Turkey Wonk

In the past three weeks, Turkey has launched 11 raids and arrested some 55 people in a widespread anti-Jihadi crackdown. The crackdown has included the blocking of well known IS/AQ sympathetic websites and has come just after Turkey’s changing of its rules engagement along the border. What is behind the arrests? Who has been arrested? And what are some of the long term Jihadi related security challenges Turkey faces? To discuss these issues, Aaron speaks with northcaucasuscaucus, a blogger and analyst following Turkish and Azeri foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq Ankara cracks down on IS; but is it too little too late? - By Noah Blaser in Al-Monitor

The events in the Middle East over the past few years have prompted intense speculation about whether Iraq and Syria will collapse and be replaced with new political entities reflective of ethnic and sectarian differences. In today’s show, Aaron speaks with Michael Stephens, the Research Fellow for Middle East studies and Head of RUSI Qatar, about the recent Kurdish offensive in Syria, the problems in the Kurdistan Regional government, and the various plans for the establishment of buffer zones in Syria. The show asks whether the current efforts to defeat the Islamic State are effective and delves into the question of whether the break up of Iraq and Syria is inevitable.

The fall of Tel Abyad poses a number of challenges for Turkish foreign policy. The Kurdish advance has sparked claims of ethnic cleansing, resulted in 23,000 refugees fleeing to Turkey, and sparked concerns that Islamic State fighters have quietly slipped into the border town of Akcakale. To discuss the political and humanitarian aspects of the battle for Tel Abyad, Aaron speaks with Has Avrat, a southeast Turkey based specialist in humanitarian refugee issues. Sponsor: Tinderbox - a personal content assistant that helps you visualize, analyze, and share your notes. Download and try it today.

On June 7, over 50 million Turkish citizens went to the polls to vote in the country’s general election. While most polls showed Turkey’s fourth largest political party, the HDP, winning enough votes to pass the 10% threshold, few predicted that the AKP would fall short of winning enough seats to form a government. The AKP’s relatively poor showing has now raised questions about which opposition party makes the most sense as a n opposition party. To discuss these issues, Aaron speaks with Amberin Zaman, the Turkey correspondent for The Economist and a columnist for Turkey’s Taraf newspaper. Turkish Coalition Politics: Prospects for the Kurdish Peace Process by Aaron Stein Sponsor: Tinderbox - a personal content assistant that helps you visualize, analyze, and share your notes. Download and try it today.

With the Turkish national election just days away, the future of the country’s political system hinges on Turkey’s fourth largest political party, the HDP. To get a sense of the the party’s electoral chances, and whether the HDP’s efforts to undercut the AKP in Turkey’s Kurdish majority southeast are paying off, Aaron speaks with Noah Blaser and Piotr Zalewski about their recent trip to the cities of Urfa, Mardin, Midyat, and Diyarbakir.

This is the latest episode of the Middle East Week podcast. Aaron was the guest on the show to discuss the topics below. Aaron Stein comes back on the show to discuss Turkey’s upcoming election, their fight against ISIS, and relations with Saudi Arabia. Topics we covered include: An overview of the key political parties and politicians in Turkey Constitutional changes Erdogan and the AKP are pursuing Potential backlash AKP could face for pushing for a presidential system Kurdish politicians’ decision to run as a political party, as opposed to running as individual independent candidates The evolution of how Turkey views the ISIS threat Turkey’s strategy to fight ISIS in Syria Turkey’s lack of influence in Iraq, and how that effects their view of ISIS The rapprochement between Turkey and Saudi Arabia Links: Turkey’s Role in a Shifting Syria by Aaron for the Atlantic Council’s MENASource blog Aaron’s podcasts: Turkey Wonk & Arms Control Wonk Aaron Stein (@aaronst

Turkish citizens are playing an active role in the Syria civil war. With as many as 1500 Turks now fighting in Iraq and Syria, numerous Turkish officials are now expressing considerable concern about returning fighters. In today’s podcast, Aaron speaks with northcaucasuscaucus, a blogger and analyst following Turkish and Azeri foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq, about the history of the Turkish foreign fighter phenomena dating back to the Afghan Jihad. Links: northcaucasuscaucus blog The Clear Banner: Turkish Foreign Fighters and the Ogaden Mehmet Orhan, “Al‐Qaeda: Analysis of the Emergence, Radicalism, and Violence of a Jihadist Action Group in Turkey.”

Note: This episode was recorded on April 20th The famous Anatolian folk song, Yemen Turkusu, describes the painful memories of one Ottoman military unit from Mus, after being deployed to battle during World War I. The song’s haunting lyrics capture the difficulties the Ottoman’s faced in Yemen, saying “those who go never return.” Historians describe the Ottoman’s experience in Yemen as tumultuous, frequented by numerous local uprisings, and clashes with a powerful actor in the northern mountains: the Zaydi tribe, or the Houthis. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ignored history when he committed to supporting the Saudi led mission to rollback the gains of Yemen’s Houthis. Erdogan explicitly linked the Houthis’ rise to Iranian support – and called on the Islamic Republic and associated terror groups to withdraw. The antecedents for Turkey’s Yemen policy began in March during Erdogan’s high-profile visit to the Kingdom to meet with King Salman. To

Wow. It has been a busy week. Turkish politics were turned upside down last week when AKP founder Bulent Arinc called out current Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, about his rhetoric surrounding the peace process. Arinc’s intervention prompted Erdogan ally, the Mayor of Ankara, Melih Gokcek, to get involved and stand up for the Tall Man. A fight ensued. The fight ended on Sunday with an Erdogan victory; the Presidential system he has been advocating for overtly since 2011 is the center piece of the AKP’s electoral manifesto. How did we get here? What is going on with the peace process? What in the world is going on in Turkish politics? Where do the Kurds and the MHP fit in? Tune in today for a conversation about this very busy two weeks in Turkish politics with Noah Blaser, an independent journalist in Istanbul and a Turkey Wonk regular.

After threatening Erbil in August, Islamic State militants have steadily lost territory to the Kurdish Peshmerga. Backed by US airpower and Iranian military support, Kurdish forces have regained control over territory lost to ISIS, control much of Kirkuk, and are battling ISIS militants near Sinjar and Hawija. In today’s Turkey Wonk podcast, Aaron speaks with Fazel Hawarmy, a Kurdistan based journalist, about the Peshmerga’s multiple offensives, the battle for Sinjar city, and the forthcoming battle for the control of Hawija. In doing so, the discussion touches on the role of Turkey, the new sense of Pan-Kurdish nationalism after the battle for Kobane, and concludes with a plea for more tourists to visit Kurdistan. Links: Fazel Hawramy | The Guardian Senior Kurdistan Official: IS Was at Erbil’s Gates; Turkey Did Not Help Subscribe to the podcast in iTunes

After the Islamic State’s rapid advance, tensions in Nineveh, an area of strategic importance for Turkish leaders, are on the rise. Turkey’s influence in Nineveh stems primarily from its relationship with three political parties: The Iraqi Islamic Party, Muttahidoon, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). Turkey also has its share of detractors in Nineveh, including: the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan Party, and a slew of Shia militias. In this episode of the Turkey Wonk Podcast, Aaron speaks with Kirk Sowell, the principal of Uticensis Risk Services and publisher of Inside Iraqi Politics, about the situation in Nineveh, the PYD-PKK relationship with displaced Yazidis, Turkey’s potential role in the region to support the forthcoming Mosul operation, and Ankara’s relationship with Iraqi Prime Minister, Haider al-Abadi. Links: Inside Iraqi Politics Humpty Dumpty in Kurdistan | Foreign Policy by Kirk Sowell Turkey’s New Foreign Policy: Davutoglu

The US led air war over Iraq and Syria began in August 2013, after the Islamic State’s rapid advances in Iraq threatened the Kurdish capital of Erbil. The war has expanded into Syria and the US has been joined by a sizable number of Arab and Western partners. To date, there have been 2,400 strike sorties and 10,000 bombs dropped from a variety of platforms, including strike aircraft, bombers, and unmanned drones. What are the challenges the coalition faces? How does the no boots on the ground pledge impact targeting? What challenges to do drone pilots face when trying to provide close air support for coalition allied forces? To answer these questions and to get a sense of the current state of the air war, Aaron speaks with David Mujamdar, a defense reporter specializing in aerospace issues.

The PYD’s victory in Kobane has had a tremendous impact on Turkey’s Kurdish political movement. The feeling of Pan-Kurdish solidarity with Rojava - three autonomous cantons in neighboring Syria - has complicated the AKP and Abdullah Ocalan led efforts to strike a peace accord. The situation remains fluid, but schisms inside the AKP and the Kurdish political movement appear to have grown over two inter-related issues: Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s quest for an executive presidency and the PKK’s withdrawal from Turkey. Is the peace process beholden to Erdogan’s Presidential ambitions? How has Kobane changed the nature of Pan-Kurdish politics? Will the HDP’s electoral strategy backfire? To answer these questions, Aaron spoke with Amberin Zaman, a columnist for Turkey’s Taraf newspapers, as well as a contributor to Al-Monitor and other western publications, about the state of Kurdish politics in Turkey today. Links: Turkey and its Kurds: Dreams of self-rule | The Economist Kurd

There is a general consensus that Turkey is amid an authoritarian backslide. Is it as bad as generally believed? Are things better than they are made out to be? Is Turkey a one-man state with Erdogan at the head and everyone following? To get to the bottom of these issues I spoke with Howard Eissenstat, an assistant professor of Middle East history at St. Lawrence University. Stunted Democracy: Erdoğan, the AKP, and Turkey’s Slide into Authoritarianism - by Howard Eissenstat | Project on Middle East Democracy (POMED)

In the small Kurdish-majority city of Cizre, Kurdish affiliates of the PKK have been digging trenches to prevent Turkish security forces from entering the city center. In recent weeks, two Kurdish children have been killed during these clashes. Against this backdrop, a large majority of Kurds in Turkey have identified with their counterparts in the besieged Kurdish town of Kobane - the small enclave that has been under siege by Islamic State forces since summer 2014. The PYD-IS clashes prompted ore pronounced calls for unity through out the Kurdish majority areas in the Middle East. In today’s podcast, Aaron first speaks with Noah Blaser about the political impact of the Cizre clashes in Turkey. Later, Aaron is joined by Cale Salih for an in-depth discussion about the politics of the Kurdish movement more broadly and how Kobane and the wars in Iraq and Syria have affected the Kurdish movement. Links: Divided Kurds fight the Islamic State | European Council on Foreign Relations BBC News - Kurds demand u

What should we make of Turkey’s Imam Hatip High Schools? What is the deal with the Ottoman nostalgia in Ankara? Today, Aaron speaks with Alexander Christie-Miller about these issues. Erdogan Launches Sunni Islamist Revival in Turkish Schools - by Alexander in Newsweek

In part 2 of the joint Turkey Wonk & Middle East Week podcast series on Turkey’s Middle East foreign policy we cover Turkey’s foreign policy towards Syria and Iraq, from when the AKP came to power in 2002 to the current crisis. You can listen to part 1 here. What Obama Doesn’t Understand About Syria - International Crisis Group by Noah Bonsey Turkey Wonk podcast Middle East Week podcast Aaron Stein (@aaronstein1) on Twitter Karl Morand (@KarlMorand) on Twitter Sponsor: Scrivener - a powerful content-generation tool for writers that allows you to concentrate on composing and structuring long and difficult documents.

This is a joint Middle East Week and Turkey Wonk podcast about Turkey’s foreign policy in the Middle East. This is part one of two episodes that are based on a forthcoming book by Aaron Stein on this topic. In this first part we discussed: Turkey’s policy of “Strategic Depth” The motivations behind the AKP’s foreign policy strategy Turkey’s role as mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and their support for Hamas How Turkey reacted to the start of the Arab Spring in Tunisia Turkey’s reaction to the uprising in Libya and their role in the current conflict The ups and downs of Turkey’s foreign policy in Egypt after the fall of Mubarak Links: iTunes - Podcasts - Middle East Week by Karl Morand Aaron Stein (aaronstein1) on Twitter Karl Morand (KarlMorand) on Twitter Sponsor: Scrivener - a powerful content-generation tool for writers that allows you to concentrate on composing and structuring long and difficult documents.

As the Arab Spring got underway, Turkey and Qatar came together on what seemed to be the right side of history. Now, all their regional bets have all but collapsed, after both adopted a policy of unabashed support for the Muslim Brotherhood. This support, however, has impacted Turkish and Qatari interests in the Middle East more generally, and in Syria specifically. Where did it all go wrong? And how did this policy help undermine both countries’ efforts to topple Bashar al Assad? Today, Aaron is joined by Michael Stephens, the Director of RUSI Qatar, to discuss Turkish and Qatari policy in the Middle East. Sponsor: Scrivener - a powerful content-generation tool for writers that allows you to concentrate on composing and structuring long and difficult documents.

Does Turkey view the Islamic State as a threat? Do Turkish government officials embrace the idea of a Kurdish-Turkish alliance against a shared enemy: The Islamic State? Do the unfolding clashes portend the end of the peace process, or do both sides have an interest in sustaining the on-going negotiations? And do the the on-going clashes resemble similar unrest in Turkey during the 1990s? Today, Aaron speaks with Hugh Pope, a Deputy Program Director with the International Crisis Group, about the situation in Turkey. Sponsor: Scrivener - a powerful content-generation tool for writers that allows you to concentrate on composing and structuring long and difficult documents.