BhTV: Woodruff & Strauss (video)

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Arvind’s book and newsletter: AI Snake Oil ... A taxonomy of AI observers ... The impact of generative AI ... Why predictive AI sometimes fails ... Uses and misuses of AI in law and healthcare ... Can social media be saved? ... Heading to Overtime ...

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Are Democrats smart to spend in Texas and Florida? ... Is Trump smart to tell women he will protect them? ... Does Trump have a ground game? ...

Bob crestfallen over Mickey’s hat switcheroo ... Mickey blames DEI for Kamala tic he finds annoying ... Who’s less impressive, Kamala or Trump? ... Why Bob prefers Kamala’s foreign policy team to Biden’s ... The Vance dossier, revealed at last ... More arguments about Kamala ... Preliminary election analysis ... Trump, Vance, and Springfield’s cats and dogs ... Mickey’s Eric Adams conspiracy theory ... Biden diplomacy? What Biden diplomacy? ... Is cancel culture impotent? ... Election predictions ... Deeper election analysis ...

Deep insights about coffee and sleep from Paul ... Mindfulness and cognitive behavioral therapy ... Oligarchy + paranoid billionaires = disaster ... Ackman and Thiel join Elon in billionaire la la land ... Is Trump anti-Semitic or just really pro-Israel? ... If you don’t feel alienated you should seek counseling ... Heading to Overtime ...

Would Kamala Harris have been worse off if Biden resigned? ... Why is Matt losing conservative friends? ... Should politicians fact check constituent stories? ...

Would a different US president have made a difference for Gaza? ... Saudi-Israel normalization takes a step back ... Is all hope lost for a two-state solution? ... Making sense of Israel’s pager attacks in Lebanon ... Heading to Overtime—and an AP PSA ...

Why didn’t OpenAI call its new o1 AI GPT? ... Tim’s first impressions of o1 ... What’s the secret to o1’s better reasoning? ... Inspecting AI introspection ... Does o1’s capability for deception bring us closer to doom? ... AI doomers’ Hollywood problem ... Elon’s self-driving speed bumps ... Heading to Overtime ...

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What Kamala got right ... What Trump got wrong ... Why undecided voters are the worst ... Why probabilistic forecasts are stupid ... Do the Swift and Cheney endorsements matter? ...

Tragedy strikes the Wright household ... Breaking down the big Trump-Kamala debate ... Are debates actually valuable? ... Kamala’s worst debate moment (according to Bob) ... Elon vs Taylor Swift, Brazil, and himself ... Bob and Paul argue about free speech ... Heading to Overtime ...

Is Ukraine’s Kursk invasion failing? ... Why Russia may outlast the West in Ukraine ... Zelensky’s cabinet shakeup ... Prospects for a peace deal ... Russian elites’ views on the war ... How the Global South can help end the conflict ... Heading to Overtime ...

Is Biden-Harris foreign policy neoconservative or Reagan conservative? ... How much are Trump and Biden alike on foreign policy? ... Matt warns up to Walz ... How should Harris approach next week's debate? ...

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What's wrong with Walz joining Harris for her first interview? ... Should Harris have gone local for her first interview? ... Why is Trump embracing RFK Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard? ...

Steve’s books, The Hell of Good Intentions and The Israel Lobby ... How Israel helped spawn Hezbollah ... Why US leaders abet Israel’s self-destructive behavior ... Netanyahu’s longstanding opposition to a Palestinian state ... The Israeli policy that doomed Israel-Palestine relations ... Steve’s writings on US foreign policy and the election ...

Bob and Paul’s time-warping podcast experiment ... Does thinking in bets better your thinking? ... Past prediction 1: Will the presidential race tighten up? ... J.D. Vance memes of yester-month ... Past prediction 2: Who will Kamala pick for VP? ... When reality gets weird ... Heading to Overtime ...

Emma’s forthcoming book on US grand strategy ... Gaza, Ukraine, and Mearsheimer’s realism ... The DC establishment’s dark view of world affairs ... How the Gaza war hurts American interests—and America itself ... Is the time ripe for realism and restraint? ... National problems that require international cooperation ... Heading to Overtime ...