The Lowy Institute

Through the course of Xi Jinping’s presidency, China has been working to shape an alternative version of the internet – one in which the party state asserts its cyber sovereignty through an extensive censorship apparatus. Many foreign news sources are blocked at the border, and sensitive topics are censored. At a time when open societies are grappling with how to manage the downsides of a free internet such as hate speech and extremist material, other nations are embracing China’s restrictive practices.Hong Kong-based CNN International technology reporter and author of The Great Firewall of China James Griffiths, New York Times reporter Vicky Xiuzhong Xu, Lowy Institute Research Fellow and former Beijing-based diplomat Natasha Kassam, had a discussion with Lowy Institute Research Fellow Kelsey Munro, to explore the history, politics and reality of online censorship in China, and the consequences of an authoritarian internet for the rest of the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China’s economic future is more uncertain than ever. Challenges have mounted on multiple fronts, including slowing growth, rising financial risks, and increasingly difficult external relations, not least with the United States.Lowy Institute International Economy Program Director Roland Rajah hosted a conversation with one of the world’s foremost experts on the Chinese economy, Dr Nicholas Lardy of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.Dr Lardy will present the findings from his latest book, arguing that China’s future growth prospects could remain as bright as they were in the past, but are overshadowed by the spectre of resurgent state dominance.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

More than a decade since the global financial crisis, economic thinking has continued to evolve, shaped by the harsh realities of recent experience. With global economic governance also under pressure and potentially fraying, the kind of cooperation needed to contain potential crises and sustain global economic prosperity is vastly more difficult and uncertain. What are the key lessons from the 2008 crisis and what does this mean for managing future economic crises?Lowy Institute International Economy Program Director Roland Rajah and Professor Maurice Obstfeld, former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund and Professor of Economics at the University of California, Berkeley, discussed the latest economic thinking on the future of the global economy and where policymaking is headed.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the first episode of Rules Based Audio, Kelsey Munro talks to Professor David Shambaugh from George Washington University about the shift to full-spectrum competition between the US and China, and what it means for the rest of the world.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

After a coup, a new constitution and a controversial election, Thailand’s political future remains as uncertain as ever. The general election in March, the first since the 2014 coup, was marred by allegations of irregularities and the election commission will not announce the final results until May. In the meantime, the commission has brought sedition charges against the leader of a pro-democracy party that did better than expected in the election.Thailand is stuck in a protracted seesaw between democracy and military rule. How will the final election results affect this balance? What role, if any, will King Vajiralongkorn play in determining Thailand’s future trajectory after his coronation in May? And how will the political impasse impact Thailand’s chairmanship of ASEAN this year?Leading Thai political scientist Professor Thitinan Pongsudhirak and Director of Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Project Ben Bland had a discussion on what happens next in one of Southeast Asia’s most volatile nations.Thitinan Po

The attacks on Al Noor and Linwood Mosques in Christchurch, in which 50 people lost their lives, represent the deadliest mass killing in New Zealand’s modern history and the worst terrorist attacks ever carried out by an Australian. The events of 15 March have already prompted large-scale gun reform in New Zealand as well as a Royal Commission into the attacks. More broadly, the attacks have prompted reflection on violent extremism in all its forms – including the kind perpetrated by the far right – and on the nature of far-right extremism as a global movement.The Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion which looked at what changes are required at the policy and law enforcement levels to reduce the risk of extremist attacks; whether the Christchurch attack is linked to other far-right and white supremacist movements around the world; the nature of reciprocal extremism and how jihadism and far-right extremism may amplify each other; how online environments contribute to radicalisation; and how the Australian

Since the start of the Syrian civil war, up to 200 Australians have travelled to Syria and Iraq to fight with jihadist groups, and dozens more have been charged with terrorism offences in Australia. The legal process against jihadists in Australia and those returning from overseas will continue for years to come. Foreign fighters claim that they simply provided humanitarian assistance or did not fight, and domestic terrorists often blame mental health issues for their acts. Yet little is known publicly about their true motivations, how they organised themselves, what role mental health has really played in their actions, how contrite they have been, and how likely they are to be rehabilitated. Research Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan has written widely on foreign fighters and has been an expert witness in more than two dozen terrorism cases in Australia. He attempted to shed light on the often darkened world of the Australian jihadist, using their own words and those of the courts to try to explain the motivations

The Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator Penny Wong, addressed the Lowy Institute on what a Labor Government would mean for Australia’s international engagement. How does Labor see Australia’s place in the world? What would be the priorities for a Labor Government? After her address, Senator Wong joined Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove in conversation.Senator Penny Wong, Leader of the Opposition in the Senate, was first elected in 2001. She held several ministerial positions between 2007 and 2013, including Minister for Climate Change and Water and Minister for Finance and Deregulation. Since 2016 Senator Wong has been Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs.Dr Michael Fullilove is Executive Director of the Lowy Institute and a leading expert on Australian and US foreign policy. He is the author of Rendezvous with Destiny: How Franklin D Roosevelt and Five Extraordinary Men Took America into the War and the World.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The economy, tax, debt and health are the issues that are most likely to dominate the federal election campaign. But there are other matters of importance to Australians that should be debated. Which party is best able to balance our delicate relationships with Washington and Beijing? Both parties have promised to give a higher priority to our relationships in the Pacific but whose plans are most likely to succeed? Both parties are committed to increasing defence spending but will this fall victim to the competition to cut income taxes and achieve sustainable budget surpluses? Will spending on foreign aid also be sacrificed because of budgetary pressures? What do the findings of the Lowy Institute Poll tell us about voters’ attitudes?Lowy Institute experts discussed these and other important foreign policy and defence issues of the federal election campaign. Dr Michael Fullilove is Executive Director of the Lowy Institute and a leading expert on Australian and US foreign policy. He is the author of Rendezvou

Following a succession of severe conflicts that have caused massive loss of life, dislocation and grave human rights violations, the task of the human rights movement today is a daunting one. Has the international community become resigned to irresolvable conflicts and human rights atrocities? The Lowy Institute hosted Philippe Bolopion, Human Rights Watch’s Deputy Director for Global Advocacy, together with ABC foreign correspondent Sophie McNeill and human rights expert and legal advocate Chris Sidoti for a discussion about the challenges of working against atrocities in countries such as Syria, Yemen, and Myanmar, and how United Nations advocacy can be effective. The discussion was moderated by Lowy Institute Director of Research, Alex Oliver. Philippe Bolopion is the Deputy Director for Global Advocacy at Human Rights Watch, where he contributes to HRW’s advocacy strategies and its advocacy response to crisis situations worldwide. Bolopion has been with HRW since 2010, travelling extensively to conflict z

The relationship between Washington and Beijing is increasingly competitive. The economic interdependence that once underwrote the relationship now undermines it. The two militaries are testing the other’s resolve in the Pacific Ocean. A new “space race” in technology – 5G, artificial intelligence, and fintech – is fuelling mistrust. Why has Washington’s view of Beijing darkened? Is the US developing a coherent strategy on China? How is Beijing responding? Lowy Institute Senior Fellow Richard McGregor and Laura Rosenberger discussed the state of relations between the two global superpowers. Laura Rosenberger is Director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy and a Senior Fellow at The German Marshall Fund. She has previously served in a variety of positions at the State Department including managing US–China relations, addressing North Korea’s nuclear program and serving as an adviser to senior US diplomats Bill Burns and Tony Blinken. She also worked as National Security Council director for China and Korea

Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove had a conversation about global issues with Stephen J. Hadley, former National Security Adviser to President George W. Bush.Stephen Hadley is one of the most respected foreign policy makers in Washington, DC. He served for four years as the Assistant to President George W. Bush for National Security Affairs from 2005 to 2009. From 2001 to 2005, Mr Hadley was the Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Adviser, serving under then National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. Mr Hadley had previously served on the National Security Council staff and in the Defense Department including as Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy. Mr Hadley now serves as a Principal at RiceHadleyGates LLC and as Chair of the Board of Directors of the United States Institute of Peace.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Lowy Institute hosted Mr Mike Burgess, director-general of the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD), for an address on ASD’s offensive cyber capabilities. Mr Burgess has served as the head of ASD since 4 January 2018, becoming the first director-general of ASD on 1 July 2018. He has worked as an intelligence official, consultant, and private-sector chief information security officer. He has served on the Federal Government’s naval shipbuilding advisory board, the Australian Cyber Security Growth Network board, and as a non-executive director of SC8 Limited. Mr Burgess holds a degree in electronics engineering from the South Australian Institute of Technology.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On 17 April, 190 million Indonesians will vote for their president and parliament in one of the largest single-day elections the world has ever seen. Incumbent President Joko Widodo and rival Prabowo Subianto are facing off in a replay of the bitterly-fought 2014 campaign.Indonesia has become a vibrant and competitive democracy. But human rights activists are worried about the government’s use of legal tools against its opponents and the exploitation of heated religious rhetoric as a campaign tool. Meanwhile, vested interests in the armed forces, bureaucracy, and established political parties are stymying much-needed reforms.Eminent Indonesian political expert Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar, and Director of Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Project Ben Bland, discussed the elections, the state of democracy in Indonesia, and the implications for Indonesia’s international relations.Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar is a Research Professor at the Centre for Politics at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences. She previously

The implications for national security are often overlooked in discussions on climate change. In the Middle East, however, regional cooperation is vital when responding to the declining availability of water and periods of prolonged drought. How do you foster cooperation in a troubled region?Gidon Bromberg is co-founder of EcoPeace Middle East, an organisation which brings together Jordanians, Palestinians, and Israelis to advance sustainable and peaceful regional development, including in an ambitious project for the Jordan Valley. Mr Bromberg has written extensively on the relationship between water, peace, and security in the Middle East, and has presented to United Nations forums, the US Congress, and the European Parliament.Dr Rodger Shanahan, Lowy Institute Research Fellow, had a conversation with Gidon Bromberg about security, cooperation, and the preservation of scarce natural resources in the Middle East.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The nuclear non-proliferation regime is under threat. Disarmament has stalled. Challenges from Moscow, Pyongyang, and Washington are mounting. Deteriorating trust between nuclear states threatens the emergence of a new arms race.What does this mean for Australia? What role should we play in the global effort against nuclear proliferation? Should we sign the Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty? And how does our nuclear stance affect our alliance with the United States? The Lowy Institute hosted former foreign minister the Hon Gareth Evans AC QC and former chairman of the UN Human Rights Council’s Commission of Inquiry on Democratic People’s Republic of Korea the Hon Michael Kirby AC CMG for a discussion on Australia’s nuclear weapons policy. The event was introduced by Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove and moderated by Research Director Alex Oliver.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cyber issues are increasingly important — to governments, to businesses, to organisations and to individuals. Cyber affairs also play a significant role in Australia’s relations with other countries. In 2017 the Australian Government adopted the International Cyber Engagement Strategy to advance and protect Australia’s national security and national interests in cyberspace and to work with partners in the Indo-Pacific to improve cyber security and connectivity. The Lowy Institute hosted the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Senator the Hon Marise Payne, and Australia’s Ambassador for Cyber Affairs, Dr Tobias Feakin, for a discussion of these issues. The discussion was chaired by the Lowy Institute’s Executive Director, Dr Michael Fullilove.Senator Payne has served as a senator for New South Wales since 1997. She served 12 years on the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade, including a period as chair of its Human Rights subcommittee. She was Minister for Human Services from 2013 to 2015 w

To mark International Women’s Day in 2019, the Lowy Institute in partnership with Telstra hosted a special event on the impact of authoritarian regimes on women.Today is the era of the “strongman”, as a new wave of authoritarianism spreads across the globe. In countries as diverse as Russia, Hungary, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Poland, Brazil, Papua New Guinea, and the Philippines, macho leadership reigns. Even in contemporary western democracies such as the United States, the ranks of authoritarian populists have swelled. Aside from the grand displays of force, clampdown on minority rights and gagging of the press which typically characterise authoritarian regimes, another striking feature is the limits they impose on the freedoms and power of women.The panel featured:Dr Nicole Curato, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Deliberative Democracy and Global GovernanceLydia Khalil, Research Fellow in the Lowy Institute’s West Asia ProgramAlex Oliver, Director of Research at the Lowy Institute (moderator)Elaine P

The latest Lowy Institute Paper published by Penguin Random House, America vs the West: Can the liberal world order be preserved? by Dr Kori Schake, was launched in Canberra on 5 March.Schake, one of America’s most respected foreign policy practitioners, argues that the success of the liberal order is not preordained. It will have to be fought for, compromised for, and rejuvenated. Whether it can be done without American leadership will depend on the strengths of the major challengers — Russia and China — but above all on whether the West’s middle powers are prepared to band together.Dr Kori Schake is the Deputy Director-General of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. She is a contributing editor at The Atlantic, the author of Safe Passage: The Transition from British to American Hegemony and editor with General James Mattis of Warriors and Citizens: American Views of Our Military. She has worked as Director for defence strategy and requirements on the National Security Council staff, as Deputy

The United Kingdom faces a fast-approaching but possibly flexible deadline to leave the European Union on 29 March. What are the underlying reasons for the UK’s ambivalence about Europe? Why are both the main political parties split on this subject? Can Prime Minister Theresa May secure a deal acceptable to both Brussels and Westminster? Could there be a second referendum? What will other countries learn from this extraordinary period of British and European political history?Lowy Institute Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove and eminent British academic Sir Adam Roberts discussed the state of British politics and the future relationship between the UK and its European neighbours. Sir Adam Roberts is Senior Research Fellow of the Centre for International Studies in Oxford University's Department of Politics and International Relations. He is also Emeritus Professor of International Relations at Oxford University, and Emeritus Fellow of Balliol College, Oxford. He is one of Britain’s leading scholars of