Montel Weekly

In the second of two episodes summarising the momentous energy events of 2022, we focus on the developments in the Nordic region, Germany and the coal and gas markets. Listen to a discussion on the impact of record low reservoir levels in Norway, ongoing nuclear issues in Sweden and Finland as well as increased political interference. How did Germany cope with the sudden loss of Russian gas, and what is the outlook for the global LNG and coal markets in 2023? Guests: Gert Ove Mollestad, Editor Norway, Montel; Olav Vilnes, Editor Nordics, Montel; Andreas Lochner, Editor Germany, Montel; Julia Demirdag, Germany Correspondent, Montel; Laurence Walker, Coal and Gas Editor, Montel. 

In the first of two episodes summarising the momentous energy events of 2022, we focus on the dramatic developments in guarantees of origin market, compare the expansion of renewables in Spain and Italy and discuss ongoing nuclear problems in France. Will next year bring relief to strained markets, or will concerns over security of supply linger? Tune in next week for part two.Guests: Rachael Burnett, Correspondent Spain, Montel; Enza Tedesco, Correspondent Spain, Montel; Chris Eales, Editor France, Montel; Muriel Boselli, Correspondent, France, Montel.

Concerns over a supply shortfall are rising as much of Europe experiences a cold snap. Gas storage units are full, Russian gas is still flowing and industrial demand is almost down by a quarter, but what is the outlook for the coming months and the coming winter? Listen to a discussion on the key supply and demand fundamentals, and the impact of easing Covid lockdowns in China on LNG flows. Could wholesale gas prices return to EUR 300/MWh seen last August?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Nadia Martin Wiggen, Energy Analyst, Pareto and Eleni Papadopoulou, Lead Gas LNG Insights Research, Kpler

Many EU nations are introducing revenue caps and/or windfall taxes on power production to help consumers cope with soaring energy costs. The European Commission has also proposed wholesale gas market ceiling of EUR 275/MWh. Listen to a discussion why some member states have labelled this as “joke” and why price caps could have a long-term detrimental effect on Europe and will not alleviate the current gas crisis. Would issuing EU bonds be a better option?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Ana Stanic, Principal, E&A Law.

Iceland has dodged an energy crisis gripping most of Europe with spiralling costs for households and industrial consumers. While the North Atlantic island nation is self-sufficient in energy, listen to a discussion on why its largest utility Landsvirkjun recently renegotiated a supply contract with one of its industrial consumers. Also, hear about Iceland's energy successes, the prospects of exports but also why Landsvirkjun is concerned about prospective changes to guarantees of origin regulation.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Hördur Arnarson, CEO, Landsvirkjun.

GO prices have risen almost fivefold this year amid concerns over supply and robust demand. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for the GO market, forthcoming regulatory changes and why an exit by Norway, a key supplier of the certificates, now looks increasingly unlikely. Will prices soar beyond EUR 8 and remain there in the months ahead?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Adam White, Secretary General, RECS International                  Leo Robert, Green Power Analyst, Greenfact

An acceleration of the energy transition will put increased stress on Europe’s power system. Energy market stakeholders across the board will need to adopt a more holistic cross-border approach to managing infrastructure in order to ensure the entire system is fit for purpose for green growth. Listen to a discussion on where the current challenges are and how vulnerable the power sector is to attacks, both physical and virtual.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Arne Svendsen, Vysus Group

Warmer than average weather across Europe in combination with full gas storage facilities and an LNG supply glut should not obscure the fact that Europe could still experience a shortage of the fuel over the winter. Of course the winter weather will be decisive, but also gas demand from other parts of the world that could divert shipped cargoes. Listen to a discussion on why security of supply is not guaranteed.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Bjarne Schiedrop and Ole Hvalbye, Commodity Analysts at SEB

A mild spell this autumn has calmed spiralling prices in Europe’s gas and power markets for now, enabling gas storage levels to brim near full capacity. Listen to a discussion on La Nina (and El Nino), the Polar Vortex, sudden stratospheric warning and the north Atlantic oscillation. Will a mild winter save Europe's energy crisis?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Amy Hodgson, Meteorologist, Atmospheric G2

The European Commission this week proposed a flurry of measures to lower wholesale prices, shield consumers from perceived market failure and to smooth out “excessive volatility”. Listen to a discussion on how “manipulation” has driven gas prices and why intervention in the form of a price cap is necessary. In the medium term, Europe’s energy markets may need more radical overhaul.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Simone Mori, Head of Europe, Enel

Heavy rainfall over the past few weeks has alleviated some concerns over hydropower supply in southern Norway, boosting reservoir levels from near record lows. While electricity rationing may be off the table, prices remain elevated in some areas. Listen to a discussion on the market outlook over the coming winter in the Nordic region and in continental Europe.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guests: Marcus Eriksson, Lead Analyst, European Power, Refinitiv, Ole Tom Djupskås, Nordic Power Market Expert, Refinitiv.

Finland is in the midst of an energy war, with households, industry and the power sector needing to stand together to get through the coming winter. Listen to a discussion on how the country is already preparing for blackouts, as it pins its hopes on the start-up of the much-delayed Olkiluoto 3 reactor, increased wind output and mild weather. Could the lights go out in Helsinki this winter?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Jukka Ruusunen, CEO, Fingrid.

Spain has implemented measures aimed at shielding energy users from soaring prices but the move has had little impact on reducing the country´s demand for gas and may have scared off investors. Listen to a discussion on the effect the Spanish intervention has had so far and why it may not be suitable at a wider EU level. And does Europe face even greater challenges in the winter of 2023/24?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Ana Barillas, Head of Iberia, Aurora Energy Research.

The European Commission has proposed several emergency measures aimed at shielding households and businesses from price shocks, and has indicated that it also plans deeper reforms to the current wholesale energy market design. Listen to a discussion on the current sentiment in Brussels - what proposals are on the table and how effective will they be in mitigating soaring prices?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, Montel Guest: Siobhan Hall, Brussels Correspondent, Montel.

France has touted a huge nuclear recovery, but experts question the ability of EDF to bring back a reactor a week between October and January. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for French nuclear availability for the coming winter. Should market participants place their trust in promises that reactors will be online in the New Year?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Chris Eales, Editor France, MontelEmeric De Vigan, Vice President Power, KeplerYves Le Thieis, Vice President, Compass Lexecon.

Politicians have finally threatened action to “fix” a broken energy market that could impoverish households and drive industry out of Europe. Listen to a discussion on what needs fixing and a passionate defence of the marginal pricing model, where the most expensive power plant sets the wholesale price. What short-fixes are urgently required, and how could policymakers reduce the risk of future energy price shocks?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuest: Stephen Woodhouse, Director at Afry Management Consulting.

Germany looks set to meet its gas storage target well ahead of winter, and some are optimistic the country can muddle through peak demand when the weather turns cold. But others fear sharp drawdowns from November could result in shortages – and price volatility - particularly if Russia were to permanently halt flows through the Nord Stream pipeline. Listen to a discussion on how the country’s central buyer, the Trading Hub Europe, could bring volumes to the market and the impact on prices.Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Bjørn Inge Vik, Gas Analyst, Volue                  Henning Gloystein, Director - Energy, Climate and Resources, Eurasia Group                

Drought, heatwaves, weak river and hydro levels, combined with record low French nuclear output and dwindling gas supplies are driving energy prices to fresh highs on a daily basis. Aluminium producers and fertiliser firms have already announced closures across Europe. Listen to a discussion on the outlook for industry over the months ahead. Will it experience demand reduction or destruction?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Tobias Federico, CEO, Energy Brainpool                  Mark Turner, Partner, Baringa                  Alexander Andresen, Head of Power Procurement, Elkem.

Plans by Norway to impose restrictions on electricity exports if the country’s hydropower reservoir levels drop below critical levels have created uproar at home and abroad. Listen to a discussion on what is currently on the table, the reaction from market participants, and the choices facing policy makers ahead of a difficult winter. What are the repercussions of limiting power flows, and is the proposal a sign that some countries are retreating into isolationist energy policies? Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Marius Holm Rennesund, Partner, Thema Consulting,                   Geir Brønmo, Principal Afry,                   Johanees Bruun, Director for Electricity Markets, Energinet. 

Europe could be forced to extend voluntary reductions in gas consumption to mandatory measures as Russia plays “hardball” by curbing gas supplies before some EU nations like Germany can find alternative sources. Listen to a discussion on the winter outlook and the options – apart from rationing – open to governments and regulators. In the event of mandatory rationing, how would this be organised?Host: Richard Sverrisson, Editor-in-Chief, MontelGuests: Nadia Martin Wiggen, Partner and Analyst, Pareto Securities                   Leon Izbicki, Associate, Natural Gas, Energy Aspects.