Politics With Michelle Grattan

Jane Halton, a former finance department secretary and an adjunct professor, appeared at cabinet’s expenditure review committee over nearly 30 years. Halton describes the inner workings of the federal budget in what’s known as “the razor gang”. The razor gang, comprised of the treasurer, the finance minister and then a couple of senior ministers, scrutinises the government’s spending and savings in the budget process, Halton says. “They would scrutinise – and sometimes it’s seen as interrogate – the ministers who bring forward proposals, things that they would like to do. And they will either agree with them or ask for more information or say ‘no, we’re not doing that’. And they do exactly the same with savings proposals as well.” In the process, if a minister wants to bring a spending measure forward, they also have to propose a savings measure. Whether or not it gets through depends a little bit on personality and a bit on the circumstances, Halton says. As to the upcoming federal budget, Halton says things

As North Korea continues to antagonise the US and its allies, the prospect of war hangs in the air. But Peter Jennings, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, says he doesn’t think we’ll see armed conflict with North Korea any time this year. “I think the US has now resolved that it’s going to exhaust all diplomatic options first before it thinks about pre-emptively striking at the North’s missiles and nuclear facilities. "And really what that means is – one more try to see if the Chinese are prepared to apply the type of sanctions that would hurt North Korea sufficiently,” Jennings says. Weighing up North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, Jennings says that up until about 18 months ago, their nuclear program was “going nowhere fast”. “But in the last 18 months, what we’ve seen is a significant acceleration of the North’s nuclear testing.” “The different calculation the Americans have to factor in is that the North is getting close, and it now sees itself within a decent sprint of being

This week, the government announced it would abolish the 457 visa and replace it with a new temporary skill shortage visa program. The change has met a mixed response from businesses. Jenny Lambert, director of employment, education and training at the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, says the key issue for the business community is to “try and reset the button on confidence in the temporary skilled migration system”. “We really have accepted that we have to get rid of the 457 visa and put in place arrangements that the community can be more confident in. That said, we’ve got some issues about the detail and we’re willing and wanting to work with the government on that,” Lambert says. Lambert maintains that rorting was never a big part of the 457 visa program. “When you look at the bigger picture of use of the 457 over the last few years, the predominant users are state governments in their health portfolios, universities and academia bringing in specialist researchers and scientists … and also hi

A cloud continues to hover over Russian interference in the US presidential election. Associate professor Matthew Sussex, academic director at the Australian National University’s National Security College and a specialist in Russian foreign and strategic policy, says Russia’s meddling has been “exceptionally damaging”. “I think that the Kremlin was really dreading having a Hillary Clinton White House because she would have put up the pressure quite significantly on Ukraine, on Crimea, and on Russia’s behaviour more generally,” Sussex says. “The Krelim side of it was, ‘well Trump will deliver absolutely everything we want’, and that was number one: loosen NATO, which would give it a freer hand in Ukraine and not have to worry about its western flank so much. "Second, to make America’s allies pay more and make them more uncomfortable for the sense that they might be protected by the United States. And finally – and this is the big one – Trump has promised to wind back the liberal trading order, and it’s widely

In his latest Quarterly Essay, journalist David Marr delves into why Pauline Hanson attracts so much attention. Looking at figures from the last election, Marr also paints a portrait of those voting for One Nation. “The principal characteristics of her followers are this: they’re white, they’re at least third-generation Australians, they are – unlike most Australians – pessimistic about their own prospects and about the economic prospects of the country. This is a very optimistic country. "They’re not all old. About one-third of the people who voted for her in the last election were under 45. They mostly didn’t finish school. That didn’t mean their lives were wrecked; they went on to get other qualifications. "They are, above all, hostile to immigration. That is the most dramatic thing about them.” Marr says the fear of Islam is at the centre of Hanson’s appeal. “If people are not recognising this, they’re just not facing facts,” he says. As to Hanson’s “star” political status: “Whether she can survive a six-

The government this week introduced a bill that aims to put a stop to secret agreements between employers and unions without the knowledge of union members. The next hurdle will be the Senate, although it’s possible Labor may support the legislation. Employment Minister Michaelia Cash says she is always in discussion with the Senate crossbenchers about the implementation of the recommendations from the Heydon royal commission. “And certainly, I’m always willing to sit down with [Shadow Employment Minister] Brendan O'Connor or Richard Di Natale to discuss the legislation.” Beyond these new measures, Cash suggests the government wants to legislate more recommendations from the royal commission into trade unions. “There are about 50 to 55 left and we are finalising that package as we speak. We are absolutely committed to adopting the Heydon recommendations. "There are further recommendations in relation to what employers and unions should be disclosing in the course of enterprise agreements. There are some recom

Greens leader Richard Di Natale is calling for a re-imagining of the way Australians approach work. “What we’re saying is: let’s have a look at some of the models around the world,” he says. “It’s absolutely possible, as we’ve seen in places like Sweden, where in the aged care sector people are working a six-hour day rather than an eight-hour day, but they’re actually delivering a productivity dividend. They’re happier. They’re healthier at work. They’re actually producing just as much as they would be doing in an eight-hour day.” With the future likely to see many jobs lost to automation, The Greens are keeping an open mind to the notion of “guaranteed adequate incomes”. “It’s a system that gives people a wage, irrespective of income. It’s not actually means tested. "It makes sure that everybody’s got enough to live on. There are a whole range of benefits to the economy. There are few overheads in administering it. So we’re looking … at the trials. We’re watching them very closely in Canada, in Scotland, in

The end of the mining boom has hit many people in Western Australia hard, and this has flowed strongly into the election. Debt and deficit are besetting the state budget. In this final podcast from Perth, we talk to economist Alan Duncan about the challenges for the state’s economy and for whoever forms government after Saturday, as WA undertakes a vast transition. We also interview Opposition Leader Mark McGowan, who goes into the election as favourite. McGowan had much-revered Labor figure Bob Hawke over to help last week. Hawke talked to him about his summit approach to economic policy-making after he was elected prime minister in 1983. McGowan tells us he wants to be a consensus premier locally, but when he ventured out of his state he would be fighting hard for the interests of WA. “As a West Australian you put forward a robust case on behalf of your state. We never seem to get any favours out of the Commonwealth. And what we have to do is be absolutely forceful and never, ever give in. And I think that’

In our second podcast from the Western Australian election, we talk to Kim Beazley, especially about One Nation. Beazley was federal Labor leader during Pauline Hanson’s first political phase. He sees her as a national security threat and believes she should be opposed in the strongest terms. “We [in WA] are probably more conscious of South-East Asia. We do more trade with South-East Asia … with Indonesia for example. There’s a strong propensity here to look very seriously at Indonesia. Lots of West Australians holiday in Indonesia. … The positions she is adopting pose to seriously damage a critical security and economic relationship. I think quite a lot of West Australians understand that,” he said. “The rise of One Nation, to my mind, ought to be greeted in much the same way as we greeted [Hanson] back then - to see it disappear as quickly as possible.” In this podcast, we also visited Rockingham, south of Perth, where we found mixed views about One Nation and more than a little general disillusionment. Pol

In the first of three Conversation podcasts on the Western Australian election, we talk to Natalie Mast at the University of Western Australia, Premier Colin Barnett and ABC election analyst Antony Green. Saturday’s election potentially carries a hefty national punch. The polls are running strongly against the Liberal government. If Colin Barnett loses, the federal Liberals will become even more jittery, although the defeat would be due primarily to state factors. The election will also test the power of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation as a disruptor, with the party set to win state upper house seats. Hanson is on the campaign trail all this week. Her latest provocative comments on immunisation, Vladimir Putin and Muslims - she said on Monday Muslims had changed Australian suburbs - continue to highlight the dubious deal the WA Liberals have done with One Nation on preferences. The deal has alienated some among both Liberal and One Nation supporters. Barnett is anxious to keep maximum distance from Hanson, insist

Australia got a taste of US President Donald Trump’s approach to diplomacy in a sensational phone call with Malcolm Turnbull, details of which were leaked to the Washington Post. But former US ambassador to Australia during the Obama years, Jeff Bleich, says the reaction in the US was “very helpful” to Australia. “Because one person after another, myself included, was called on to TV to talk about it,” Bleich says. “We all said the same thing - which is that Australia is one of our best friends in the world. It’s a critical country. Look at all the things we do together and that Australia has done over the years. And it was actually an opportunity to reinforce the importance of this alliance and the importance of Australia.” In the wake of Trump’s controversial immigration order, Bleich was one of many who denounced it. But he has no criticism of Turnbull for not joining in on the international condemnation. “My statement was really about Americans. Americans have a responsibility to stand up for American val

With university graduates finding it harder to find jobs, questions have been raised about the merits of a typical tertiary qualification. Dr Ken Coates, Canada research chair in regional innovation at University Saskatchewan Campus, says by 2050 we’re going to have hundreds of more specialised, boutique institutions. “We’ll have a smaller number of what we call these ‘multiversities’ - the large scale enterprises that have the 30, 40, 50,000 students offering everything to everybody. I think we’re going to see a much larger shift towards private education,” Coates says. As it stands, graduates are left with what Coates calls “a huge dose of career paranoia”. “We have significant challenges in different countries with the unemployment of university graduates. It’s very high in places like Spain and Greece and other countries. We have a larger problem with graduate underemployment. … They get a job, but the job doesn’t require a university degree. "I think one of the issues is that we have too few good jobs. S

As politicians debate the causes of South Australia’s power failures, separating fact from rhetoric has become difficult. In this episode of The Conversation’s politics podcast, Michelle Grattan interviews energy expert Hugh Saddler. Dr Saddler explains the complex mix of factors behind the power failures in South Australia and the stresses on the electricity systems elsewhere, and canvases what can be done to fix the problems. With the government attempting to reinvigorate enthusiasm for coal, Saddler doesn’t believe the idea of subsidising the development of “clean coal” power stations will fly. “There’s so many parties who would be involved in that sort of investment saying there’s no way they would invest in such a type of power station. "One factor is that they have a long life. … That type of power station would take a very long time to build. Then it will have a long life and under that sort of life they would still be operating in 2050 when many countries have said we’ve got to be [at] zero emissions.

Labor’s edge over the government in the polls has seen the party stay united. But it has not stopped speculation about whether frontbencher Anthony Albanese would be a better fit as leader of the party. Albanese dismisses Coalition jibes about him being the alternative leader. He tells Michelle Grattan it’s the government who has internal issues. “The government are I think more divided than I’ve seen a political party for a very long time – and I’ve seen a bit of division,” says the deputy prime minister in the second Rudd government. As shadow minister for infrastructure and transport, Albanese says there are significant differences between Labor and the government in this portfolio. “We established Infrastructure Australia to recommend the right projects to the government that would provide the biggest economic boost. We’ve seen the government effectively walk away from that strategy and remove funding from projects that had been approved by Infrastructure Australia, particularly public transport projects.

Approaching the one-year anniversary of becoming National Party leader, Barnaby Joyce is well aware of the challenge posed by One Nation. Joyce tells Michelle Grattan he knows “there’s a battle on”, as the Queensland election looms. He agrees regional seats in that state are particularly vulnerable to falling to Pauline Hanson’s party. “I take every political vote seriously because every person has a right to reflect their wishes in their vote and therefore I’ll be in Queensland this weekend. I was there last week or the week before last - but Australia is a big place. I try to get around as much of it as I possibly can.” In his first year as leader, Joyce has had to manage his volatile backbencher - and party whip - George Christensen, a delicate task when the Coalition has a majority of just one seat. He remains confident Christensen will remain in the tent. “"I talk to George all the time,” he says. He holds back from criticising Christensen for attending a fundraiser of the far-right “Q Society” in Melbou

A day after moving to the crossbench, senator Cory Bernardi is feeling the heat. The media, former Liberal colleagues and South Australian voters all have a view on what he's done. "People will say what they're going to say. And I've tried to be consistent. I've been accused of many things in my time in politics but I've looked to be consistent and principled in my approach to policy areas. "Strangely, many of the people calling me an opportunist are the ones that exploit, you know, a momentary weakness to grasp power or influence, or promotion for themselves," Bernardi says. A lot of the people who look favourably on his decision: "are disillusioned Liberal Party sympathisers that said 'I couldn't bring myself to vote for the Liberal Party at the last election' or 'I wasn't intending to vote for them but at least now I can give you my vote knowing that our values will be upheld.'" As interest focuses on whether billionaire businesswoman Gina Rinehart will donate to the Australian Conservatives, Bernardi leav

At the beginning of the parliamentary year, the government is beleaguered on several fronts. But Arthur Sinodinos, one of the Coalition’s most experienced operators and the newly appointed minister for industry, innovation and science, is determined to be optimistic. “You can’t rule any possibilities out, including the possibility that the government actually goes from strength to strength as we go forward,” Sinodinos says. “Yes, there are testing headwinds, including the international environment, but we’re going to be very keen to prosecute the case for economic growth, for jobs, for why international trade is a good thing for everybody, not just one country.” Speaking with Michelle Grattan on the day of senator Cory Bernardi’s exit from the Liberal Party, Sinodinos has a sharp observation for his former colleague. “What I’d say to senator Bernardi is that if you want to influence the party, you’ve got to be inside the party. You can’t do it from outside.” Assessing Bernardi’s prospects as a force outside t

Ahead of next week’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook, the government has been hit with the sobering news that real GDP shrank in the September quarter. Deloitte Access Economics’ Chris Richardson offers some context to the gloomy figures. “Perhaps a better way to describe it is the numbers have been artificially good for a while and now they’re looking artificially bad. The bottom line is that for four years now, Australia’s economy has been growing just a little bit below trend and that’s partly because the boom in China has peaked. China has slowed and that is throwing some challenges our way.” Richardson tells Michelle Grattan he sees a lot that is missing from the debate about how to strengthen the economy and the budget. “If you asked the person in the street - they’re aware that there are challenges but they don’t really know what they are and that worries me because getting good policies requires a good understanding from the electorate,” Richardson says. Richardson foresees minimal immediate cons

As the curtain falls on the year, one of the most powerful players in the new parliament looks back on his successes. Nick Xenophon nominates whistleblower protections and procurement law changes negotiated alongside the government’s industrial legislation as major achievements. “The government has agreed to sweeping changes to whistleblower protections in this country. Compensation for whistleblowers will be built into the registered organisations legislation that will apply to unions and employer organisations but most importantly it will also apply to corporations and to the public sector in the next 18 months and we’ve already begun the process on that. "The other big achievement, just a few days ago was with the ABCC legislation. The government has agreed to procurement law changes which will mean for the first time we’re more in line with some of our major trading partners,” Xenophon says. Xenophon tells Michelle Grattan that his team will have hard negotiations with the government “but we like to think

After ratifying the Paris agreement on climate change, the government is looking ahead to its 2017 review of climate change policy. Energy and Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg tells Michelle Grattan the government will have more to say about the review before Christmas. “The key is to ensure we’re on track to meet our 2030 targets, which is a 26-28% reduction in our emissions by 2030 on 2005 levels. We did beat our first Kyoto target by 128 million and we’re on track to beat our 2020 target by 78 million tonnes. But clearly the 2030 target is a larger one and a more challenging one,” Frydenberg says. “We’ve got some good mechanisms in place but we’ll be looking at the overall settings to ensure we meet our Paris commitments.” With some in the Coalition rattled by the growing popularity of One Nation, Frydenberg says: “The way to deal with it is to listen and to understand people’s concerns as to why they have left some of the major parties and to take action to ensure that they understand the good things