Skift Airline Weekly Lounge

Things haven’t gotten better in Mexico. Although Aeroméxico is at least coping better than its domestic competitors, all of which posted negative first-quarter margins in the double-digits. To make matters worse, construction of Mexico City’s much-needed new airport might be suspended as soon as July. North of the border, Delta and Southwest are seeing more cost pressures in the second quarter. Lastly, America is getting a new airline called Moxy. Adding to the excitement is that the man behind the project, David Neeleman, is known for inventive business models such as JetBlue and Brazil’s Azul. Sure enough, from what we know, Moxy appears to have some unique qualities.

Despite a 29% year-over-year increase to its labor costs, Ryanair still posted a positive profit margin in the first quarter. Ryan’s eastern European counterpart, Wizz Air, meanwhile faced an even more daunting 43% rise in labor costs and handled it with equal aplomb. Scandinavian Airlines is plodding along, but so are a lot of other legacy carriers in Europe. For the moment, that’s okay. Doing much less than okay is El Al, an airline suffering a big loss in its first quarter despite Tel Aviv enjoying terrific growth in tourism. In the U.S., Delta and United say they don’t fear high oil prices or low-cost longhaul carriers. Should they? Lastly, airBaltic looks for a suitor, and Aeroflot takes a step backward.

For the moment, WestJet is the more profitable carrier. But in recent years, Air Canada has closed the gap and, in the first quarter of 2018, we see signs that Air Canada—after years of giving chase—might overtake its long-dominant rival. Emirates appears to be emerging from its malaise, but can it return to its former glory? AirFrance/KLM continues to struggle with its unions. Lufthansa had its best first quarter in a decade. And IAG, the airline group that includes British Airways, Iberia, Vueling, Aer Lingus and Level, continues to dazzle. However, IAG’s brilliance hasn’t proven alluring enough to capture more than 5% of Norwegian.

Revenues for U.S. carriers remained terrifically healthy in the first quarter, and everybody made money. But rising labor and fuel costs generally shrunk year-over-year profit margins. United, which continues to trail Delta and American in profitability, did a pretty good job of preserving its margin. Profits slid a bit more at American, but it was especially buoyant in Latin America, where AA is the leading U.S. carrier. One airline that saw rather grisly margin deterioration was Alaska as fuel, labor and maintenance cost increases severely outpaced revenues. JetBlue and Spirit both did okay, but one was happier than the other. Southwest and Hawaiian posted handsome 12% margins in the off-peak quarter. Meanwhile, Allegiant was in a class by itself, posting a 19% first-quarter profit margin.

For a second straight year, Delta’s operating profit margin has fallen year-over-year in the first quarter. The reason for the decline, once again, is rising costs. The good news: Rising revenues—from nearly every corner of Delta’s network—propelled the airline to a solid 8% operating profit margin. One of the rising costs is, of course, fuel. Are fuel prices putting a damper on earnings overall? IAG seems interested in expanding its empire, having purchased a small stake in Norwegian and considering a full takeover. Lion Air, meanwhile, is purchasing planes… lots and lots of planes. In the U.S., Allegiant came under fire over safety concerns. Lastly, Frontier is adding 69 routes this month alone.

Numbers were put to the misery South African Airways has been experiencing when, last month, the airline finally reported earnings for its fiscal year ending in March 2017. Those numbers included a gut-wrenching negative 9% operating profit margin on the year. “Crisis” isn’t too strong of a word. What is SAA doing to turn things around? Elsewhere, it’s steady-as-she-goes for Cebu Pacific, which again is sitting among the world’s profit leaders. The Indian government has solicited bids for a 76% stake in Air India. Any taker would get the surprisingly-profitable Air India Express but would also have to assume a considerable amount of debt. Plus, the comeback continues at Kenya Airways. And lastly, will Berlin’s new airport ever open?

Air France/KLM and Lufthansa have a lot in common, including the fact that both distantly trail IAG (the parent company of British Airways, Aer Lingus, Iberia and Vueling) in terms of profitability among Europe’s Big Three airline groups. What does IAG have that the others don’t? Meanwhile, Virgin Atlantic turned in a profitless 2017 partly because of hurricanes. The fiesta has fizzled in Mexico right now as overcapacity, a weak peso and political concerns made it a miserable 2017 for the airlines there. Aeromexico can at least chase money overseas. Volaris has not been so fortunate. Hopefully, Volaris can make a comeback like Copa and Turkish Airlines. Both carriers have gone from tears to cheers in recent years.

Life is good in Australasia—especially if you’re Qantas or Air New Zealand. Both carriers are enjoying a bit of a golden age that stems from good management and some macro tailwinds. Meanwhile, Virgin Australia, seemingly unable to catch those tailwinds, drifted toward a disheartening 2% operating profit margin in 2017. Scandinavia’s SAS, meanwhile, had a negative margin that really wasn’t disheartening, because it was a small loss (-3%) and came during the airline’s always-difficult fourth quarter. Avianca managed to profit despite a painful pilot strike. And finally, Seth Kaplan caught up with Qatar Airways Vice President of the Americas Günter Saurwein to chat about the new airline's business-class product and much more.

Not only does Ryanair keep on rolling, it seems to be gaining speed. Its full-year 2017 operating profit margin will almost certainly be the world’s best after every airline has reported. Ryan-like Wizz Air is also among the world’s profit leaders despite paying a lot more for fuel than last year. Korean Air and Asiana saw their China problem solved in Q4, and both received a lift from cargo and won appreciation. Air Canada and WestJet are trying just about everything to compete against each other, and it’s working—for the moment. Spirit is delivering solid profits, although they aren’t Spirit-like. Meanwhile, fellow Scandinavian carriers Norwegian and Finnair likely have divergent views on 2017—one was glad to see it go, while the other likely wished it would never end.

With the bulk of U.S. airlines having now reported fourth quarter earnings, what has unfolded is largely a success story. 2017 wasn’t as good as 2015 or 2016, but it was generally good. Gone are the exhilarating margins of 25% and 27%. Instead we’re seeing healthy margins of 17% and 19%. Delta continues to set the pace for the Big Three. United continues to trail its peers, and that has led to some head-turning growth plans. American saw revenues surge in Dallas, Phoenix and its transatlantic market. Southwest overcame a fuel hedge reckoning to deliver strong results. Alaska appears to be coming down to Earth. JetBlue, which saw some of its Caribbean markets decimated by hurricanes, nonetheless, had a good quarter. Allegiant delivered disappointing results by its standards, but the airline still bested all U.S. carriers that have reported in Q4. And while it continues to enjoy sunny results, Hawaiian may be facing more competition in 2018.

Delta’s 2017 profits were down slightly from the glory days of 2015 and 2016. But make no mistake: This airline is performing very well. Consider that fuel prices increased 23% in the fourth quarter, and the airline was still slightly more profitable in the quarter year over year. The transatlantic market is performing well. The Asian market is performing well. The South American market is performing better. And that’s all before you get to Atlanta, which is one of the most valuable pieces on the worldwide airline chessboard. For a little more color on Delta’s positioning around the globe, this episode includes an interview with Steve Sear, Delta’s President of International and Executive Vice President of Global Sales. Click here to subscribe to podcast. –Jason Cottrell Subscribe to Podcast | Listen Whenever: iTunes | Stitcher

Just a few years ago, the often-troubled SAS was merely inches away from seeing its light burn out permanently. Since then the airline has rallied. This past October the airline completed its best fiscal year in two decades. Is the airline merely surfing the buoyant European economy? Or is it building long-term success? Finnair is also enjoying a brilliant year. Icelandair is coping with growing competition. And the Air Berlin parts sale is largely settled. In the U.S., Spirit announced that in 2019 it will again part ways with its CEO, which happened just a couple years ago. Frontier had a pretty solid 2017, but it didn’t launch an IPO. Lastly, Delta kicks off earnings season this week.

Jet Airways had a pretty mediocre third quarter. Still, there are plenty of signs of hope for the often troubled airline. In fact, Jet has posted 10 consecutive profitable quarters. India’s low-cost carrier IndiGo, meanwhile, is raking in double digit profit margins. And SpiceJet—an airline that fairly recently had buzzards circling above it—had its best third quarter ever. Both major airlines in South Korea have seen their profits tamped down by a diplomatic spat between their country and China. Fortunately both Asiana and Korean Air enjoyed robust growth in cargo revenue, which kept things from getting too ugly. Meanwhile, Kenya Airways is quietly regaining its footing. And lastly, we take a quick look ahead to 2018.

European low-cost carrier easyJet isn’t doing as well as competing LCCs Ryanair and Wizz Air. But make no mistake: easyJet is doing well. The airline’s 20% operating profit margin for the April-through-September period puts it among the most profitable carriers in the world at the moment. In the U.S., Delta and Alaska Airlines have been waging a battle for Seattle for years. And more recently, Delta and JetBlue are brawling in Boston. Is it possible all three airlines are making money at these highly contested airports? LATAM continues to rebound from the Brazilian recession. Avianca had a good summer despite labor strife and ending service to Venezuela. Finally, we close this episode looking at some growing and slowing airports.

The third quarter is usually a splendid time for airline profits in Europe, and this year has been no exception. Ryanair is more than surviving its recent bout of operational difficulties, having turned in a stellar earnings report. Europe’s Big Three all improved year-over-year with IAG posting its biggest quarterly profit margin to date. Air France/KLM and Lufthansa are enjoying a slowdown in encroachment by the Gulf carriers. Icelandair and Finnair are making the most of their warm months. And Norwegian at least made money—just not enough. Air Canada continues to edge out its rival WestJet, but both were highly profitable. The same could be said for rivals Japan Airlines and All Nippon, with JAL winning that competitive and profitable race. Click here to subscribe to podcast. –Jason Cottrell Subscribe to Podcast | Listen Whenever: iTunes | Stitcher

With most of the U.S. airlines having reported third-quarter earnings, it’s now clear that rising revenues aren’t keeping up with rising costs. While every U.S. airline fell victim to this condition, some are weathering it better than others. United and American Airlines were a couple of the “others” stumbling in Q3—at least compared to Delta. Neither hurricanes in Florida nor the horror in Las Vegas helped Allegiant, but it was a 19% increase in operating costs that really hurt profits. Spirit saw $40m wiped out by hurricanes. Southwest and JetBlue both maintained margins near last year’s level, but JetBlue’s hurricane problem could be a fourth quarter story with Puerto Rico’s slow recovery. Things are good at Alaska Airlines, despite some transcontinental trouble. Lastly, Hawaiian saw year-over-year profits dip so mildly and starting from such great heights that one might think there’s no trouble in paradise. Then why did Hawaiian’s stock plummet last week?

Despite being dinged by rising costs, Delta opened the third-quarter earnings season with its customary show of strength. Revenues rose 6% on just 2% growth, and it posted a 16% operating profit margin. While things aren’t quite as good in Europe, airlines there have much to look forward to, namely the elimination—one way or another—of Monarch, Air Berlin, Czech Airlines and possibly Alitalia. Is that enough to lift other European carriers? Lufthansa seems especially confident. It’s looking to not only lose a competitor in Air Berlin but also gain planes for its Eurowings unit—and it’s placed a bid for parts of Alitalia. Meanwhile, Bombardier might have found a solution to its Boeing problem by—wait for it—partnering with Airbus. Lastly, Southwest appears to be at last headed for Hawaii. No doubt the mai tais will be nice, but can the LCC compete there?

The food scene and the tequila are great in Mexico. The airline industry? Not so much—at least at the moment. Everybody lost money in the first quarter of 2017. In the second quarter, only one airline—VivaAerobus—did merely okay. What has happened to the usually high-flying Volaris? Even Interjet has outperformed Volaris in the first half. And despite lackluster success, these airlines are growing like gangbusters. Meanwhile, American Airlines goes to great lengths to demonstrate that less seat pitch doesn’t necessarily mean less legroom. Frontier, despite outward appearances, is enjoying perhaps its best results ever. Some of the smaller Gulf carriers are surging. And, lastly, there’s trouble in Thailand.

Jet Airways didn’t give up the ghost. Instead, it rose from the hospital bed and plodded toward recovery, and today the Indian airline is the proud owner of a profit streak of nine consecutive quarters. How did Jet avoid its near-death experience? Speaking of near death, Air Berlin is watching its planes get repossessed, its pilots strike and its time run short. Meanwhile, easyJet is interlining with Norwegian, WestJet and surely others to be named later. Why is this a particularly good move? Also, why are some U.S. airlines retreating from Cuba, while others are running toward it? Lastly, United is now forecasting a severely diminished third quarter, and the reasons are many—and most are solvable.

Cathay Pacific has seen all its oxygen sucked out of the room by the hyper growth of the Chinese carriers. Is there anything to be done? Sometimes waiting is the best option. Australia has two major airlines with two very different stories to tell. While Qantas is enjoying a golden age, Virgin Australia is a tragic tale in the making. Meanwhile, Air New Zealand, taking advantage of some of the same forces lifting Qantas, had a second quarter it could be proud of despite a 21% increase in fuel costs. Air Canada and WestJet are benefiting from a strong home economy, but the aggressive growth of both airlines might be stunting profits a bit. Lastly, Allegiant is looking for profits not just in the sky, but in real estate.