The Lowy Institute

The future of the Middle East peace process under US President Donald Trump, the use of chemical weapons in Syrian conflict, the implications for the United Nations’ role and its duties – these topics are politically, culturally, and ethically complex and are not easily navigated.The Lowy Institute hosted Mr Nick Kaldas APM, former Director of Internal Oversight Services in the United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA), to hear his views on these issues, followed by a question-and-answer session. Mr Kaldas was a former deputy commissioner of the New South Wales Police Force. He has recently returned from two years with the UNRWA based in Jordan, during which time he was seconded as Chief Investigator into the use of chemical weapons in Syria by the UN/OPCW (Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons).See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea have emerged as the testing ground for great power competition between the US and China, and as a lightning rod for rival claimants in the region, as well as Australia and Japan, to assert their own maritime rights.Lowy Institute Senior Fellow Richard McGregor moderated a panel with other pre-eminent experts on the South China Sea – Wu Shicun, of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, Linda Jakobson, of China Matters, and Professor Benjamin Schreer of Macquarie University – where they discussed the controversy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Foreign aid is an important resource for the Pacific Islands, and for many countries is a major point of engagement with the region. Yet public information at the project level is sparse, often lacks detail, and is difficult to access. This lack of transparency reduces the effectiveness of aid. It makes it difficult to coordinate aid efforts across multiple stakeholders. It makes it challenging for countries in the Pacific to align aid with their own investment priorities. It makes it harder for donors to learn from each other and from the past. It also reduces the accountability of aid, on both the sending and receiving sides, that flows in to Australia’s immediate region. The Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map helps address this situation. The Pacific Aid Map is an analytical tool designed to enhance aid effectiveness in the Pacific by improving coordination, alignment, and accountability of foreign aid through enhanced transparency of aid flows. The resource has collected data on close to 13,000 projects in 14

At the end of 2017, China announced it had been a year of “remarkable progress” on human rights. However, activists draw attention to an increasingly repressive environment in China, including restrictions on academic freedom; domestic human rights deteriorations in law, policing, and terrorism; the surveillance apparatus; and repression in Tibet and Xinjiang. Behind closed doors, Australia has raised human rights issues with China in annual high-level dialogues, and continues to work on human rights capacity-building projects with Chinese President Xi Jinping. What is the current state of human rights in China, and has the Chinese Communist Party been trying to improve the situation? How have different Australian governments (and others) engaged China on human rights, and how effective have those efforts been? Dr Merriden Varrall, Director of the Lowy Institute’s East Asia Program, moderated a panel with Dr Sophie Richardson, China Director at Human Rights Watch, and Natasha de Silva, Director Internationa

How are human rights in North Korea and broader regional security through North Korean denuclearisation connected, and can one be achieved without the other? Kim Jong-un’s successful pursuit of his nuclear agenda has arguably only been possible because of his ruthless wielding of power and control, and the surveillance and oppression of the North Korean people. The US and its allies want North Korea to denuclearise in the interests of regional and global security. Following the recent meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump, we have focused on if and how genuine denuclearisation can be achieved. But does the lack of any real public accountability that arises from the human rights situation in North Korea mean Kim’s promises at the Singapore summit are just empty rhetoric? Should human rights be a part of the denuclearisation discussion, and if not, what are the implications, both for the North Korean people and broader security? To explore these questions, Dr Merriden

When French President Emmanuel Macron recently visited Australia, the Australian government welcomed France as a stable partner in the Pacific region. Much of this stability relies upon the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia, which will hold a referendum on self-determination in November this year. The independence movement Front de Libération Nationale Kanak et Socialiste (FLNKS) has been campaigning for independence from France for more than three decades. Leading Kanak politician and official FLNKS independence spokesperson Daniel Goa spoke about the lead-up to the referendum, the FLNKS proposal for a Kanaky-New Caledonia republic, and economic options for an independent and sovereign state. At a time when the Australian Government is stepping up engagement in the Pacific region, he discussed implications of the referendum for ties between Australia and one of its closest Pacific neighbours. Daniel Goa is President of Union Calédonienne (UC), the largest member of the FLNKS independence coalition. H

Global wealth and power are shifting eastwards. Three of the world’s four largest economies are in Asia, and the fourth, the United States, is a Pacific power. By 2025, two thirds of the world’s population will live in Asia, and only around a tenth in the West. This transformation is reshaping the global distribution of power, with profound implications for war and peace in the twenty-first century.The Lowy Institute Asia Power Index is an analytical tool for tracking changes in the distribution of power in the region. It aims to sharpen the debate on geopolitics in Asia.The Index ranks 25 countries and territories in terms of their capacity to influence regional events, using 114 indicators across eight thematic measures of power: economic resources and relationships, military capability and defence networks, diplomatic and cultural influence, as well as resilience and future trends.The expert panel of Hervé Lemahieu, Director of the Asian Power and Diplomacy Program; Bonnie Bley, Research Fellow, and Daniel

The Lowy Institute hosted a conversation with Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove and Jessica Tuchman Mathews, former president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about the international role of the United States in the era of President Trump.Ms Mathews was president of the Carnegie Endowment for 18 years, and has also worked in the executive and legislative branches of government, in the non-profit arena, in the media, and science policymaking. She is a former director of the Office of Global Issues at the National Security Council, and has covered arms control, energy, environment, science, and technology issues as a member of the Washington Post’s editorial board.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over the course of nearly 60 years’ engagement with Southeast Asia, Milton Osborne has become one of Australia’s leading authorities on the region. His Southeast Asia: An Introductory History, first published in 1979, is now in its 12th edition and has been translated into five Asian languages.Osborne’s latest work, Pol Pot Solved the Leprosy Problem: Remembering Colonial and Post-Colonial Worlds, 1956–1981, is a memoir of his career as a young diplomat in Phnom Penh, from 1959–61, and later as an academic and consultant to UNHCR, when he worked in Vietnam and along the Thai–Cambodian border.Following remarks on his experience of these early postcolonial years in Southeast Asia, Dr Osborne was joined in conversation by Aaron Connelly, Director of the Southeast Asia Project at the Lowy Institute.Dr Milton Osborne has held various academic appointments, including as a nonresident fellow of the Lowy Institute. From 1982 to 1993, he returned to government service as head of the Asia Branch of the Office of Nation

Papua New Guinea is about to step onto the global stage. In November, leaders representing half of the world’s GDP will descend on Port Moresby for the APEC Leaders’ Summit. This will be the largest event the country has ever hosted. In the context of a struggling economy and development challenges, what benefits will APEC have for the people of PNG? What are the major opportunities and difficulties in hosting such an event? How will the links forged by the summit help bolster and diversify the country’s economy? The Hon. Charles Abel, Deputy Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, delivered an address at the Lowy Institute.Charles Abel has served as a Member of Parliament representing the Alotau Open Electorate since 2007. He has served as Minister for Culture and Tourism; Minister for Trade, Commerce and Industry; and Minister for National Planning. In July 2017 he was appointed Treasurer and Deputy Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The defeat of Malaysia’s ruling party on 9 May was unlike any election result the region has ever seen. No party in Southeast Asia has held power for so long, only to lose it at the polls. In its place, a broad coalition led by 92-year-old former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad has formed a new government. Can such a diverse coalition remain united as it addresses fundamental questions of the Malaysian social contract, including racial preferences? Mahathir once jailed Anwar Ibrahim, but has now freed him: how will their relationship develop as they seek to govern together? Will former Prime Minister Najib Razak be held to account for the 1MDB scandal, and how will the United Malays National Organisation react to its first experience in opposition? What will the change in government mean for Malaysia’s relationship with Australia, given Mahathir’s difficult history with earlier Australian prime ministers? The Lowy Institute’s Director of the Southeast Asia Project, Aaron Connelly, hosted a panel discussion wi

The latest Lowy Institute Paper published by Penguin Random House, Remaking the Middle East: How a Troubled Region May Save Itself by Anthony Bubalo, was launched in Sydney on 31 May.The Middle East is experiencing a period of concentrated turmoil unlike anything since the end of the Second World War. Uprisings, coups, and wars have seen governments overthrown, hundreds of thousands killed, and millions displaced.Anthony Bubalo argues that the current tumult is the result of the irrevocable decay of the nizam – the system under which most states in the region are ruled. But amid the ferment there are also “green shoots” of change which could remake the Middle East in ways that are more inclusive, more democratic, less corrupt, and less violent.Anthony Bubalo has worked on the Middle East for more than 25 years as a diplomat, intelligence analyst, and researcher. He has lived in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. He led the Lowy Institute’s Middle East research for 14 years, and regularly comments on the region’

The latest Lowy Institute Paper published by Penguin Random House, Remaking the Middle East: How a Troubled Region May Save Itself by Anthony Bubalo, was launched in Canberra on 29 May.The Middle East is experiencing a period of concentrated turmoil unlike anything since the end of the Second World War. Uprisings, coups, and wars have seen governments overthrown, hundreds of thousands killed, and millions displaced. Anthony Bubalo argues that the current tumult is the result of the irrevocable decay of the nizam – the system under which most states in the region are ruled. But amid the ferment there are also “green shoots” of change which could remake the Middle East in ways that are more inclusive, more democratic, less corrupt, and less violent. Anthony Bubalo has worked on the Middle East for more than 25 years as a diplomat, intelligence analyst, and researcher. He has lived in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. He led the Lowy Institute’s Middle East research for 14 years, and regularly comments on the reg

A highly anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is still set to take place on 12 June in Singapore. Beyond theatrical spectacle and global media attention, what can the unprecedented US–North Korea summit realistically hope to achieve? The Lowy Institute’s Director of Research, Alex Oliver, moderated a panel discussion with Dr Euan Graham, Director, International Security at the Lowy Institute, and renowned expert on Asia-Pacific security Professor Bates Gill, of Macquarie University, as they previewed the major issues likely to define the Trump–Kim summit and weighed its prospects for success or failure.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Matthew Busch, Research Fellow, East Asia Program at Lowy Institute and special guests Rahimah ‘Ima’ Abdulrahim, Executive Director of The Habibie Centre, Jakarta, and Sandra Hamid, Indonesia Country Representative for The Asia Foundation, had a discussion about Indonesia in an era of vigorous electoral competition and growing sectarianism. In advance of more than 100 local elections in 2018 and presidential and legislative elections in 2019, now is an ideal time to take stock of the trajectory of politics in Indonesia. Should we expect a repeat of the religious and ethnic mobilisations deployed during the divisive 2017 Jakarta gubernatorial election? How have other civil society groups responded to an injection of religious identity into the political sphere? Do these trends complement or threaten to undermine the consolidation of Indonesia’s democratic institutions on the 20-year anniversary of Reformasi?The Lowy Institute is grateful to the Australia-Indonesia Institute of the Department of Foreign Affairs

There is no more urgent security issue for Australia than North Korea, a nuclear-armed power with a regime described by Professor Robert Kelly as a ‘mafia state’. At his only public appearance in Canberra, Professor Kelly discussed North Korea’s enigmatic regime, its confrontation with the United States, and the likelihood of war. The conversation was moderated by Lowy Institute Senior Fellow Sam Roggeveen, and questions were taken from the audience. Robert Kelly is a professor of international relations in the Political Science and Diplomacy Department of Pusan National University in Busan, Korea. He is a regular contributor to The Interpreter and has written for The Diplomat, Foreign Affairs, The Washington Post, and The New York Times.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Turnbull government has announced it will introduce legislation to combat foreign intervention in Australian politics, after allegations of interference by the Chinese party-state. The government’s critics, in turn, say it has mishandled the issue, alienating Australia’s biggest trading partner, and unfairly targeting Chinese-Australians.Richard McGregor, Lowy Institute’s Senior Fellow for East Asia, hosted a panel discussion with Adam Ni, Australian National University (ANU); Maree Ma, Vision Times; and Su-Lin Tan, Australian Financial Review, for a discussion on the Chinese party-state’s influence operations in Australia and their fallout in domestic politics, regional diplomacy, and within the Chinese-Australian community.Adam Ni is a researcher at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, ANU. His main areas of interest include China’s foreign and security policy.Maree Ma is the General Manager of Vision Times, the largest independent Chinese-language media organisation in Australia.Su-Lin Tan is a re

“Prosperity” has been a significant theme in several of President Xi Jinping’s major speeches over the past year, both at home and abroad. But what does he mean by prosperity? And what challenges does this nebulous concept create? Domestically, Xi’s promise to transform China into a “moderately prosperous society” by 2020 has been well-received. But does it have global resonance?Australian National University’s Dr Jane Golley and Linda Jaivin discssed with Dr Merriden Varrall, Director of the Lowy Institute’s East Asia Program, about the myriad ways in which prosperity is evident in China today and what this means for the rest of the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Panel discussion on policy implications for Australia at the Lowy Institute conference between Dame Meg Taylor, Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, Dr Colin Tukuitonga, Dr James Batley, chaired by Dr Euan Graham. The discussion took place at the Lowy Institute conference Australia in the Pacific: enhancing security through regional resilience, held in Canberra on 5 April 2018.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Senator Marise Payne, Minister of Defence, delivering the keynote address at the Lowy Institute conference Australia in the Pacific: enhancing security through regional resilience, held in Canberra on 5 April 2018.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.