Sharkey, Howes & Javer

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss personal income, the S&P 500, bond yields, and tax revenue. Persistent inflationary pressures and slow wage growth continue to catch up with American consumers, appearing to hit hourly wage earners the hardest. However, how fast your personal income grows depends on the state you live in. While North Dakota’s personal income contracted to -4.2% from the first quarter to end of second quarter of 2026, Wisconsin’s surged ahead at 6.2%. Where does Colorado fall on the spectrum? At first glance, recent core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation looks to have cooled, however, recent government updates revised earlier inflation figures downward, showing that price pressures were slightly lower than initially reported. What could this mean for price pressures moving forward? On the home front, U.S. property owners are in a strong financial position compared to recent years, with nearly 75% of mortgages reportedly having a loan-to-value ratio of 60% or less. Wha

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the different aspects of inflation, business and systems, and office spaces. Total U.S. household debt, which includes mortgages, auto loans, student loans, credit cards and more, has gradually increased over the years. But how much of that increase might be attributed to inflation? Has household debt grown faster than the overall cost of goods and services? M2, which includes highly liquid assets that can be converted into currency quickly, has grown to a four-year high. In 2023, M2 was declining, which can be viewed as a positive for inflation as money was being taken out of the system. Since then, M2 has returned to positive growth. If money had continued to be removed from the economy, where might inflation be today? We also take a closer look at what is driving the current inflation cycle, and how government revenues, spending, and fiscal policy might affect inflation. What options does the government have to increase revenues, and how could those changes affec

This week on Inside the Economy, we examine the latest trends shaping consumer spending, debt, inflation, corporate profits, and the utility sector. On the consumer front, retail sales have maintained a steady upward trajectory throughout this year, with a narrow gap between total retail sales and total retail sales ex gasoline. Could this mean gasoline’s impact on the overall direction of consumer spending is minimal? At the same time, revolving consumer credit has crossed the $1 trillion threshold, fueled by years of post-pandemic borrowing. Meanwhile, as sticky inflation persists, the Federal Reserve is slated to announce its interest rate decision this week, with bond markets reflecting expectations for a potential rate move. What could this mean for consumers and the stock market? On the corporate side, U.S. profit upgrades have now extended for a 21st consecutive week. This momentum may reflect improving expectations for corporate earnings as upward earnings revisions outpace downgrades. Finally, Calif

This week on Inside the Economy, we address the real estate market, banks, markets, and money in the global system. The estimated number of U.S. home sellers exceeds the number of buyers in the market by a ratio of 3 to 2. With home prices still relatively high, how could changes in interest rates affect consumers and the housing market? On the banking side, delinquencies have remained low over the past several years. Where do bank reserves and income stand when it comes to overall bank strength? Manufacturing activity in the U.S. was slow in the post-covid environment. Have we started to see a pickup in activity, and what could that mean for the stock market? From a fixed income perspective, corporate bond spreads continue to tighten. Are new issues coming to the marketplace? 30-year yields have touched a multiyear high, driven by inflation and borrowing costs, raising concerns. How do today’s yields compare with levels seen before the Great Recession? Finally, U.S. public debt has reached $40 trillion, whil

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the housing market, consumer debt, and the current job market. Consumer spending is up right alongside total household debt, which has hit record highs for both housing and other loans. With mortgage late payments ticking up just a bit and foreclosures staying well below levels seen during the 2008 financial crisis, what does this higher level of borrowing mean for the economy? On the housing front, while long term indexes show a post pandemic leap, recent data reveals that median asking rents have cooled to sit about 4% below their 2022 peak. Could this be temporary breathing room for tenants, or perhaps a sign of a broader shift in the rental market? Meanwhile, in the workforce, prime age (24-54 years old) labor force participation has held strong while the overall participation rate has dipped recently, and the labor share of income has trended downward to historic lows. What are these shifting workforce dynamics possibly signaling about our economy? Shifting to

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore consumer spending, interest rates, world markets, and where oil stands today. Recent data shows consumer spending continues to be elevated while wage increases are slowing, with wage earners feeling the pressure. Households earning $125,000 or less are beginning to experience greater financial strain, but is this a temporary squeeze or could it be the start of a broader shift in consumer behavior? Homes currently on the market are taking longer to sell, and prices have come down somewhat. Would another increase in interest rates push prices down even further, and would that be a good thing for the overall health of the real estate market? Foreign holdings of U.S. financial assets have changed over time. In 2010, foreign investors held 33 percent of U.S. equities. What is that share in 2026? U.S. imports from Asia have risen significantly, but that growth is increasingly coming from countries other than China, while imports from China have declined to their lowest le

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the overall consumer resilience, the S&P 500, and potential implications for investors. New home inventory has climbed steadily back up to nearly 500,000 units, marking a significant recovery from the historic lows seen a decade ago. Are we finally seeing enough increase in supply to help ease buyer competition, or is inventory still missing the mark? U.S. spending on data center construction has skyrocketed, officially outpacing traditional office and healthcare building markets. Where does this measure alongside educational, and transportation buildings? Meanwhile, PCE inflation measures have cooled dramatically from their historic peaks, settling into a much steadier range heading into mid-2026. Just how long can we expect this balanced inflation environment to last? Federal spending continues to outpace government receipts, maintaining a wide deficit gap even as revenues steadily climb. What could it take to close the distance between incoming tax dollars and na

This week on Inside the Economy, we address what the future may hold for the economy following a period of strong market performance. Strong corporate earnings have helped drive the markets, but new money entering the markets has also played an important role. Where is some of that money being invested? Real disposable income has recently turned negative following a surge in inflation. What short term event caused that increase in inflation? Meanwhile, the personal savings rate has leveled off at 2 percent, which is more consistent with historical norms. What do consumer debt levels look like, including credit card balances and mortgage delinquencies? The mortgage backed securities (MBS) market is currently showing a current coupon MBS yield of 5.3 percent. Since the start of the Iran conflict, yields have moved higher, reflecting reduced market expectations for near-term rate cuts. Is the spread between mortgage backed securities and Treasuries tightening or widening? Finally, at the beginning of the Iran co

This week on Inside the Economy, we dive into the shifting dynamics of consumer spending, housing, capital markets, and global trade. Data shows that retail and gasoline spending have surged to become major drivers of year-over-year spending growth, pushing total monthly growth toward the 6% mark in early 2026 alongside steady services spending. Where would our economic growth stand without these two volatile categories? Meanwhile, this broader economic resilience is spilling into the housing market, where falling mortgage rates and moderating prices have propelled existing home sales to their fastest pace of the year. This raises a critical question for hopeful buyers and investors alike: is this renewed demand about to send median home prices soaring out of reach once again, or can the market maintain its delicate balance? On the capital markets front, net U.S. equity issuance is projected to experience a notable surge throughout the remainder of the year, rising at its fastest pace since at least 1999. Whi

This week on Inside the Economy, we examine jobs and spending, inflation, and economies outside the United States. Since 2020, hiring demand has increased across the South and in parts of the country such as Idaho, while many Western states have experienced a decline. At the same time, new job creation remains strong. Are there any potential warning signs or anomalies behind the recent uptick in new jobs, or does the data point to continued strength? Inflation has also ticked higher in recent months, driven in part by conflict in the Middle East. Additional pressure has come from rising U.S. beef prices, as drought conditions and shrinking cattle herds continue to constrain supply. What other areas of inflation are being affected by drought conditions? Finally, the world’s three largest LNG exporters, the United States, Australia, and Qatar, account for a combined 252 million tons of exports. How could the global LNG landscape change as a result of the conflict in the Middle East, and which countries may emer

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore inflation, interest rates, Venezuela and other trading partners. U.S. inflation accelerated in April, likely driven by continued increases in gasoline prices, groceries, rent, airfare, and other everyday expenses. As inflation pressures persist, small businesses may feel a greater financial strain than larger corporations. New data highlights which states have the highest proportion of employees working for small businesses — where does Colorado rank on the list? Moving onto bond yields, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have fluctuated over the years alongside changing Federal Reserve leadership and evolving economic conditions. New data shows that AI hyperscalers have been rapidly increasing debt issuance to finance the accelerating expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure, with 2026 bond sales already exceeding total issuance for all of 2025. Riskier areas of the bond market have recently outperformed, with CCC-rated junk bonds leading year-to-date gains. C

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore personal income, S&P 500 profit and earnings growth, and world oil inventories. New data for disposable personal income shows a jump in income, most likely due to government employees returning to work. Personal outlays also increased in February and March, but what might be driving the rise in spending? On the employment front, the market continues to grow with hires increasing month to month while layoffs remain unchanged. At the same time, job openings are declining. What is causing the decline? S&P 500 earnings growth has been trending in a positive direction, with first quarter estimates reaching 27 percent. Interestingly, companies have also increased stock buybacks this year. Which company has announced $100 billion in share repurchases? Lastly, world oil inventories are falling at a record pace amid the Iran war. While the United States is less dependent on Iranian oil, which countries are most affected? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: • U.S. GDP grow

This week on Inside the Economy, we assess the cost of living, impact from the Iran conflict, and global markets including global trade. Consumer spending remains positive, yet the pace is beginning to slow alongside a pullback in credit card usage, what could be causing this shift, and could we expect this trend to continue? Historically, wage growth has often differed between high-skilled and low-skilled occupations, with only a few key periods where both moved in tandem. Where are we seeing wage growth trending today, and what does that tell us about the current labor market? As we continue to monitor developments in the Iran conflict, one message has come through clearly—capital markets have appeared resilient. While U.S. stocks have rebounded strongly, how have international equities performed and have they participated in the recovery? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: • Crude oil is $95.04 per barrel • Colorado ranked 103 in Cost-of-Living Index 2025 Average • 30-year mortgage at 6.23%

This week on Inside the Economy, we assess consumer spending, home pricing, and the outlook for the S&P 500. Amid the Iranian conflict, oil prices have increased, but has this impacted consumer spending? Higher-income households have seen after-tax wage growth rise to 5.6% year-over-year; how does that compare to lower-income households? Additionally, according to the Affordability Price Index, consumer affordability appears to have been minimally affected. How could interest rate changes affect affordability going forward? Turning to home prices, they seem reluctant to adjust, which may be attributed to labor and material costs remaining around $200 per square foot. Geographically, where are home prices seeing the largest increases? Finally, the S&P 500 price-to-earnings ratio is near its lowest level in a year and appears healthier relative to earnings, but how many companies have issued positive EPS guidance? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: • Core CPI at 2.5% (YoY) • Nondefense Capital Goods Shipme

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the economic impact from the current world events, safe haven status, and cost of energy. Inflation has cooled and is now stabilizing around 3%, but that remains above the Federal Reserve’s usual 2% target. This raises the question of whether consumers will begin to see meaningful relief in prices ahead. Over the past 80 years, gasoline and other energy goods have become a smaller share of U.S. consumer spending, yet they remain highly volatile. If the volatility persists, could the impact stay contained or could it begin to pressure broader household budgets? Global primary energy consumption is broadly diversified across sources, yet one category continues to gain share and stand out from the rest - so what is driving this shift, and what may it indicate for markets and the economy ahead? The S&P 500 has recently fallen below its 200-day moving average, a key technical support level, raising an important question: is this simply a short-term, headline-driven pullb

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the inflation outlook, affordability, and hydrocarbons alongside urea prices. Spending in February grew about 3 percent year over year, which may indicate a relatively strong consumer. What can the uptick in consumer spending be attributed to? Inflation has remained elevated in recent data. What are the projections for a future rate cut or hike? Housing affordability remains strained, especially as the cost of building new homes stays elevated. In addition, with interest rates and other costs rising post-COVID, the annual mortgage payment as a share of income remains high. What are the current levels of monthly property insurance premiums, and what factors are built into them? Regarding energy, the United States is now a net exporter. Are regions such as the European union and China primarily net importers or next exporters of energy? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: • PCE Core CPI at 3.1% (YoY) • National home price to income ratio was 4.93 in the fourth quar

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore the evolving job market and affordability, financial markets and inflation, and break down the latest trends in imports and exports. Job availability has been trending lower since 2022. What factors could influence whether this trend continues, stabilizes, or reverses in the near term? Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) delinquencies have risen sharply in recent years. Where might this trend lead next, and what could the downstream implications be? The Congressional Budget Office projects that federal deficits will rise from 2026 through 2035 due to policy changes. What specific spending and revenue adjustments are driving those increases? As for the biggest source of U.S. imports, European Union took the lead, which country or region is close behind? Foreign investors have steadily increased their holdings of U.S. government debt. Will this demand remain strong in the years ahead? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: • Real GDP increased 1.4% in Q4 2025

This week on Inside the Economy, we address consumer debt, inflation and deflation across the U.S., and S&P earnings growth. The total consumer debt balance and its composition have not changed much for consumers aside from slight increases in mortgages since the post Covid period. On the other hand, balances by delinquency status have seen larger adjustments. Which source of debt has changed the most and why? Is the new data more of a normalization within the debt landscape? Inflation readings across the country show some disparity, largely driven by gasoline prices. Which areas are experiencing deflation? Technically, some metrics suggest markets may be overvalued based on earnings as measured by the price to earnings ratio. What was earnings growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, and how does that compare historically? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: • ISM Service at 53.8 • Head CPI Inflation at 2.4% (YOY) • S&P 500 Earnings Growth at 11.9% (Q4 2025)

This week on Inside the Economy, we discuss the housing market, population trends, financial markets, and global freshwater withdrawal rates. Housing prices have declined year over year, while demand continues to vary by region. We explore whether prices might be showing signs of stabilizing, or if further declines may be possible. U.S. natural population growth has slowed in recent years, and tighter immigration policies have further weighed on overall population growth. Could the U.S. face negative population growth in the years ahead and could that dynamic influence housing prices? In the financial markets, U.S. IT investment has returned to all-time highs, matching levels last seen during the 2001 dot-com boom. The focus now shifts to whether earnings growth appears sufficient to support this investment surge, and what evidence could confirm its durability. European investors have played a meaningful role in supporting U.S. equity markets. How substantial is their exposure today, and what does the outlook

This week on Inside the Economy, we explore U.S. inflation compared to disposable income, stock market earnings, and housing. U.S. inflation closed out 2025 lighter than expected, hovering around 2 to 3 percent. Where is the biggest CPI impact with regard to tariffs? Disposable income in the U.S. has seen a 6.2 percent acceleration in the post pandemic period. We examine what this could imply for recession risk and GDP. What effect could the implementation of tax cuts in 2026 have following the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill? S&P 500 earnings in recent years have been dominated by the likes of the Magnificent Seven stocks. We discuss current projections and market expectations for 2026 and whether there may be potential for broader participation across the stock index. Lastly, U.S. mortgage rates have dropped to one of the lowest levels in years, with refinancing applications increasing as a result. Has this had a positive effect on new home sales? Tune in to learn more. Key Takeaways: • Unemployment