexaparkTo get more insights from Luca, you can join this Pexapark webinar: link

The Nordic region has not escaped the unprecedented energy price levels seen elsewhere, but according to this week’s guests, remains competitive compared to other parts of Europe and the world.Listen to a discussion on the outlook for electricity prices and the market consequences of the crisis. Could the region see the introduction of price caps and export limitations?Guests: Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst, Storm GeoMia Bodin, Head of Analysis, Bodecker Partners

European wholesale gas prices have softened in recent days on forecasts of mild weather and the prospects of LNG imports but they are set to remain at historic highs for many weeks to come.This week’s pod discusses the crucial question of Russian gas supply, LNG shipments in the first quarter and Asian demand. When will the energy crisis ease?Guest: Trevor Sikorski, Head of Natural Gas, Oil and Carbon Research, Energy Aspects

Some German energy retailers went under last year, but many more could follow suit in 2022 as the consequences of soaring prices and poor hedging strategies become clear.Listen to a discussion about whether the existing marginal pricing model is fit for purpose, particularly as renewable energy capacity ramps up and nuclear and coal are phased out. Plus, how will the new German government cope with a potential supply crunch.Guest:Tobias Federico, Managing Director, Energy Brainpool

Carbon prices have tripled, gas markets have soared, Europe is burning through its coal stocks but at the same time the demand for green energy procurement has never been higher.Listen to a review of 2021 in carbon, environmental markets as well as in coal and gas and the key drivers for next year. Will all eyes be on the EC’s Fit-for-55 package or will the focus return to speculators in the EU ETS?Guests:Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance Carbon ReporterLaurence Walker, Coal and Gas Editor, MontelRachael Burnett, Environmental Markets Reporter, Montel

The collapse of dozens of UK energy retailers amid a spike in wholesale prices suggests too many were operating with just enough money to cover their expenses. Or does it reflect a failure of market design or of government policy?Listen to this week’s discussion about energy zombie firms and how to fix the UK’s energy market.Guest: Emma Pinchbeck, CEO, Energy UK

This week’s pod discusses the contested Nord Stream 2 pipeline following the temporary suspension of certification by the German regulator.Listen to a discussion on the latest developments regarding Gazprom’s attempts to gain approval and the bureaucratic, legal as well as geopolitical obstacles that stand in its way. When can we expect Russian gas to start flowing into Germany?Guest: Ana Stanic, Principal, E&A Law

This week we return to the European carbon market, where prices have soared following plans by the new German government to introduce a CO2 price floor. Listen to a discussion on the key market drivers and the outlook for the coming months. Could prices hit EUR 100/t by the end of the year or are they more likely to correct down?Guest: Ingvild Sorhus, Lead EU Carbon Analyst, Refinitiv

This week our attention turns to COP26 that ended last weekend in Glasgow. Was there a gulf between the technical jargon used by the conference participants and wider the global climate crisis affecting many parts of the world?Listen to a discussion on the agreement reached and the implications for carbon markets. How far away are we from a global carbon price?Guests:Lambert Schneider, Research Coordinator for International Climate Policy at Germany’s Institute for Applied EcologyAndrei Marcu, Executive Director of the European Roundtable on Climate Change and Sustainable Transition.