Manifold

Andrew Song is a co-founder of Make Sunsets, a company focused on addressing climate change through solar geoengineering. The company launches balloons filled with sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the stratosphere with the aim of reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth.https://makesunsets.com/Previous Manifold episodes on climate:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/casey-handmer-terraform-industries-and-a-carbon-neutral-future-57https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/tim-palmer-status-and-future-of-climate-modeling-16https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/klaus-lackner-on-carbon-capture-climate-change-and-physics-40Steve and Andrew discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:35) - Andrew's Background and Swimming Career (06:37) - Journey into Startups and Y Combinator Experience (11:30) - Make Sunsets: Concept and Science (32:53) - Exploring Supersonic and Balloon-Based Solutions (33:45) - Environmental Concerns and Biodegradable Solutions (36:13) - Business Model and Cooling Credits (39:26) - Future Prospects and Climate Modeling Chal

Manifold has its own Discord channel!  https://discord.gg/dvcHS6NXThe purpose of the channel is to create a community of listeners with shared interests. It developed from a series of in-person meetups with Steve in cities like SF, NYC, Singapore, Beijing, Shanghai.Chapter markers:(00:00) - Manifold Discord Channel, Live Q&A (02:36) - Genomics and Predictive Genetics (09:28) - Trump Administration, Epstein, and Political Commentary (29:42) - Missile Defense Systems: Historical Challenges and Modern Realities (36:48) - Failures and Cover-Ups in Missile Defense (45:23) - Developing Intellectual Taste and Productivity Tips Links related to Q&A:Best genomic predictor for cognitive ability: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1936401098345980207Ted Postol on missile defense: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/theodore-a-postol-nuclear-weapons-missile-technology-and-u-s-diplomacy-12Sputnik moment: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1873541234125316367China-US comparisons:https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/letter-fro

Shams was trained in theoretical physics before becoming an AI engineer at DeepMind and founding the company Mutable, which was acquired by Google. He is now lead engineer for Google's software agent group.Steve and Omar discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:18) - Journey from Physics to AI (10:51) - Elon Tried to Buy DeepMind (16:52) - Building Mutable and Auto Wiki as Context for LLMs (33:39) - The Value of AI Talent and Meta's AI Hiring Spree (42:58) - AI and The Workforce (58:02) - The Intersection of Physics and AI Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and oth

Patrick McGee is a longtime FT business reporter with extensive experience reporting on China. He is the author of the highly acclaimed Apple in China: the capture of the world's greatest company. Steve and Patrick discuss the history of Apple and its impact on technology development in China. “The best book about Apple ever written, one of the best books about China ever written, and one of the best books about tech, period.” —Ben Thompson, Stratechery. Apple in China on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Apple-China-Capture-Greatest-Company/dp/1668053373(00:00) - Introduction to Patrick McGee and his Book (03:05) - The Apple-Foxconn Partnership (07:07) - China's Industrial Transformation and Apple's Role (32:48) - Automation Challenges in Apple's Production (34:50) - Chinese Innovation and Huawei's Rise (36:15) - The Impact of US-China Trade Tensions (38:08) - Apple's Internal Struggles and Future Outlook (48:56) - Hidden gems in the book Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisat

Steve and TP discuss the implications of the recent air battle between India and Pakistan, which involved over 100 fighter jets and took place entirely beyond visual range (BVR). What is sensor fusion, and have the Pakistanis achieved it with Chinese technology? Does the PL-15 outrange and outperform Western air-to-air missiles? What are the implications for US-China military competition?Read TP Huang on X:  https://x.com/tphuang (00:00) - GODZILLA IS DOWN! India-Pakistan Clash and Chinese Military Technology with TP Huang — #87 (00:32) - Introduction to the India-Pakistan Conflict (02:15) - Details of the Air Battle (04:40) - Expert Analysis by TP Huang (08:34) - Analysis of Air Battle Tactics and Technology (12:40) - Role of Chinese Technology (16:13) - Implications for Future Warfare (25:23) - Indian and Pakistani Military Strategies (34:34) - Unexpected Aggression: India's Miscalculation (36:52) - Pakistan's Strategic Restraint (39:19) - The Rafale Controversy: A Deep Dive (43:08) - Electronic Warfare: My

Zihan Wang is an AI researcher at Northwestern University, where he works on vision-language models, robotics, and reinforcement learning. Previously, he interned at DeepSeek, contributing to projects like DeepSeek-V2.Zihan's homepage:  https://zihanwang314.github.io/(00:00) - Introduction (01:13) - Zihan's Background, CS and AI Research in China (11:09) - DeepSeek; Human capital flow from PRC to US (16:07) - DeepSeek, Open Source and AI Research (31:52) - Model Size and Performance Constraints (33:01) - Data Bottleneck in Pre-trained Models (34:12) - Transformer Architecture and Scaling Laws (36:30) - Efficiency in Model Training (47:44) - Chain of Experts Architecture (01:01:06) - Future of AI and Robotics Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU an

Dan Collins is Founder of Tyrell Chemical. He studied at Tsinghua University and spent 20 years working for companies like General Motors in China, helping to localize automotive manufacturing. Dan and Steve discuss tariffs, deindustrialization in America, the Go-Go days of rapid economic growth in PRC, and the future of the US-China relationship.Follow Dan on X: https://x.com/DanCollins2011(00:00) - Introduction (01:25) - Dan's Early Life and Education in Michigan (02:30) - Experiences in China, Tsinghua University (05:42) - China's Educational and Economic Transformation (14:39) - US-China Trade Relations and Joint Ventures (41:48) - China's Auto Market (42:38) - Weaponization of Customs and Nationalism (43:20) - Impact of Tariffs on US Manufacturing (44:28) - Chaos in Global Trade and Supply Chains (49:34) - The Golden Screw Theory and Manufacturing Dependence (51:50) - Strategies for Reindustrializing the US Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve

This episode is a co-release with the podcast Seeking Truth From Facts: https://seekingtruthfromfacts.substack.com/(00:00) - Introduction (01:11) - China AI (02:30) - DeepSeek (04:21) - Redirecting Human Capital from finance (08:42) - US Policy and Financial Incentives (12:54) - China Meritocracy (24:24) - Trump's Tariffs and China (37:12) - European Defense and Security (41:49) - US-China-Europe Relations Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the University of Oregon. Hsu is a startup founder (SuperFocus.ai, SafeWeb, Genomic Prediction, Othram) and advisor to venture capital and other investment firms. He was educated at Caltech and Berkeley, was a Harvard Junior Fellow, and has held faculty p

Steve speaks with ARX-Han, an anonymous writer, about his book "Incel."(00:00) - Introduction (02:09) - Discussing the Novel 'Incel' (06:08) - Character Analysis and Literary Influences (13:32) - Themes of Evolutionary Psychology and Nihilism (18:38) - Historical Context and Modern Inceldom (26:18) - Impact of Dating Apps on Modern Relationships (32:47) - Representation and Character Dynamics (40:21) - Literary Comparisons and Philosophical Depth (45:38) - Philosophical Underpinnings of Meaning (48:14) - The Hard Problem of Consciousness (50:38) - Free Will and Determinism (52:53) - Darwinian Nihilism and Nick Land (58:17) - Historical Perspectives on East Asian Civilization (01:03:11) - The State of Literary Fiction (01:16:45) - AI and Literature (01:19:44) - AI and Human Meaning Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previ

Callum Williams is a senior economics writer for The Economist. He was educated at Oxford, Harvard, and Cambridge, and is the author of The Classical School: The Birth of Economics in 20 Enlightened Lives.(00:00) - Introduction (02:07) - US-Russia Relations (03:18) - Trump and US Foreign Policy (05:30) - Sanctions and Their Impact on Russia (09:28) - Economic Resilience and Sanctions Evasion (14:14) - Historical Context and Predictions (29:37) - US Wealth Inequality (40:37) - Debating Wealth Inequality and Welfare States (42:35) - Homelessness and Government Intervention (45:18) - Employment Rates and Economic Behavior (50:12) - San Francisco's Homelessness Crisis (53:46) - US vs. Europe: Economic Divergence (01:06:06) - Cultural Differences in Economic Growth (01:10:48) - AI and Job Market Transformation (01:13:50) - Challenges in AI Adoption (01:15:16) - Consumer vs. Business Tech Adoption (01:15:56) - Slow AI Integration in Businesses (01:17:34) - AI in Customer Service (01:23:48) - Resistance to AI (01:26

Misha Laskin is CEO of Reflection.ai. He was trained in theoretical physics at Yale and Chicago before becoming an AI scientist. He made important contributions in Reinforcement Learning as a researcher at Berkeley, Google DeepMind, and on the Google Gemini project.https://x.com/MishaLaskinSteve and Misha discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (00:47) - Misha's Early Life and Education (03:50) - Transition from Physics to AI (05:47) - First Startup Experience (07:19) - Discovering Deep Learning (08:06) - Academic Postdoc at Berkeley (14:31) - Joining Google DeepMind (16:36) - Reinforcement Learning and Language Models (26:42) - Challenges and Future of AI (48:30) - Unique Perspective from Physics Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.–Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Ins

Taylor Ogan is Chief Executive Officer of Snow Bull Capital, based in Shenzhen, China. His firm invests in Chinese technology companies, with a focus on areas such as clean energy, AI, and automation. Part 1 of this discussion, from November 2023: https://www.manifold1.com/episodes/taylor-ogan-snow-bull-capital-chinas-tech-frontier-the-view-from-shenzhen-47 Steve and Taylor discuss: (00:00) - Introduction (01:23) - Shenzhen: The Tech Hub of China (04:14) - The Rise of Huawei and Its Impact (06:59) - DeepSeek: China's AI Breakthrough (11:32) - The Role of Government in Tech Development (26:17) - Humanoid Robots: The Next Frontier (38:01) - Huawei and PLA? (40:49) - The Semiconductor Race (43:13) - Huawei's accelerated chip development (45:13) - Government's Role in Technological Advancements (46:21) - China's Domestic Tech Ecosystem (48:56) - Venture Capital and Entrepreneurship in China (51:57) - Corporate Culture and Innovation (55:48) - China's Competitive Edge in Various Industries (01:00:00) - Perceptions

Ken Liu (born 1976) is an American author of science fiction and fantasy. Liu has won multiple Hugo and Nebula Awards for his novel translations and original short fiction. Liu's short story "The Paper Menagerie" is the first work of fiction, of any length, to win all of the Nebula, Hugo, and World Fantasy Awards. Besides his original work, Liu's translation of Liu Cixin's Chinese language novel The Three-Body Problem (the first in the Remembrance of Earth's Past trilogy) won the 2015 Hugo Award for Best Novel, making it the first translated novel to have won the award. He studied English Literature and Computer Science at Harvard College, and graduated from Harvard Law School. https://kenliu.name/ Steve and Ken discuss:  00:00 Meet Ken Liu: Acclaimed Sci-Fi and Fantasy Writer04:25 The Immigrant Experience and Cultural Perspectives09:22 Harvard, MSFT, HLS, Litigation15:01 The Art of Storytelling and Technology34:03 Controversy in AI Reasoning34:31 Technology Outstripping Science35:22 AI and the Arts38:30 The

(00:00) - Introduction: AI, Miltech, and Balance of Power (00:32) - DeepSeek AI R1 model (02:36) - DeepSeek: top performance, 30x efficient compute (10:37) - DeepSeek technical innovations (15:38) - The AI Race: U.S. vs. China (34:20) - Fighter Jets and Military Technology (42:54) - Fifth to Sixth Generation Fighter Programs (46:13) - Technology of China's 6th Generation Planes (52:20) - Chinese Sixth Generation Aircraft Capabilities (01:00:50) - Strategic Implications for the U.S. and Future Developments (01:27:48) - Disabling Military Bases (01:31:17) - Implications for the U.S. and China (01:35:26) - Future Defense Strategies and Realities Music used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hsu is Professor of Theoretical Physics and of Computational Mathematics, Science, and Engineering at Michigan State University. Previously, he was Senior Vice President for Research and Innovation at MSU and Director of the Institute of Theoretical Science at the Universit

Relevant links:Jim Haslam on X: https://x.com/jhas5Jim's Substack: https://jimhaslam.substack.com/Jim's book, "COVID-19: Mystery Solved," on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/COVID-19-Mystery-Solved-leaked-Chinese-ebook/dp/B0DPVT9LWV?ref_=ast_author_cp_dpChapters:(00:00) - A quick note on my interview with Jim Haslam (03:40) - Introducing Jim Haslam, author of "COVID-19: Mystery Solved" (04:51) - The DARPA DEFUSE Grant Proposal (08:52) - Ralph Baric and Genetic Engineering of Coronaviruses (20:10) - Danielle Anderson and the Wuhan BSL-4 Lab (24:38) - The Role of EcoHealth Alliance and Peter Daszak (29:28) - The Furin Cleavage Site Controversy (36:43) - NIAID Funding and the Wuhan Connection (40:53) - Capabilities and Limitations of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, Baric's Lab (44:41) - The DEFUSE Grant and Wuhan Institute of Virology (48:22) - RaTG13 Genome and Its Implications (50:34) - Kristian Anderson's Alarming Discovery (01:00:42) - Feb. 1 Teleconference with Fauci & Baric; Feb. 3 NAS Meeting (01:19:41

Joscha Bach is a German cognitive scientist, AI researcher, and philosopher known for his work on cognitive architectures, artificial intelligence, mental representation, emotion, social modeling, multi-agent systems, and the philosophy of mind. Links of interest:http://bach.ai/https://x.com/PlinzSteve and Joscha discuss:(00:00) - Introduction (01:26) - Growing up in the forest in East Germany (06:23) - Academia: early neural net pioneers, CS and Philosophy (10:17) - The fall of the Berlin Wall (14:57) - Commodore 64 and early programming experiences (15:29) - AGI timeline and predictions (19:35) - Scaling hypothesis, beyond Transformers, universality of information structures and world models (25:29) - Consciousness (41:11) - The ethics of brain interventions, zombies, and the Turing test (43:43) - LLMs and simulated phenomenology (46:34) - The future of consciousness research (48:44) - Cultural perspectives on suffering (52:19) - AGI and humanity's future (58:18) - Simulation hypothesis (01:03:33) - Liquid

This episode is an interview I did with the new podcast Information Theory. The host of Information Theory is an anonymous technologist trained in physics and machine learning.Information Theory Podcast on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@InformationTheoryPodInformation Theory Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PbxeOYInRuH4DBXOAOq5u?si=q90fZh8PRUut5c1XG4K7Sw (00:00) - Introduction to Information Theory podcast (01:19) - The education of a physicist (10:53) - Computational genomics (19:40) - Thinking styles and collaboration in theoretical physics (26:08) - Scientific progress and the Great Stagnation (40:39) - University research administration (45:05) - Reproducibility crisis (57:58) - Impact of basic research (01:03:16) - Critique of NIH and biomedical research (01:06:48) - Personal reflections on Trump's re-election and an inside view of the 47 transition (01:12:37) - Silicon Valley and US politics (01:15:30) - Concerns and hope for America's future Music used with permission from Blade

Pascal Lottaz is Associate Professor at Kyoto University’s Faculty of Law & HakubiCenter. His research area is Neutrality Studies - the study of neutrality as a concept in international relations, sociology, international law, diplomacy, political science, security, and history. Follow Pascal on X @PlottazPascal's YouTube channel:  https://www.youtube.com/@neutralitystudies (00:00) - Professor Pascal Lattaz's background, early life, and experiences in Japan (14:17) - Neutrality in international relations (20:07) - Ukraine's struggle for neutrality (28:44) - Debating the Ukraine conflict (37:50) - Physics, social sciences, and observer-independent reality (46:13) - The importance of dissent in open societies (47:01) - Russian resilience, NATO, escalation strategies, and potential outcomes (51:43) - European realism and U.S. influence (56:16) - Incentive structures and NATO dynamics (01:04:11) - Japan's strategic position and U.S. alliance (01:13:49) - Potential conflicts and proxy wars in East Asia (01:30:

(00:00) - Overview: 3 weeks in China (02:33) - The China knowledge problem: Grappling with Reality (06:54) - Physics seminars in Shanghai and Beijing (15:54) - Chinese academia, challenges in scientific culture (22:43) - Yu Min: Two Bombs, One Satellite (27:02) - He Jiankui and gene editing, plus the future of biotech in China (33:32) - China's AI and chip war strategy. Impact of U.S. policies on semiconductor industry (35:46) - Quiet confidence in China's technological advancements (37:17) - Discovering my father's history in Yunnan, etched in stone (41:04) - Climbing Jade Mountain on election night: Trump Triumph (48:31) - Shanghai modern infrastructure and technology (51:16) - High-speed rail in China (53:12) - Visit China - or at least watch some travel videos on YouTube!   Links to X posts made during my trip - check out the whole timelineduring this period. PPP and US vs PRC Real GDPhttps://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1851653168158949492 PhD student asks me whether Jews control US politics:https://x.com/hsu_

Han Feizi is the pseudonym of a columnist for Asia Times, who covers the Chinese economy, technology, and US-China competition. The author lives in Beijing, and has an extensive background in finance and investment banking.Han Feizi's articles for Asia Times: https://asiatimes.com/author/han-feizi/ Chapters:00:00 Introduction to the guest: Han Feizi01:39 What it's like in Beijing right now06:38 Modern Conveniences in Beijing12:11 What the economy feels like for ordinary people19:09 China's economic structure: consumption, infrastructure investment, Michael Pettis30:32 Currency Valuation and PPP: real PRC is significantly larger than US economy31:45 US high living standards and manufacturing competitiveness34:13 Globalization and its discontents40:15 Reversing globalization and the myth of American exceptionalism45:58 China's increasingly high quality standards and quality of life58:09 Whither China? Xi JinpingMusic used with permission from Blade Runner Blues Livestream improvisation by State Azure.--Steve Hs