Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Jerome Powell's Statement: Rates left unchanged in the US. Possible rate cuts on the table for September. US MPC meeting on 19 September. Data needed: improving inflation and higher unemployment. Oil and Gold Market Update: Brent Crude: Under pressure, signaling weak global demand. Lower highs trend since June 2022. Support at $72.50 and resistance around $88. Brent Oil | 01 August 2024  Gold: Trading near all-time highs. Strong central bank buying. Uncertain targets, but bullish sentiment persists. Gold | 01 August 2024 Potential JSE Delistings: Criteria: Dividend yield > 0, market cap < 5 billion ZAR, NAV price > 100, P/E < 10, and profitable. Initial search yielded 53 stocks, refined criteria (dividend yield > 5%) narrowed it down to 25. Top candidates: African Media Entertainment, Argent, Combined Motor Holdings*, eMedia, Frontier Transport, Home Choice, Mustek, PrimeServe, Transpaco. Shoprite*: Trading at all-time highs. 12% revenue increase, 6.3% like-for-like growth, 5.8% inflation.

Presidential Vision for Infrastructure Development: The South African President's recent speech emphasised making the country a hub of construction and infrastructure development. The potential for public-private partnerships and the types of infrastructure that might be developed, including roads, energy transmission, and public buildings. Stocks That Could Benefit: Construction Stocks: A detailed look at various construction-related companies and their potential to benefit from the President's infrastructure plans. PPC: Potential benefits from increased construction activity. Murray & Roberts: Despite historical losses, they have a division in infrastructure and renewable power that might benefit. Stefanutti Stocks: Focus on their claim against Eskom, which is crucial for their future. Wilson Bayly Holmes (WBHO): Expected growth, though a significant portion of their revenue comes from Australia. Raubex: Strong performance and solid management, with significant involvement in road construction through

SA GDP Growth Prospects IMF's projection: 0.9% GDP for South Africa this year. Potential factors for growth next year: Reduced load shedding could add 1% to GDP. Two-pot system introduction, expected to inject around 40 billion rand into the economy. Potential rate cuts: half a percent by the end of the year, possibly 1% by mid-next year. Inflation targeting at 4.5%. Optimistic outlook with a 60-70% probability of achieving 3% GDP in 2025. South Africa GDP Delistings and Market Movements Bell and Sasfin delisting announcements. Other potential delisting candidates in the small-cap space. Importance of constructing a portfolio that can benefit from economic growth and potential takeouts. Bell weekly chart Pick n Pay Rights Issue Explanation of the rights issue and its implications. Instructions for shareholders on handling nil paid letters. Simon's perspective on waiting for dust to settle before considering Pick n Pay shares. Today is the last day to trade before Pick n Pay rights issue kicks in.

Load Shedding Update Milestone: 100 days of no load shedding by Friday. Factors: New capacity online, Kusile unit 5 (800 MW), upcoming additions from Medupi and Koeberg. Impact: Reduced GDP loss (previously 1.8% of GDP due to load shedding). Positive effect on inflation and economic stability. Winners: Retailers: Shoprite*, Pick n Pay, Spar (less expenditure on diesel). Manufacturers: Invicta, Hudaco (benefit from increased customer stability). Real Estate: REITs with shopping centers, reduced generator use. Interest Rates Jerome Powell's Speech: Potential for a single rate cut in November. Impact on Markets: Minimal immediate impact, with expectations already priced in. Local MPC Meetings: Predictions for rate changes on 19 September and 21 November. Market Insights Mr Price*: Ex-dividend yet the stock price increased, indicating strong sector performance. Tesla Analysis Market Share: Decline in second-quarter sales but maintains a significant market share (~50%). Challenges: Increased competiti

Key Takeaways MultiChoice Trading Opportunity: Potential for profit if the Canal+ deal goes through, despite current low stock prices. Futures Trading: Importance of understanding margin, liquidity, and strategy when trading ALSI and ALMI futures. Market Conditions: Current cheap valuation of SA Inc stocks presents opportunities, pending political stability and cabinet announcements. MultiChoice Mis-pricing: Discussion on the 125 Rand mandatory offer from Canal+ for MultiChoice. Current stock trading at 102 Rand due to poor financial results. Analysis of Canal+'s offer document, potential deal completion, and possible trading opportunities. Index Futures - ALSI and ALMI: Detailed overview of trading ALSI (All Share Index) and ALMI (All Share Index Mini) futures. Explanation of points trading, margin requirements, and contract specifics. Tips on trading strategies, including liquidity considerations and handling overnight gaps. Trading as a side hustle, watch the video. Market and Stock Updates: Cabine

Face-Ripping Rally on the JSE: Surge attributed to the formation of a coalition government involving ANC, DA, and IFP. Top 40 index rose 3.5%, a significant increase not seen since February 2018. The rally, likened to the start of a marathon, suggests potential long-term growth, despite possible volatility. RAND and Resource Stocks: RAND trading under 18, affecting resources positively. Potential for RAND to strengthen further, possibly reaching 17. Coalition Government and Market Impacts: The coalition’s stability is uncertain but critical for long-term market confidence. JP Morgan upgraded South Africa from underweight to overweight, signaling positive outlooks. SA Inc Stocks and ETFs: Retailers like Shoprite*, Mr. Price*, Foschini Group*, and Truworths hitting 52-week highs. ETFs for local investors, focusing on SA Inc.. Recommendations include avoiding heavy Rand Hedge dual-listed miners in a strong RAND environment. RSA Retail Savings Bonds: Interest rates for RSA Retail Savings Bonds to drop i

US Inflation: Core Inflation: Came in at 3.4%, lower than the expected 3.5% and previous 3.6%. Impact: Positive market reaction, with US Treasuries under pressure, Rand strengthening, and Dollar weakening. FOMC Outlook: Potential rate cuts anticipated towards the end of the year, possibly in November and December. Company Results: SPAR: Performance: Results were as expected, market responded positively. Issues: Challenges in Switzerland, discontinued operations in Poland, and ongoing SAP implementation issues. Foschini Group: Performance: Strong results, market reacted favorably. Highlights: Good performance in their online platform Bash and general improvement across brands. Foschini Group and Clothing Retailers: Potential growth areas and resistance levels in stock prices. Interesting Stock: Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited (CATL): Sector: Battery technology for EVs and corporate solutions. Market Performance: Positive analyst ratings, promising future prospects. Renergen*: Helium Pr

New Two-Pot Pension System: Details on the implementation and implications for retirement savings. Kicks in 1 September 2024 Can take up to R30k immediately, but this will be taxed. Thereafter 30% of contribution go into a savings pot your can take out, it will be taxed. Only use for an emergency, not holidays. Rainbow's Return to JSE: Analysis of Rainbow's re-listing after 17 years. RCL Foods will be unbundling later in June One Rainbow share for every RCL Foods share But is Rainbow the best chicken stock on the JSE? OPEC+ Impact on Oil Prices: Members agreed to cut voluntary production cuts Oil crashed As did Sasol [caption id="attachment_42315" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Brent oil | weekly | Koyfin Q1 GDP Results: Negative Q1 Q2 should be slightly better thanks to reduced load shedding But election will have worried investors. Santova Stock Analysis:  Buyer at 750c Seller at 760c [caption id="attachment_42316" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Santova daily | 06 May 2024 | Koyfin Coalition T

  Election Results Impact on Markets Slow ballot counting with three ballots, 18.7% counted. CSIR prediction at 5%: ANC 42%, DA 22%, EFF 9%, MK 14%, Patrick Alliance 2%. Market concerns about ANC forming a coalition. Rand fluctuations: From 18.34 on Tuesday to 18.61 currently. [caption id="attachment_42259" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Rand | 1pm 30 May 2024[/caption] Pepkor Results: 9.5% revenue growth. 24.5% growth in fintech, now 12% of the business. Pepkor sells 7 out of 10 smartphones in South Africa. Woolies (Woolworths) Update: Earnings down 20% for the year ending June. Challenges in the clothing segment, further deterioration in footfall and discretionary spend. Food segment performing better, but overall market reaction negative. Zeda Results: Revenue growth of 19%, HEPs up 12.5%, return on equity at 28.5%. Surprise 50 cents dividend despite previous year-end dividend expectations. BHP Billiton and Anglo American Merger BHP walked away from the Anglo-American takeover proposal. Specula

Nvidia's Financial Performance Nvidia's Q1 Results: Revenue up 262% year-on-year to $26 billion. Net income up 628% year-on-year to $14.9 billion. Gross margins at 78.9%. Stock Split: 10-for-1 stock split set for 7 June. Market Reaction: Stock traded over $1,000 in the aftermarket. Anglo American and BHP Group BHP's Third Offer: Anglo American rejects BHP’s third offer. Deal Concerns: Issues with the price and risk of the deal. Next Steps: Extended deadline for BHP's offer to 29 May. Richemont's* Results Richemont's Position: Holding steady in a tough luxury market. Earnings Growth: Expected around 10% over the next few years. Preferred Stock: Richemont favored over LVMH for its focused luxury product line. Copper Market Copper Boom: Strong performance but cautious outlook due to potential price pullbacks. Investment Options: Local ETNs and offshore ETFs available for copper investment. Structured Products Educational Video: Power Hour session on structured products by Kevin Swartz from Standard B

Anglo-American vs. BHP Group Anglo-American rejects BHP Group's offer, unveils its own restructuring plan. Anglo-American to divest De Beers, Anglo-American Platinum, coking coal in Western Australia, and reduce spending on UK fertilizer businesses. Focus on high-quality iron ore and copper assets. Discusses shareholder likelihood of accepting Anglo-American's plan over BHP Group's offer. Discussion on lab-grown diamonds and potential impacts on the market. Market Insights Tencent's positive results impact Naspers and Prosus. NASDAQ and S&P close at all-time highs. Analysis of South African market trends, influenced by gold stocks, Naspers, Prosus, Richemont, and Rand strength.   [caption id="attachment_42112" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Top40 close 15 May 2024[/caption] Discussion on upcoming elections' market impact. NHI bill signed, causing sell-off in healthcare stocks. US imposing more tariffs on China, strategic implications discussed. Company Highlights Positive financial results from C

Introduction: Simon Brown kicks off the episode discussing the current state of the Rand, noting its stability leading up to the elections despite fluctuations. Speculation around ANC's momentum in the polls and potential coalition scenarios. The impact of the dollar's weakness on the Rand's performance. Structured Products: Simon delves into the concept of structured products, which offer capital guarantees and enhanced returns through strategic investment mechanisms like options and bonds. Announcement of an upcoming Power Hour with Standard Bank focusing on structured products. Brief overview of actively managed certificates, also at next weeks Standard Bank Power Hour. FNB's New ETNs: FNB's introduction of new Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs), including a variety of indices and US-listed stocks. Explanation of Compo and Quanto variations, tailored to currency impacts. Highlights of recently launched ETNs, such as Nvidia, Booking Holdings, Eli Lilly, and Palo Alto Networks. Amazon.co.za's Arrival: Si

Rate Cuts and Economic Outlook Jerome Powell's statement from the FOMC meeting: "Inflation remains too high and the path forward is uncertain." No rate cut was announced at the FOMC meeting. Speculation on upcoming rate cut possibilities and their impact on the economy. Local economic outlook and potential changes due to the upcoming election. BHP Group's Interest in Anglo-American BHP Group's* proposal to buy parts of Anglo-American, leading to market speculation. Complexities of the deal and potential impact on stock prices. Analysis of BHP Group's interest in Anglo-American's assets, particularly in copper Potential effects of the deal on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and overall market sentiment. Historical context of Anglo-American's significance in South Africa's mining industry. Chinese Market and Economic Data Overview of China's economic challenges and recent data indicating resilience. Discussion on Chinese stock market performance and factors influencing consumer sentiment. Oil Marke

ff Capitec Results: Simon analyzes Capitec's recent financial results, highlighting strong metrics such as return on equity, active clients, and app usage. However, he notes concerns about the bank's expensive valuation compared to its competitors. SARB Monetary Policy Review: Simon discusses the South African Reserve Bank's recent review, indicating a reluctance for rate cuts in the near future due to inflationary pressures and economic uncertainties. Key takeaway from the bi-annual Monetary Policy Review of the @SAReserveBank: Don’t bet on a domestic interest rate cut this year. https://t.co/mhRS5vKIFQ pic.twitter.com/sc5p9GPcf5 — Adrian Saville (@AdrianSaville) April 24, 2024   Sasol Woes: Simon discusses Sasol's poor performance following a production update, expressing skepticism about its future prospects despite its low stock price. Other Market Updates: Simon touches on Tencent's positive performance, gold and oil price movements, and the potential impact on global markets * I hold ungeared

UK and Local Inflation: UK inflation surprises at 3.2%, lowest in over two years. US Fed unlikely to cut rates soon, waiting for FOMC meetings. South Africa's CPI data for March at 5.3%, showing a positive trend. Potential for SA rate cuts, depending on US decisions. [caption id="attachment_41866" align="aligncenter" width="849"] SA Inflation 5.3% for March 2024[/caption] China and Commodities: China's GDP surpasses expectations at 5.3%, amid concerns over Fitch downgrade. Export data reflects overstocking, driving prices down. Despite challenges, China's market appears interesting. [caption id="attachment_41867" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Chinese GDP YearONYear per quarter[/caption] PGMs, oil, gold, and other commodities. Gold remains strong, targeting $2500. Recent attack on Israel by Iran affects oil prices. WeBuyCars listing and potential market impact. Transaction Capital analysis and investor considerations. Purple Capital* Results: Purple Capital swings back to profit, surprising the mark

kk Sasol Secunda Reprieve Recap of Sasol's recent developments. Minister's agreement to Sasol's appeal regarding emissions at Secunda. Stock bounce and support level analysis. Target prices discussion and outlook for Sasol. PGM Miners' Performance Analysis of platinum group metal (PGM) miners' performance. Notable increases in stock prices. Consideration of factors affecting the industry, including production cuts and demand for catalytic converters. Exploration of whether the current uptrend indicates the beginning of a bull market. Discussion on supply and demand dynamics in the PGM market. Mention of Sibanye Stillwater's* CEO's forecast. Reflecting on year-to-date performance of PGMs. Insights into the future trajectory of PGM prices and potential risks. [caption id="attachment_41807" align="aligncenter" width="849"] PGM and miner moves for the month of April up to the 9th[/caption] Fitch Cuts China's Outlook to Negative Overview of Fitch's downgrade of China's outlook. Analysis of implications for

Commodity Market Analysis Oil prices are on the rise, currently trading around $89 per barrel, indicating both demand and supply factors at play. Factors affecting oil prices include supply disruptions from Russia and Saudi Arabia's production cuts through OPEC+. Concerns about inflation are reflected in the rising price of gold, which is currently trading at all-time highs above $2300 per ounce. Despite uncertainty, inflation is not expected to decrease soon, especially with increasing energy costs Discussion on the delayed rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the global outlook on inflation. Implications of Goldfield's Chilean Mine Production Goldfield's Chilean mine is expected to produce gold at significantly reduced costs in the coming years, potentially impacting global gold supply. Analysis of the time taken for new mines to commence production, highlighting the challenge of meeting future demand. Tax Collection Insights from SARS SARS reports an additional R10 billion in tax receipts, co

  Old Mutual Results: Surprisingly strong results from Old Mutual. Despite stagnant GDP growth and population decline, Old Mutual shows strong growth, indicating market share acquisition. Expansion into banking sector questioned due to market saturation. Stock analysis: Trading around 1184, showing potential support at 1150 and resistance at 1240-1280. Considered cheap with PE ratio around 7.7 and dividend yield over 7%. Market consensus predicts an average price target of 14.81. Skepticism remains regarding the bank launch and overall upside potential. MTN Results and Analysis: MTN's earnings affected by Naira devaluation in Nigeria. Earnings per share down 72%, impacted by tax issues and currency devaluation. Stock analysis: Chart showing positive signs, with potential for short-term growth. Market consensus includes three strong sells, five holds, and four buys. Telco sector struggles due to price pressures and constant capital expenditure. Limited upside potential for telco stocks, including MTN. ADv

Market Updates: Recent news on Markus Jooste's fine and tragic passing prompts reflection on justice and mental health awareness. Telkom's sale of its towers business for R6.75 billion highlights strategic shifts and potential opportunities in the telecom sector. Ongoing rise in oil prices raises concerns about inflationary pressures and global economic impacts. Market Analysis and Insights: Gold's Surge: Gold prices hit new all-time highs above $2200, reflecting investor concerns and market sentiment following Jerome Powell's recent statements on inflation and monetary policy. Gold mining companies show varied responses, with Pan-African, Goldfields, DRD, and Anglogold Ashanti experiencing gains. Interest Rates and Economic Outlook: Powell's announcement of no immediate rate cuts and a projected total of three cuts for the year signals a cautious approach towards inflation. Rising interest rates pose challenges for companies with significant debt burdens, while those with ample cash reserves stand to

Retire well, we're chatting with retirees about what they've learnt and any tricks they can pass on. US Inflation Trends: US inflation has remained stagnant at 3.2% since June of the previous year, defying expectations. Despite initial projections, inflation has not reached the anticipated 4% mark, staying just above 3%. Discussion on potential implications for the economy and monetary policy, including the possibility of a mid-year rate cut.   Local Property Market Concerns: Review of recent challenges facing Pick n Pay and its impact on property stocks and landlords. Analysis of Hyprop's trading update and its implications for the broader property sector. Discussion on potential strategies for landlords facing challenges from tenant closures and renegotiations. Quantum Food and Market Speculation: Examination of recent market speculation surrounding Quantum Foods and its stakeholders. Evaluation of market reactions to news events and projections for future stock performance. Get 10% off your firs