The Lowy Institute

The Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion with Institute experts in Melbourne on the key issues likely to dominate the international agenda in 2020. Managing Editor of The Interpreter Daniel Flitton chaired an expert panel including Dr John Edwards, Senior Fellow in the International Economy Program; Jonathan Pryke, Director of the Pacific Islands Program; Lydia Khalil, Research Fellow in the West Asia Program; and Bonnie Bley, Research Fellow in the Asian Power and Diplomacy Program.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion with Institute experts in Sydney on the key issues likely to dominate the international agenda in 2020. Director of Research Alex Oliver chaired an expert panel including Lowy Institute Senior Fellow Richard McGregor; Hervé Lemahieu, Director of the Asian Power and Diplomacy Program; Rodger Shanahan, Research Fellow, West Asia Program; and Shane McLeod, Research Fellow with the Australia-PNG Network.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The new year has seen tensions between the United States and Iran increase to levels rarely seen before. The assassination of Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the ballistic missile response from Iran, and then the tragic downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, have yet again focused the world’s attention on this region. The vision of enormous crowds that turned out for Soleimani’s funeral procession, contrasted with the small but vocal crowds in response to Tehran’s shooting down of Flight 752, show how difficult it can be to understand how Iranian society sees the actions of the Iranian and US governments and Iran’s place in the region and the world. To better understand the situation in Iran and how Iranians view recent events, Lowy Institute Research Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan hosted a panel discussion with Dr Amir Mogadam from the University of Newcastle, Mahmoud Pargoo from the Australian Catholic University, and Mrs Azadeh Davachi from Deakin University to discuss the current tensions in the Gulf

With the threat of armed conflict looming more seriously over Asia than it has in decades, Oriana Skylar Mastro discussed Asian approaches to diplomacy during war. Professor Mastro’s new book, 'The Costs of Conversation', covers the diplomatic decisions of China and India in past conflicts in Asia and provides signposts for crisis management and conflicts in the future. After a war breaks out, what factors influence states’ decisions to talk to their opponent, and when might their position on wartime diplomacy change? How do we get from only fighting to also talking? The Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion moderated by Natasha Kassam, Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute, to discuss the obstacles to peace talks in wartime. Professor Oriana Skylar Mastro is an assistant professor of security studies at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, a Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, and an officer in the United States Air Force Reserve. Professor James Goldr

Digital authoritarianism is the use of digital technology by authoritarian regimes to monitor, manipulate and control both domestic and foreign populations. China and Russia are at the forefront, representing two distinct but related models. There are many dimensions to it, from the recent revelations China is developing facial recognition technology to sort people by ethnicity, to Russia’s attempts to create a sovereign Russian internet. Digital authoritarianism is reshaping the power balance between democracies and illiberal states. What can democracies do to level the playing field, without sacrificing core democratic values? My guest on this episode of Rules Based Audio, Dr Alina Polyakova, is the founding director of the Project on Global Democracy and Emerging Technology at the Brookings Institution. And she is the co-author of a recent paper, ‘Exporting Digital Authoritarianism’, published by Brookings. She argues that the west must start conceiving of the democratic digital domain as an asset in this

The elections in Taiwan in January promise to be one of the region’s most consequential polls in recent decades. With Beijing increasingly vocal about using force to unify the island with China, voters face a choice between a president determined to resist Beijing and an opponent struggling to articulate an alternative. The polls on the self-governing island, which has a pivotal role in high-tech global value chains, are also taking place in the shadow of protests in Hong Kong and growing US–China tensions. In the lead-up, Beijing has been taking a leaf out of the Russian playbook by overtly and covertly influencing Taiwan’s local media and community groups. The Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion about Taiwan’s upcoming elections, the implications for cross-straits relations and Taiwan’s future.Thomas J. Christensen is Professor of Public and International Affairs and Director of the China and the World Program at Columbia University and previously handled China and Taiwan in the US State Department.Nat

Rules Based Audio takes a look at China's interests, influence and intentions in the Pacific.Reports of a planned Chinese naval base in Vanuatu in 2018 helped focus policy makers’ attention on China’s strategic intentions and economic influence in the island nations of the south Pacific. But in many ways, the debate in Australia and the US lagged far behind the reality on the ground. These days the Chinese presence – from state owned enterprises, infrastructure projects, commercial ventures and a significant new wave of immigration – is, according to the director of the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Islands program Jonathan Pryke, everywhere in these tiny island nations. Jono talks us through the many dimensions of China in the Pacific. But first, a case study: Vanuatu is reaping over $100 million a year from the sale of passports, mostly to Chinese nationals; while there has been a big step up in Chinese loans and direct investment. But when earlier this year, Vanuatu-based journalist Dan McGarry reported on the

Australia faces no more difficult international challenge than managing its relationship with the People’s Republic of China, our largest trading partner and a peer competitor of our great ally the United States.Former prime minister Tony Abbott gave an address on China, followed by a Q&A session chaired by Dr Michael Fullilove, Executive Director of the Lowy Institute.The Hon. Tony Abbott was the 28th Prime Minister of Australia, holding that office from 2013 to 2015. Before being elected prime minister, Mr Abbott served as the leader of the opposition, a minister in the Howard government, and the member for Warringah.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hyperpartisan and foreign-state sponsored disinformation targeted at voters through social media is undermining democracy and interfering with elections from the US to India, from Indonesia to Taiwan. Authoritarian adversaries, partisan domestic actors, and weak democratic governments are using the platforms and the extensive data they hold on individuals to manipulate voters and spread false narratives. The implications for the health of democracies everywhere are troubling. And with the US Presidential election looming in 2020, many argue that not enough is being done to halt the spread of deliberately false and misleading information. How can democracies fight back? Kelsey Munro, host of the Lowy Institute's Rules Based Audio podcast, together with Katherine Mansted from the ANU’s National Security College and Harvard’s Belfer Center, and Lowy Institute Southeast Asia Project Director Ben Bland, had a thought-provoking discussion on democracy in the disinformation age. Katherine Mansted is a Senior Advise

The Lowy Institute hosted the Aus–PNG Network Melbourne social evening at the State Library of Victoria. Opening remarks for the evening were delivered by Mr Bruce Davis, Australian High Commissioner to PNG.Lowy Institute Research Fellow Shane McLeod chaired a panel discussion, 'PNG-Australia Education Links: Empowering girls and women in science and technology'.The panel included: Mary Mulcahy (AUS), Director, Education and Outreach for CSIROEdea Bouraga (PNG), Mechanical Engineer and current chair of Women in Engineering.Sarah Chapman (AUS), Head of Science, Townsville State High School. Nylah Torova (PNG), PNG student at Rockhampton Girls Grammar School. Mr Sakias Tameo, PNG Deputy High Commissioner to Australia, gave closing remarks. The Aus–PNG Network is a Lowy Institute project aimed at strengthening people-to-people links between Australia and Papua New Guinea. The Lowy Institute acknowledges the ongoing support of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for the Aus–PNG Network.See omnystudio.com/

Since 2012 several hundred Australians have travelled to Syria and Iraq to undertake jihad with Islamic State, al-Qaeda or other radical Islamist groups. Dozens more supported them financially or in the planning of attacks. There are many preconceptions about the types of people in Australia attracted to jihad, but there has been little data publicly available on which to base these assumptions. For the first time, Lowy Institute Fellow Rodger Shanahan has collected and analysed data on 173 individuals known to have joined radical Islamist terrorist organisations or who have been charged with terrorism offences. This new analysis provides comprehensive information on the backgrounds of Australians who have undertaken jihad, which will enhance our understanding of the typologies and motivations of those who are likely to be attracted to similar messaging in the future.Rodger Shanahan had a conversation with Lowy Institute Research Fellow Kelsey Munro to discuss this unique analysis of the Australian terrorist

“The fog of Australian politics on climate change has obscured a fateful reality: Australia has the potential to be an economic superpower of the future post-carbon world,” argues Dr Ross Garnaut in his new book Superpower: Australia’s low-carbon opportunity. The Lowy Institute hosted a conversation between Dr Garnaut and Roland Rajah, Director of the Lowy Institute International Economy Program, about the role Australia can play in meeting this critical global challenge. Ross Garnaut is Professorial Research Fellow in Economics at the University of Melbourne. In 2008, he produced the Garnaut Climate Change Review for the Australian government. He is the author of many books, including the bestselling Dog Days (2013).See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The mass commercialisation of artificial intelligence, machine learning technologies and automation, combined with outsourcing to lower income countries is about to cause massive upheavals and hundreds of millions of job losses in developed economies, according to my guest this episode of Rules Based Audio, economist and globalisation expert Professor Richard Baldwin. He warns that the next phase of globalisation is different, because of the speed and scale of the likely changes, and the expected impact on the middle classes in rich countries. Professionals who thought their jobs were safe are now directly in the firing line. There’s likely to be earth-shaking political consequences.It sounds pretty grim for the developed economies, but Professor Baldwin says he’s an optimist about where this will get us to in the future – if we can survive the socio-political earthquakes in the meanwhile. Richard Baldwin is a professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Stu

The Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen has written a provocative new book, 'Our Very Own Brexit', arguing that the political conditions which created Brexit also exist in Australia. But forget what you have read about populism and the rise of right-wing xenophobia. What Australia has in common with Britain and other Western democracies is something we rarely talk about: the steady decline of our big political parties. The ‘hollowed out’ state of contemporary politics could lead one of our political parties to exploit an issue that ties Australia to Asia and which will determine our future security: immigration.The Lowy Institute hosted an in-conversation event with Sam and award-winning journalist George Megalogenis to mark the launch of 'Our Very Own Brexit'.Sam Roggeveen is Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program. Sam writes for newspapers, magazines, and websites around the world about Australian politics, foreign policy, and defence policy. He is the founding editor of the Lowy Institu

As the United Kingdom faces a divisive but potentially decisive election framed around Brexit, the European Union is contemplating a future without the UK. If British voters back Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit plan, what sort of future relationship will the EU look to build with the UK? What will be the impact on Ireland and Northern Ireland? And how will Brexit affect Australia's ties with the EU? If the opposition triumphs, what are the chances that Brexit could be reversed and the UK's relationship with the EU reset? Ben Bland, the Director of the Lowy Institute's Southeast Asia Project, had a conversation with Pat Cox, former European Parliament President, on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU and its implications for the Union, the UK, and Ireland. Pat Cox served three terms in the European Parliament, and was President of the Parliament from 2002 to 2004. Prior to entering the European Parliament, he served in Ireland’s national parliament and worked in academia and the media. He is currently

Dr Rodger Shanahan unpacks the implications of the US withdrawal from Syria and the death of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in October 2019 in Syria. Are the two events linked? US President Trump’s decision to withdraw US forces from northeast Syria, abandoning the Kurds who fought with the US against Islamic State, allowed Turkey to invade and gave what Dr Shanahan says was “a gift” to Moscow and Damascus. He also discusses what the death of al-Baghdadi means for the future of the Islamic State terrorist group and other militant Islamist groups in the region; and whether the timing and proximity of the two events might be more more than coincidence. Dr Rodger Shanahan is a Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute specialising in Middle East security and terrorism studies. A former army officer, he had extensive service within the Parachute Battalion Group (PBG) and has had operational service with the UN in South Lebanon and Syria, with the PBG in East Timor, in Beirut during the 2006 war, and in Afg

In March 2019, Islamic State officially lost its caliphate. The last remaining sliver of territory under its control was overtaken by Coalition forces, and US President Donald Trump declared the militant group “100% defeated”. Yet Islamic State remains defiant. Its reclusive leader has made two public pronouncements encouraging his followers since the fall of the caliphate. It retains affiliate networks around the world, and in the wake of its defeat, it committed one of the largest terrorist attacks ever – the Easter Bombings in Colombo, Sri Lanka. But what does Islamic State mean without its caliphate, and in what ways does the organisation still pose a global threat? How are we to deal with the thousands of supporters, mostly women, who remain held with their children in camps run by Syrian Democratic Forces? How has Islamic State managed to maintain its presence in Asia while it has lost its caliphate? Has Asia become a new growth area for the group after its decline in the Middle East? Daniel Flitton,

What made America a great power? What is Trump doing to weaken America on the global stage, and what must the US do to revive its global leadership after the Trump presidency?Distinguished American diplomat Nicholas Burns, the Lowy Institute’s 2019 Rothschild & Co Distinguished International Fellow, gave a speech at the National Gallery of Victoria in MelbourneNicholas Burns is a Professor at the Harvard Kennedy School and served for 27 years in the US Foreign Service. Ambassador Burns was Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, US Ambassador to NATO for President George W Bush and to Greece for President Bill Clinton, and State Department spokesman for Secretaries Warren Christopher and Madeleine Albright.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former US Ambassador to NATO Nicholas Burns talks about the instability of US foreign policy under Trump and how to recover from it, the significance of US alliances in great power competition with China, and also why he rejects former US Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ pointed criticism of Senator Joe Biden’s foreign policy record.Ambassador Burns is the 2019 Rothschild Distinguished International Fellow at the Lowy Institute. He is one of the US’s most eminent former diplomats, having served under Republican and Democrat administrations in a 27 year career in the foreign service. He was US Ambassador to NATO and later Under Secretary for Political Affairs, the State Department’s third-ranking official. He is now a Professor of Diplomatic Practice and International Relations at Harvard University; and has more recently joined Senator Joe Biden’s campaign as foreign affairs advisor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On October 10, the Lowy Institute hosted Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte for a public address. Mr Rutte spoke about the future of the global rules-based order. Following his speech the Institute’s Executive Director Dr Michael Fullilove conducted a Q&A session with Mr Rutte.Described by the BBC as a “modest but steely liberal”, Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte is an important figure in European politics. He has been at the centre of Europe’s Brexit negotiations with the UK, has led the Netherlands’ response to the Malaysia Airlines MH-17 tragedy, in which 193 Dutch citizens and 27 Australians lost their lives, and he has witnessed and fought the rise of populist parties in Dutch elections. He has served as Prime Minister since 2010.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.