Climas - Southwest Climate Podcast

In the May 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss a range of issues related to that most pressing question this time of year - "What's the Monsoon Forecast?!".  They run through the last month of weather, what we might expect from June given historical patterns and extremes, and how much faith we can put in forecasts this time of year (hint, it's tough to make a good monsoon forecast). The podcast wraps with a reminder about the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game. We piloted the game last year, and this year there's a new and improved interface and some fun prizes.  Stay tuned to the end of the podcast (or watch this space) for details on the game (how to play, prizes, etc.). 

In the April 2021 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido jump into winter weather and assessments of (drought) conditions.  First, they look back at winter so far and see how it stacks up to recent historical totals. Next, they take a closer look at the relationship between summer and winter precipitation, and the various phase combinations (wet/dry, dry/wet, wet/wet, dry/dry). They turn to some paleoclimate expertise to help them think about these patterns, as well as how drought has been defined (seasonal drought, megadrought, etc.), and how these terms get used in science communication and the media.

In the Mar 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the winter in the Southwest, and whether it lived up to expectations for a La Niña winter. They also go over streamflow, snowpack, and start a deeper dive into reservoirs, based on a listener question from last month (send in your questions if you have them!). They dabble a bit in the seasonal forecasts and talk about some of the key things they will be watching over the next 3-4 months, namely how fire season evolves, and when we can (reasonably) start looking ahead towards monsoon onset. They wrap up with a brief preview of monsoon-game 2.0, and hint at what we have planned.

In the February 2021 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido jump back into discussing winter conditions in the Southwest. This includes what happened so far in 2021 with a few runs of storms that affected parts of Arizona and New Mexico. This also includes the role that La Niña may be playing this winter (snowpack, streamflow forecasts, rain/snow events, etc.), and how this compares to previous winters and La Niña events. They also discuss what we might expect for the rest of the "wet" winter season (really, Feb-Mar) in the arid Southwest. 

In the Dec 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss drought, La Nina, and what to expect (or at least hope for) in 2021. First, they recap the event that swept through on Dec 9-11, to talk through how different locations in the region fared in terms of precip.  Next, they transition into the drought situation, which is currently looking pretty dire for the region - and discuss 'just how much worse can it get' - given much of the region is at Exceptional Drought (D4, the highest category on the US Drought Monitor), looking to some past events for comparison. They wrap things up with some 2021 predictions - things they think could (or hope might) happen in 2021.

In the November episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss weather and climate in the Southwest, including what we might expect over the next few months.  They discuss La Niña and what this might mean for the Southwest, including implications of La Niña following a much drier than average monsoon and what the historical record says about just how unprecedented this pattern might be (dry monsoon, dry winter). Finally, they take a closer look at fire, and how the season has progressed in the Southwest, given the lack of rain, and what we might watch for going into next year's fire season.

In the October 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido open up with something fun - with a quick rundown of the Monsoon Game 2020, congratulating Mike (for his CLIMAS podcast team victory, with 33 points) and Aaryn O with his overall victory (56 points). Next, they look back on the monsoon, and try to make sense of some of the reasons that might have contributed to the widespread below average (or even record driest) conditions in the Southwest. They take a closer look at some of the mechanisms that might be in play and review a few papers that address the role of climate change in a changing monsoon. Finally, they look forward (begrudgingly) at winter 2020-2021, which is lining up to be either a moderate or strong La Niña, and the discuss the implications of forecasts for a drier than average winter stacking on top of a very dry monsoon.

In the September 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reflect on this year's monsoon.  The monsoon is not over, but at this point it is clear it will come in on the dry side of things. They discuss some of the reasons why, and how this below average monsoon compares across the region and to other years. Zack also recounts some of our Slack/text conversations about the monsoon and maps them onto the 5 stages of grief framework. They also discuss tropical storm activity in the eastern Pacific and talk through the monsoon game for August. There is not much on the horizon for the rest of September, but we have been surprised before, so here's hoping!

In the August 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss "what is going on with monsoon 2020?!" This includes a review of different locations around the U.S. Southwest, where some locales are just barely hitting long-term averages, while others are running at record or near-record driest levels (so far). They also cover some of the factors driving these patterns, what we might expect in the 2nd half of the monsoon, and where this ranks in terms of the regional precipitation records (and unmet expectations). They wrap with a discussion of the monsoon game, which is fun despite the relatively dry conditions - especially for those that leaned on the dry side of their guesses in Arizona. The results for July are posted below, and congrats to Doug D on topping the July leaderboard. We also finally have some podcast gear (shirts and mugs).  You can order them at https://teespring.com/stores/the-southwest-climate-podcast. We set the prices at wholesale co

In the July 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido update their discussion of the 2020 wildfire season, which is turning out to be quite active for Arizona (while New Mexico is relatively quiet). Next, they move on to monsoon 2020, focusing on what the outlooks and forecasts had to say about this year, how this slow start compares to previous years, and asking the question ‘does a late start matter?’ for the overall seasonal totals (hint: it’s complicated). They also include a discussion of “key numbers” for the monsoon and a discussion of some recent literature about the role of widespread precipitation events and regional monsoon precipitation totals. They are joined at the end by Ben McMahan to talk a bit about the monsoon guessing game - where they discuss the guesses they received for July and look forward to seeing even more people play for August and September - Details Below: Monsoon Game Details: Ben, Zack, and Mike developed a monsoon game that anyone ca

In the June 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to talk about the last month of weather (including what Zack has coined the "TooSoon"), the current conditions (including the wildfire situation) and look forward to the monsoon. The monsoon may have officially started on June 15th, but they discuss why we are probably at least a few weeks away from seeing much in the way of rain. Also, we developed a 'play at home' game for guessing monthly monsoon totals, and we're excited to open this up to the general public. You can enter the game (and fill out a short survey about the podcast if you want at https://uarizona.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_eA1GfWVmsatWDLD The link explains the game, and Zack also lays out the rules and points on the podcast.  The game will be for the months of July, August, and September, so you have till June 30th to get your July guesses in.  We'll run another entry for August in July, and so on. Happy Monsoon!

In the May 2020 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss a bit more about the winter that was, summer heat (and the current spring/May heat), the upcoming monsoon, and some of the seasonal hazards we see in the Southwest this time of year (heat, wildfire, air quality). They also look to the monsoon and summer seasonal outlooks and the factors affecting monsoon timing and intensity, offering some insight into what we can (or can't) say about monsoon forecasts (before each giving one of their own). They conclude with a bit of ENSO discussion, given the possible La Nina on the horizon.

In the Mar 2020 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss winter conditions across the Southwest, the state of snowpack and snow water equivalent around the west, and water supply and streamflow forecasts as we look to spring and summer.   Discussed in this Episode: Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation - P.C.D. Milly, K.A. Dunne https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6483/1252 UA Snowview: https://climate.arizona.edu/snowview/ NRCS Snow Water Equivalent   NRCS Streamflow Forecasts (link)

Looking for the March 2020 Podcast?  We included the wrong bit.ly link in the email and the tweet leads to this page.  The Mar 2020 podcast is here: https://bit.ly/2IZf7GN In the Jan 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido take a look back at 2019 and the climate that was, and make some bold (and not so bold) predictions for what could happen in 2020.  They also dive into the tricky question regarding drought designations in the Southwest, and grapple with the question of "Are we (still) in a drought?" - a common question we get asked all the time.  The answer (as you might imagine) is more complicated, and depends on lots of things - tune in to hear their answer(s). Maps Discussed in this Episode: NCEI Precipitation and Temperature Ranks (Jan-Dec 2019) WWDT 36 and 72 month Standardized Precipitation Index

We hope that our climate/weather punditry can serve as a short break from concerns about the Covid19/coronavirus outbreak. We plan to continue producing this podcast remotely for the foreseeable future, and this podcast was recorded over Zoom. The sound quality might be a little different (or maybe you won't even notice), but we want to keep making the podcast during the stay-at/work-from-home order. We enjoy these discussions and hope you do too.  -Ben, Mike, and Zack In the April 2020 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido bring you the latest news and commentary about climate in the Southwest. First, they have a conversation about the links between COVID-19 and climate, and the challenges of research during a fast-moving event (You can skip to the 15:00 mark if you want to move straight to their discussion of southwestern climate). For the rest of the podcast, they move through an overview of events from winter and early spring - including just how wet and wildflowe

In the Dec 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido is back and joins Mike Crimmins for a discussion of the fall weather that was, and the winter weather that could be. This includes a very wet November, some of the factors that might affect our winter weather patterns, and the challenge of looking further out than a week or two during an ENSO-neutral winter. Happy Holidays!  We'll be back in (Jan) 2020 for another look at SW climate and weather. November 2019 ranks from National Centers for Environmental Information - ncei.noaa.gov

In the Nov 2019 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Ben McMahan sit down to talk through recent storm activity in the Southwest after a month-plus pause in the rain for much of the region during October. Fear not, Zack Guido will be back with us soon, but you'll have to listen to the podcast to hear why (hint: he has a pretty good excuse). With the rain finally falling in the Southwest as November is coming to a close, we wanted to get a quick mini-pod out there before the Thanksgiving holiday, and we'll be back sometime in December to take a closer look at what has been going on in the Southwest's weather and climate, and what the winter may have in store. As a note, this was recorded the week of Nov 18, when a series of storms had started rolling through the Southwest, but the mechanism for these storms is relatively similar to that of the week of Nov 25 (i.e. when this podcast is finally coming out).

In the Oct 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido recap the monsoon that was - or in many places, wasn't.  They discuss the monsoon overall (from June 15 - Sept 30), as well as recent September precipitation related to tropical storm activity and cut-off lows, to play the annual "is this monsoon or not?" game. They also think through how these events can juice seasonal totals, and take a closer look at the climatology of events (i.e. tropical storms) that supplement precipitation totals during the June 15 - Sept 30 monsoon period, and they consider how seasonal statistics might play out if we used a more restrictive definition for monsoon days and associated rainfall totals.  The figures below are what they discuss at the end of the podcast (iTunes and Android podcast listeners, visit https://www.climas.arizona.edu/podcast/oct-2019-southwest-climate-podcast-conservation-misery-and-lapse-rate-doping-edition to see these maps)

In the August 2019 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido deconstruct the monsoon to-date (or the Non-Soon as some are calling it). They take a look at the regional precipitation patterns, how 2019 compares to recent years, and how far back we have to look to find a monsoon that is as dry as this one, with implications for drought as well as regional temperatures. They also look forward to the next 4-5 weeks to see if there's any chance to catch up (not likely) or at least finish strong (a bit better chance of that). They also discuss the monsoon fantasy bets, realizing that it might be a bit more fun if it was raining more - but the upshot is for round 2, Zack beat Mike by a cumulative score of 145 to 143 (but noting that a score of 300 would have meant an "average" monthly total for the 3 stations they picked).

In the this "mini" episode (the Aug 2019 SW Climate Podcast Monsoon Mini) - Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido deconstruct the relative lack of monsoon activity across much of the region, as well as to discuss a few places that are receiving more precipitation than expected (looking at you Ajo). They recap some of the totals through Aug 7 and dive into the mechanics that have been driving this (relative lack of) activity. They also check the 1-2 week forecasts to see whether there is any hope for recovery in the latter half of the monsoon. Note 1: This was recorded on Aug 7, before the last round of activity (Aug 10 in particular in Tucson). Note 2: Zack and Mike huddled around our secondary recording option because Ben is on a fieldwork stint in Louisiana (but still managed to edit the podcast remotely), such is all of their dedication to the podcast!  The sound quality is mostly ok; however, the quality of the podcast content is exactly what you'd expect!  We'll go back to our normal routine for the next podc