Skift Airline Weekly Lounge

Call it our year-in-preview show. In this first episode of 2017, we look at some of the more interesting stories that are ushering in the airline industry’s new year. Of course, 2017 doesn’t promise answers to all our questions. But we can hope, can’t we? Some of those questions: Leisure demand was one of the defining stories of 2016—will the trend continue? Is the burgeoning low-cost longhaul model for real? What about premium travel? Will Airbus and Boeing see a rebound in aircraft orders? Will the CSeries continue the momentum it saw in 2016? Will Singapore Airlines finally get out of its rut? Where will Qantas fly its B787-900s? Will Ryanair or easyJet interline? Will the Gulf carriers continue to decelerate growth? Will Air Canada continue its aggressive expansion? And in the U.S., have we finally seen a peak in the mighty earnings cycle of 2015/2016?

If anybody needed a reminder that the airline business is an interesting business, they got it last week as Air Berlin announced it will be handing over a big chunk of itself to arch competitor Lufthansa. Will Air Berlin be saved by shrinking itself? Not stopping there, Lufthansa decided it would also become the full owner of Brussels Airlines. Are either of these acquisitions a good thing for Lufthansa? Meanwhile, Air Canada continues to treat the world like it’s a buffet, loading its plate with six new intercontinental routes last week. One thing fueling Air Canada’s aggressiveness is the B787, which, by the way, just crossed the five-year anniversary of its first delivery. Delta has set its sights on Boston, and that could spell trouble for JetBlue. And IAG has further deepened its alliance with Qatar Airways.

South African Airways finally published its fiscal year results for the 12 months ending March 2015. Yes, that’s 2015. And the result—a $442m net loss—wasn’t worth the wait. But with the Ebola scare and high oil prices now in the past, how is the airline doing today? The short answer: We’re not too encouraged. But its competitor Comair is doing pretty well. Kenya Airways seems to be on the mend. Unfortunately, Fastjet is skidding. Meanwhile in Asia, Singapore Airlines reported some ominous load factors and Cathay Pacific continues to endure severe revenue erosion. Not nearly as severe, but still surprisingly bad, is the revenue situation in the transatlantic market, where that cash cow is now wobbling. And in the U.S., two very successful carriers, Spirit and Frontier, face a surprisingly long list of challenges.

Because Frontier Airlines is a non-publicly-traded carrier (which, for one thing, means it doesn’t have earnings calls), it’s all the more interesting to interview the airline's CEO Barry Biffle. Of course, we asked about a possible merger with Spirit or a possible IPO. Not surprisingly, we didn’t get too far there, but Biffle did open up on some interesting topics, such as Frontier’s successful second quarter, unit revenue pressures and what it takes to grow capacity 20% per year. We talked fleet plans, engines, operations, network philosophy, the labor situation and Frontier's soon-to-arrive Havana service. Also, is there enough elbow room in the U.S. for three growing ULCCs–Frontier, Spirit and Allegiant? And how big of a threat do legacy carriers pose as they segment their seats to offer no-frills tickets at a no-frills price? No stone was left unturned. Come with us and explore Frontier!

Despite a major oil bust and the weakening currency that followed, Canada’s airlines continue to plod along. Make no mistake, macro issues are leaving a mark on the earnings reports of Air Canada and WestJet, but the story is more about resiliency than infirmity. Meanwhile, a similar story—one that also includes an oil bust, a weak currency and nonetheless profitable airlines—is playing out in Mexico, where its four airlines of size (Aeroméxico, Volaris, Interjet and VivaAerobus) posted mixed results. We finish with three other stories of survival. Avianca is surviving exposure to the Brazilian and Venezuelan economies. Aeroflot is surviving its country’s own oil and currency bust. And Israel’s El Al is surviving competitive threats from Turkish Airlines, Aeroflot and Hainan Airlines.

Qantas reported a best-ever annual result. Not bad for a company that’s 95 years old. And not bad for a company that was barely breaking even just a few years ago. Virgin Australia, on the other hand, with a 2% operating margin, isn’t breaking any records—well, any records you’d want to break, that is. And then across the Tasman Sea is Air New Zealand… way out there… all alone… with nothing to keep it company except a whopping 15% operating margin. From there, things take a bad turn as we check in on a number of troubled carriers in the world. Turkish Airlines, Pegasus, Gol and Nok Air all had tales of woe in the second quarter (although Gol’s tale of woe at least was a lot better than it was a year ago). Finnair is also doing better, but how good is that? And lastly, will Scott Kirby’s arrival at United give the airline enough star power to finally deliver on its vaunted potential?

Korean carriers Asiana and Korean Air are being squeezed between rapid growth from Chinese carriers and new capacity coming out of Japan. But nonetheless, the two Korean carriers posted some of the most improved earnings among widebody carriers worldwide. Japan Airlines and All Nippon, meanwhile, both regressed in their year-over-year earnings despite a strengthening yen and lower fuel costs. Dismal demand is the culprit. In South America, LATAM is wrestling with the economic breakdown in Brazil as well as pressures to the global cargo market. Jet Airways posted its fifth consecutive profitable quarter. Cebu Pacific continues to take the world by storm. Air Berlin continues to struggle. And Garuda posted one of the worst declines in year-over-year Q2 profits. And lastly, is Delta making the right bet with its newly unveiled Delta One suite?

One of the bright spots in the Lufthansa Group’s second quarter earnings report was its Swiss unit, which bested Lufthansa mainline, the Austrian unit and even the healthy maintenance unit. Meanwhile, Eurowings was the worst performing airline of the group, with a negative one percent margin—but that was a great improvement from the first quarter. All in all, it added up to Lufthansa underperforming IAG but outperforming Air France/KLM, a scenario that’s become a recurring storyline. In Canada, the storyline seems to be changing as Air Canada outperformed WestJet. Icelandair had one of its best second quarters ever. Panama’s Copa continues to weather economic challenges and this time with hopeful signs that the worst is behind them. Indigo is cruising with a 15% operating margin. And, lastly, we discuss Delta’s Monday malfunction.

The second quarter year-over-year profit margin improved at Air France/KLM, but only because of a huge windfall from fuel. In fact, the real story is that the airline group is largely missing out on profits that normally would come from such a lift from fuel. Another airline group, IAG (the parent company of British Airways, Iberia, Vueling and Aer Lingus), did better despite the Brexit vote. But IAG’s results were nothing like Ryanair, who actually lowered unit costs even after excluding fuel, which lowered costs further still. In the U.S., JetBlue continued the profit parade, but it did so rather modestly compared to the giant profits of its peers. Spirit is still cruising along, but conditions in the U.S. now leave the LCC slightly outside its comfort zone. It shows when you compare its results to, say, Southwest. And then there’s Allegiant, who at the moment is certainly comfortable towering over everyone.

Earnings season is in full swing and really there’s too much to talk about within the average commute or treadmill run. So we’ll talk fast. And in this episode, our fast talk starts with American Airlines’ billion-dollar quarter and, naturally, how that compares to rivals Delta and United. Speaking of which, United posted a second-quarter operating margin that was competitive with Delta and AA (although it didn’t beat them.) Could United at last be truly closing in on its peers? Meanwhile, Southwest and Alaska Airlines posted margins that made the legacy carriers look like a bunch of pikers and underscored that it’s been a golden age for U.S. airlines. Ah, but have the U.S. airlines peaked? And lastly, we revisit our recent conversation about Azul, as the airline reached out to us with some interesting and valuable info.

Delta Airlines gets a lot of play in this episode, but it’s not because we’re obsessed with Delta. Rather, there are two practical reasons: First, Delta is the the earliest of the big airlines to report. Secondly, with Delta’s global reach, you can learn a lot about the whole industry from this airline. What did we learn? Revenues continue dropping, but so did costs. Delta remains bullish on its West Coast and transatlantic markets. And, its operational performance continues to dazzle. Less dazzling was Norwegian, which posted an 8% operating margin in Q2. But 8% doesn’t inspire much confidence that the low-cost longhaul carrier will have a great year. And Qatar Airways, for the first time, reported its full-year earnings. We try to unpack the Gulf carrier’s somewhat complicated report.

Brazil’s Azul is no doubt an innovative airline. But has it become too clever by half with its low-cost longhaul venture? A couple years into the experiment, we discuss it in this episode. Meanwhile, its competitor Gol is asking for relief from its bondholders. When the economy recovers, what are the prospects for both of these airlines? Further north, a rumor has been floated that Delta is interested in buying a piece of WestJet. Etihad might be wishing it never bought into Alitalia. But everybody among U.S. carriers wants a piece of Havana, and the U.S. DOT only had so much to dole out. Malaysia Airlines has a new CEO. And we take a look ahead at the U.S. earnings reports, which will start hitting the streets this week.

Turkish Airlines and its cross-town rival Pegasus were seeing trouble in their business before the attack on Istanbul’s Ataturk International Airport. In this episode we try to assess—or at least speculate—how the attack will further hurt the two airlines’ prospects. Also, could Turkish’s business model, which relies heavily on sixth-freedom traffic, be especially vulnerable here? But this episode isn’t all glum. In fact, we discuss new routes announced by Allegiant—currently the most profitable airline on Earth as measured by operating margin—that are a pretty big departure from its business model. Will they work? And lastly, as we’ve crossed the sixth-month mark for the year, we take a look back at the half-year-in-review. In this segment, we cover a lot of ground including the Big Three Gulf carriers, Transavia, Virgin Australia, Azul and Eurowings, to name a few.

In the wake of Brexit, will the U.K. be able to remain in the European Common Aviation Area? We don’t know. But we do know that if the U.K. is relegated to some other status, it would obviously impact airlines inside and outside the U.K. In this episode we do a quick survey of airlines such as British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Flybe, easyJet, Norwegian and Aer Lingus and attempt to size up each of their levels of exposure to Brexit fallout. Frontier Airlines had a terrific first quarter, but not as terrific as its peers—does that matter? Air Mauritius has returned to profitability, but is it sustainable in a region that’s likely to only become more competitive? In Canada, NewLeaf is looking to take flight in July, and WestJet appears to be well aware of it.

Wherever you go in the airline industry, you’re never too far from Singapore Airlines, a carrier that played a primary role in—count ‘em— four of the bigger storylines last week. Singapore is pulling out of Brazil. In India, Singapore will likely be a key beneficiary of the end of the 5/20 rule. Singapore and United oddly seem to be rumbling on a San Francisco route. And Virgin Australia is asking Singapore and other investors for more money. In non-Singaporean news, United Airlines unveiled a plan to generate $3 billion in value. The U.K. is voting on whether to leave the European Union and take its enormous aviation market along with it. We talk about whether Frontier’s day-of-week-specific flying signals a change in approach for the airline. And, lastly, is Alaska really considering keeping the Virgin America brand?

Scandinavia’s SAS posted a pretty rough quarter despite huge tailwinds from its healthy home economy and cheap fuel. Fierce competition, labor concerns and operational problems all share the blame. Is SAS’s long-haul strategy the answer? Or will it take a merger? Meanwhile in Africa, Fastjet is failing fast, posting an ugly 2015 full-year result. Clearly, it is tough to be a start-up airline on a continent rife with bureaucracy and protectionism. The turboprop carrier Flybe achieved a small annual profit, which was a big deal. Will the airline’s resurgence continue? And for U.S. carriers Delta, American, United and JetBlue, unit revenue declines haven’t stopped—there was hope they would’ve by now—and costs have stopped falling. That’s a recipe for margin pressure.

United last week revealed its new premium experience named Polaris, which includes its business class cabin. Ironically, the big design features in the cabin are all about missing the experience, because United wants its passengers to sleep right through it. But in addition to being optimized for sleep, the cabin is also optimized for something else: seat density. Does United have the right formula here? Also, how does Polaris compare to American’s and Delta’s business classes? Low oil prices are good for airlines in general, but are they good for airlines in oil markets? In this episode we do a quick survey of oil markets around the world and how their airlines are faring. Mexico’s Interjet posted a tepid profit in the first quarter. And American Airlines made a huge change to its loyalty program that was, well, yawn inducing.

Ryanair is like a runaway train, in that nothing seems to be able to stop it. Despite unfavorable hedges, terrorism, air traffic control strikes and plenty of economic weakness, the airline still managed to turn a profit during the historically weak first quarter. A 6% operating margin never looked so good. How did Ryanair’s performance compare to that of Wizz Air and easyJet—two airlines that also had solid off-peak quarters? Also, with all three of those airlines growing, when will they start stepping on each other’s toes? Outside Europe, China’s HNA Aviation is purchasing a piece of the struggling Virgin Australia. Is it a smart move? Plus we have an optimistic take on the important, even if not-so-interesting, TSA situation in the U.S.  

Why are we seeing such different results from the two big Korean airlines? Korean Air again overcame systemic challenges to deliver a standout performance in the first quarter. And although the fuel situation certainly helped, the story wasn’t only about fuel. If you don’t believe us, just ask Korean’s chief rival Asiana, who struggled mightily in the same quarter. And although there’s no sign of a joint venture happening between Korean Air and Delta, we discuss it anyway, because that’s how we are. Terrorism is—for good reason—on the minds of airlines around the world right now. It’s wreaking havoc on the balance sheet of Turkey’s Pegasus, which is losing a lot of money. But terrorism might be having the opposite effect for Thai Airways, which has made a brilliant return to profitability. We touch on SpiceJet, a comeback story in its own right. And, of course, we talk about what last week’s horrible crash means for Egyptair in the longer run.

Emirates last week posted an operating margin nearing 10% for its fiscal year. That’s significantly better than the 7% the year before and a whole lot better than the 5%, 4%, and 3% posted in the years prior to that. Is the airline permanently out of its funk? Turkish Airlines meanwhile is struggling in the face of serious revenue declines brought on by fears of terrorism, among other things. To make matters worse, costs are rising too, which is particularly nasty when combined with low revenues. Still, Turkish remains undeterred if its 19% capacity growth rate is any indication. By the way, is such growth sustainable? Plus we check in on two very sick airlines, Gol and Air Berlin. And Frontier posted a mediocre Q4 in what was otherwise a terrific year.