Montel Weekly

As Russian troops pour into Ukraine, we recorded a special episode looking into the implications for Europe’s wholesale energy markets. As we go to press, piped gas continues to flow from Russia, but what are the chances of a supply curtailment? Europe needs to find alternatives and make some hard decisions, in what our guest calls a “merit order of torture”.Guest: Georg Zachmann, Senior Fellow, Bruegel

Hardly a week goes past without a company announcing ambitious plans to produce green hydrogen. But are these projects realistic?Listen to a discussion on the folly of using hydrogen as a fuel in the transport, heating and power generation sectors and the sectors where H2 has an important role. Is hydrogen a panacea for the green transition, or a vehicle for greenwashing?Guests: Paul Martin, Spitfire Research ConsultingJan Cihlar, Managing Consultant, Guidehouse

After we recorded this episode, French President Macron announced plans to build up to 14 reactors by 2050. But earlier in the week, EDF announced that it would cut its available 2022 nuclear output by about 5% to between 295 and 315 TWh, a record low.Listen to a discussion on the latest corrosion problems at the country’s nuclear plants and what they could mean for supply security and prices across north-west Europe. Is building more reactors the answer, and are such plans economically viable?Guests:Chris Eales, Editor France, MontelPaolo Coghe, CEO, Acousmatics

Continued tension between Ukraine and Russia has supported European wholesale prices, which remain at historically high levels.This week’s pod delves into the potential consequences of an armed conflict for gas supply to Europe, the impact on prices and market ignorance of some key policymakers. Will Russia cut gas flows and are alternative supplies available elsewhere?Guests: Jonathan Stern, Distinguished Research Fellow, Oxford Institute for Energy StudiesCarlos Torres Diaz, Director Power and Gas Market Research, Rystad Energy

The consequences of energy price spikes and massive wholesale market volatility have not only hit the pockets of households and the balance sheets of industrial firms, but have also slowed the pace of deals for power purchase agreements (PPAs). Will the energy crisis and the threat of regulatory intervention cause the expansion of renewables to wobble?Listen to a discussion on the key deals (and dealmakers) of 2021 and the outlook for this year.Guest: Luca Pedretti, COO and Co-Founder of PexaparkTo get more insights from Luca, you can join this Pexapark webinar: link

The Nordic region has not escaped the unprecedented energy price levels seen elsewhere, but according to this week’s guests, remains competitive compared to other parts of Europe and the world.Listen to a discussion on the outlook for electricity prices and the market consequences of the crisis. Could the region see the introduction of price caps and export limitations?Guests: Sigbjørn Seland, Chief Analyst, Storm GeoMia Bodin, Head of Analysis, Bodecker Partners

European wholesale gas prices have softened in recent days on forecasts of mild weather and the prospects of LNG imports but they are set to remain at historic highs for many weeks to come.This week’s pod discusses the crucial question of Russian gas supply, LNG shipments in the first quarter and Asian demand. When will the energy crisis ease?Guest: Trevor Sikorski, Head of Natural Gas, Oil and Carbon Research, Energy Aspects

Some German energy retailers went under last year, but many more could follow suit in 2022 as the consequences of soaring prices and poor hedging strategies become clear.Listen to a discussion about whether the existing marginal pricing model is fit for purpose, particularly as renewable energy capacity ramps up and nuclear and coal are phased out. Plus, how will the new German government cope with a potential supply crunch.Guest:Tobias Federico, Managing Director, Energy Brainpool

Carbon prices have tripled, gas markets have soared, Europe is burning through its coal stocks but at the same time the demand for green energy procurement has never been higher.Listen to a review of 2021 in carbon, environmental markets as well as in coal and gas and the key drivers for next year. Will all eyes be on the EC’s Fit-for-55 package or will the focus return to speculators in the EU ETS?Guests:Alessandro Vitelli, Freelance Carbon ReporterLaurence Walker, Coal and Gas Editor, MontelRachael Burnett, Environmental Markets Reporter, Montel

The collapse of dozens of UK energy retailers amid a spike in wholesale prices suggests too many were operating with just enough money to cover their expenses. Or does it reflect a failure of market design or of government policy?Listen to this week’s discussion about energy zombie firms and how to fix the UK’s energy market.Guest: Emma Pinchbeck, CEO, Energy UK

This week’s pod discusses the contested Nord Stream 2 pipeline following the temporary suspension of certification by the German regulator.Listen to a discussion on the latest developments regarding Gazprom’s attempts to gain approval and the bureaucratic, legal as well as geopolitical obstacles that stand in its way. When can we expect Russian gas to start flowing into Germany?Guest: Ana Stanic, Principal, E&A Law

This week we return to the European carbon market, where prices have soared following plans by the new German government to introduce a CO2 price floor. Listen to a discussion on the key market drivers and the outlook for the coming months. Could prices hit EUR 100/t by the end of the year or are they more likely to correct down?Guest: Ingvild Sorhus, Lead EU Carbon Analyst, Refinitiv

This week our attention turns to COP26 that ended last weekend in Glasgow. Was there a gulf between the technical jargon used by the conference participants and wider the global climate crisis affecting many parts of the world?Listen to a discussion on the agreement reached and the implications for carbon markets. How far away are we from a global carbon price?Guests:Lambert Schneider, Research Coordinator for International Climate Policy at Germany’s Institute for Applied EcologyAndrei Marcu, Executive Director of the European Roundtable on Climate Change and Sustainable Transition.

This week we focus on Europe’s Guarantee of Origin (GO) market and discuss Norway’s plans to exit the system. What form could such a GO Nexit take and how will the country be able to attract new industry wishing to source green electricity?Listen to a discussion on the Norwegian proposal, current market dynamics and how many EU GOs the UK will import this year and next in the wake of its departure from the EU.Guest: Adam White, Secretary General, RECS International

This week we speak to a regulator, a first for the pod, about how the French watchdog has dealt with the country’s energy crisis. Will more French suppliers go under, and what, if anything can be done to shield industry from very high prices?Listen to a discussion on whether the current market design is fit for purpose, and what the CRE is doing to combat market abuse.Guest: Dominique Jamme, Managing Director, CRE

Spanish measures to reform energy markets and the EU ETS are an attempt to shield households and industry from high prices, but the intervention may scare away investment and slow the growth of PPAs.Listen to a discussion on the reforms Madrid plans for energy markets, domestic and international reactions and what the tinkering may achieve.Guests: Pedro Linares, Professor, Universidad Pontificia ComillasJavier Revuelta, Senior Principal, Afry

Poland may be one of the last bastions of coal in Europe but exponential growth in solar capacity has propelled it to a top five ranking on the continent.Listen to a discussion on the outlook for renewables, and how the country plans to cope with a shortfall in capacity from 2025.Guest: Pawel Czyzak, Head of Energy and Climate, Instrat.

Germany’s coalition partners have moved beyond speed dating and are now starting to thrash out the details of an agreement to form a new government.Listen to a discussion on Germany’s path to decarbonisation and why the country needs to roll out more renewables at a faster rate – especially given the current global energy crisis and soaring fossil fuel prices.Guest: Claudia Kemfert, Head of Department Energy, Transportation and Environment,  German Institute for Economic Research

UK and continental European gas prices plunged from record highs following comments by Vladimir Putin saying Russia was prepared to increase gas supply to Europe. Listen to a discussion on current price dynamics, calls for market intervention and black box trading.Guest: Wayne Bryan, Director, European Gas Research, Refinitiv

Europe’s energy-intensive sectors are already facing spiralling costs ahead of the winter demand season. In this week’s pod, listen to a discussion on the consequences of soaring wholesale electricity prices for the non-ferrous metals sector and why some firms are calling for market intervention. Also, hear a critical view of the guarantees of origin market.Guests: Alexander Arnesen, Head of Power Procurement, ElkemNick Keramidas, EU and Regulatory Affairs Director, MytilineosCillian O’Donoghue, Energy and Climate Change Director, Eurometaux