Politics With Michelle Grattan

ANU marketing lecturer Andrew Hughes says this is the first election where the advertising spend and activity has been more focussed on digital. He told The Conversation that on Monday, the first day of pre-polling, there was a surge in social media ads - the Coalition had over 230 different ads on Facebook while Labor had over 200. "The sheer volume of ads is probably the highest we’ve ever seen in Australian politics because of the number of ads just on Facebook alone," he said. He also spoke about the major parties pivoting between positive and negative ads and the effectiveness of this strategy, personal branding, and the rise of micro-targeting. Hughes said Clive Palmer's huge advertising spending spree seemed to be working for him - but it raised the question of the need for caps. Also, "as that tipping point between traditional and social media goes more in favour of social media [...] in the future I believe the conversation will be on how many ads Australians should be exposed to as a quantity, not b

While the major party leaders seem to have curated their images, University of Canberra assistant professor in communications and media Caroline Fisher says they can’t always control how these could be manipulated. Fisher says there has been “a real attempt to soften” Scott Morrison as the “daggy dad” through candid personal selfies. In contrast, Bill Shorten has opted for more professional shots which portray him “in a more prime ministerial light” but “are almost otherworldly”. She also discusses the way family, particularly their wives, have been used to increase warmth and relatability, as well as the use of negative messaging in the campaign.

Shadow Finance minister Jim Chalmers said Labor was looking for ways to make things fairer for low-income earners who were “largely left behind” in the government’s budget. He told The Conversation the measures “would be through the tax system and would most likely be around the low and middle income tax offset which the government introduced”.

From inside the budget lockup, The Conversation’s Business and Economics editor Peter Martin and political and economic journalist Tim Colebatch from Inside Story shared their reactions to the pre-election budget. Martin said the budget featured a substantial tax cut “that goes back in time” and that while the government was forecasting “good times around the corner,” there has been barely any sign of them. He also said he thought while the budget gives Labor an advantage, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is unlikely to be embarrassed by it in the future. Colebatch told The Conversation it “was a modest budget” and that the spending measures were “really fairly restrained”. “It recognises that the debate has shifted and people are less likely to be bought by big spending and more likely to be bought by the impression of fiscal reticence and control and delivering a budget surplus,” he said.

After more than two decades, Jenny Macklin is in her final days as an MP. Her legacies from her time as a Labor minister include parental leave and the landmark National Disability Insurance Scheme. In this podcast she tells The Conversation a Labor government would fix “one of the worst” problems of the NDIS by abolishing the cap on the number of staff that could be employed in the agency. “There are other issues as well […] there’s problems with the pricing of services. There just hasn’t been the quick response that has been needed,” Macklin said. She also speaks about the need to listen to and support Indigenous-led programs to close the gap, as well as implement measures to address increasing inequality in Australia.

The Australian Election Study, conducted by the Australian National University, has been running since 1987. Its director Ian McAllister says one thing voters will want at this poll is stability. McAllister says that for the first time in a long while, one of the major parties - Labor - has put forward some “very constructive policies”. But, he told The Conversation, Bill Shorten is very unpopular: he “ranks below any leader we’ve ever recorded across virtually every personal quality including things like trust, competence, integrity”. McAllister says the Coalition’s challenge is that the Liberals haven’t been looking after their base. He expects the election to highlight a “generational gap in voting” and probably a much higher level of “split-ticket voting” - people voting differently for the two houses.

The Sydney electorate of Warringah will be one of the most fascinating battlegrounds in the May election, with a high profile independent Zali Stegall challenging former prime minister Tony Abbott. Despite the seat being on about 11 per cent, Abbott describes this as a “full on marginal seat campaign”. Abbott is running hard on local issues. He says over-development and traffic congestion are the biggest issues and if reelected he is keen to use his position to be a “champion” for the Northern beaches tunnel. He’s trying to tone down his stridency, this week attempting to avoid being drawn to deeply into the row around the criminal conviction of Cardinal George Pell. Steggall, a lawyer and former Olympian, is running against Abbott on a campaign that says Warringah voters want “a new voice”. Keenly focused on climate change policy, Steggall is very critical of the government’s efforts and says even Labor’s energy policy “needs again to be toughened up.” Steggall, who grew up and lives in the electorate, has o

Independent MP Kerryn Phelps, who set the ball rolling for the medical transfers legislation, says its passage is “a remarkable exercise in cooperation”. Phelps says that of the about 1000 people on Manus and Nauru “around 70 people require urgent medical evacuation” and “another couple of hundred will require transfer but not as urgently”. She describes Scott Morrison’s proposal to reopen the Christmas Island detention facility as a “political statement”. “What we need to do is to have a regional resettlement option for people who are currently on Manus and Nauru so they don’t have to become so sick that they have to be transferred to Australia to await resettlement somewhere else.”   Additional audio  A List of Ways to Die, Lee Rosevere, from Free Music Archive. Image  AAP Image/Lukas Coch

Deputy prime minister and Nationals leader Michael McCormack says the banking royal commission report contained a good outcome for farmers. McCormack praised Nationals backbenchers Llew O’Brien, George Christensen and John “Wacka” Williams for their role in pushing for the commission, saying he was “really pleased” about major changes recommended in relation to agricultural loans. Acknowledging the big challenges ahead for the Nationals at the election, he told The Conversation he is “not going to write Cowper off yet” - a Nationals NSW seat under siege from Rob Oakeshott, who was an independent for the seat of Lyne from 2008-2013. With Williams retiring, McCormack says prospects for the NSW Nationals in the Senate are “difficult” and “it is yet to be decided” if the Nationals will run their own ticket in that state.

The Labor party has emerged from its three day national conference in Adelaide looking united and projecting itself as “ready to govern”. Labor deputy leader Tanya Plibersek told The Conversation the ALP wants voters to see the party as “responsible and progressive”. She says a Labor government would “work cooperatively with the trade union movement cause we share the same objective”. “The union movement hasn’t got everything they wanted from the Labor party in this instance, but a lot of the changes we have made have been made better by the discussions that we’ve had over many months leading up to this conference,” she said. On border security, Plibersek dismisses the use of three word slogans on both sides of the debate and argues “a more activist aid policy and more activist foreign policy” are needed to help asylum seekers.

Labor frontbencher Anthony Albanese, a senior minister in the last Labor government and briefly deputy prime minister, is preparing to “hit the ground running” if the ALP wins next year’s election. But meanwhile the opposition is concentrating on staying focused and on message, fully aware that things can always go wrong. Speaking to The Conversation, Albanese wouldn’t comment on Bill Shorten’s unpopularity with voters, arguing instead that it’s a matter of whether the Labor team is “seen as worthy of election”. Albanese predicts next week’s ALP national conference will be “very constructive”, dismissing concerns about divisions over boat turnbacks. The debate is not focused on that, he said – rather the emphasis is on settling people from Nauru and Manus in third countries, dealing with those needing medical assistance, and co-operating in regional processing. Asked about the ALP last week capitulating to the government over the encryption bill, Albanese said he wasn’t involved in the decision, which was “ma

Josh Frydenberg, who became treasurer and deputy Liberal leader in the tumultuous events of August, said the party has “big challenges”. While the party is “disappointed” by this week’s defection of Julia Banks to the crossbench they “remain as a group focused on the challenges ahead. And we have big challenges, there’s no doubt about that.” He said he “absolutely” will be keeping in touch with Banks. Frydenberg reiterates that the Liberal party is still a “broad church” and says he isn’t concerned about other MPs like Craig Kelly following Banks’ suit. “I know that Craig is a strong Liberal and that Craig will continue to put the government’s case.”

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (APEC) ended with no agreed communique and unresolved tensions between the United States and China on open display. Lowy Institute’s Pacific Islands program director, Jonathan Pryke, who observed the forum in Port Moresby, said: “it is distressing for all parties that they weren’t able to find common ground. There is a fear that we’re losing the middle here.” Pryke told The Conversation “the desire for a convergence of China into the international liberal order seems like a bit of a fantasy now.” But he says “whilst the summit has left everyone on a pretty sour note” because of the state of the communique “it is still important for all the middle powers to find more ways in which they can communicate and work together to maintain this liberal order.” On Australia partnering with America to develop a naval base on Manus, he said “the devil will be in the details … but it does send a strong symbolic message to China.”

Ahead of the release of the most comprehensive data on loneliness in Australia - by the Australian Psychologists Society - Labor frontbencher Andrew Giles speaks to The Conversation about this “contagious phenomenon”. Loneliness is a growing issue, Giles says. It’s not just among older Australians, as often conventionally thought, but also a problem for young people - with social media, paradoxically, a contributing factor. Giles who is working on a loneliness policy, thinks it is an area where politicians can “reach across the aisle”. He will co-sponsor a motion with Liberal MP Julian Leeser on the need to better understand the policy challenge.

Anne Summers, who has worn many hats during her career - journalist, editor, activist, senior public servant, and prime ministerial advisor - is concerned about the slow progress in Australia in addressing sexual harassment and assault. “I don’t know what it is that is holding [MeToo] back here,” Summers tells The Conversation. She believes there should be more naming of perpetrators, with the proviso that “obviously it’s got to be justified, obviously you don’t do it rashly and without and very credible evidence”. “I don’t see why you can’t name somebody who has been shown to have abused his position like that,” she said. Summers, who’s long campaigned on the issue of violence against women, declares “a forensic approach is urgent”. “I worry some of the research is not really problem-solving and focusing on how to end violence. It’s seeking more to understand the impact - and I think we already know the impact.”

Jonathan Biggins, who has been sending up politicians as part of The Wharf Revue for almost two decades, has some sharp words about social media - “the enemy of democracy, not its ally” - and a warning on political correctness. “We are entering an age of a new puritanism that is actually not only driven by the censorious right but by the equally censorious left who are saying this is no longer acceptable,” he tells The Conversation. “We’ve always had a free rein at the wharf but I can see shadows looming at the door”.

Some in the Nationals would like Barnaby Joyce back in the leadership before the election. Joyce speaking to The Conversation repeats that if the leadership were offered, he would be up for it - though he insists he is not canvassing. But his critics think he would have a “woman problem” - and Joyce acknowledges that to win support back from rural women he “would certainly have a lot of work to do”. The former deputy prime minister is the government’s special drought envoy, and ahead of Friday’s Drought Summit he says there’s still a lot to be done. While there’s been some recent rain, even for those farmers who have received it “the real relief does not become evident until such time as the money turns up at the bank”.

Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), Peter Jennings, says it would be "silly" to claim - as Scott Morrison does - that there is no connection between this week's announcement about the possible relocation of Australia's embassy to Jerusalem and Saturday's Wentworth byelection. This kind of decision would not have been considered by Malcolm Turnbull, Jennings says and if Julie Bishop were still foreign minister she "would have put up quite a fight". On Morrison's general foreign policy approach so far, Jennings says the new PM seems to be taking a more "conciliatory tone" to China. "If we see the Prime Minister moving away from the relatively hard line position that Malcolm Turnbull evolved over several years about China, that to me would be a concern."

The government’s majority is at stake in the October 20 Wentworth byelection, when the Liberals face voters still reeling from the loss of their member Malcolm Turnbull. ABC election analyst Antony Green says there’s likely to be a 10 per cent swing “as a start” - the result of losing Turnbull’s personal vote and a generally more intense battle. He says “the only danger” to the Liberals not winning the seat is high profile independent Kerryn Phelps but she may have made it harder for herself by “mucking up her preference comments earlier”. Liberal candidate Dave Sharma recognises the public’s disappointment and disillusionment with politicians and if elected is keen to “help improve the tone of the debate in Canberra”. He accepts “absolutely” the science of man-made or anthropogenic climate change and believes in Australia “keeping our international commitments” on Paris. Labor’s Tim Murray is “quite confident” he will finish second on the primary vote (although the ALP’s best chance of ousting the Liberals i

Shadow minister for financial services Clare O'Neil, who is leading Labor’s “roundtables” for victims of the banks and other financial institutions, says the ALP exercise will give a voice to people in areas the Royal Commission hasn’t had time to visit. “There’s vast swathes of the country where the commission hasn’t been at all.” she tells The Conversation. “I just utterly reject that this is a political exercise”, she says in answer to government criticism. O'Neil says she has “a lot of confidence” in Commissioner Kenneth Hayne but is concerned that with only four months until the final report there have not yet been any policy proposals. “It’s just that I think we will get to a better result if the government gives the commissioner more time.”