Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Can DIY investing beat the market? Simon Shares PPC in real trouble. Management have let the company down by not spending up capex locally, not hedging their USD debt and now they need a massive rights issue. Will they survive? Are local markets pricing in a downgrade? Nobody knows either what Standard & Poors will say or what the market is or is not pricing in. We have a new podcast going live every week, The Fat Wallet Show. In it Just One Lap CEO Kristia van Heerden, picks a topic and asks questions until she gets an answer. She kicked off with structured products. Momentum portfolio update for the quarter ending May 2016 is here, life time returns below. Momentum portfolio life time returns We Get Mail Daniel Now if research shows that the percentage of fund managers that outperform the index over a 1, 3, 5+ year period get smaller and smaller then, what chance do we as retail investors have of: A) outperforming a fund manager (with CFA's, CA's, research teams) when stock picking; and B) out

A simple diverse ETF portfolio Simon Shares Balwin (JSE code: BWN) knocked their results out of the park, but my bigger picture concerns remain. Standard & Poors down grade or not is next Friday. I did a Twitter poll that came in split by 1 vote. So nobody knows. Twitter poll on SP downgrade Complexity of costs. Come industry make it simple. Mining: Returning to the mean? Peter Major did an excellent JSE Power Hour for us, the video is here. On the ETF blog this week we look at the Pref shares ETF (JSE code: PREFTX). 2 June at 5.30pm,Keith McLachlan on building a small and mid cap portfolio the right way. Book here. Nerina Visser, director at ETFsa.co.za Which ETF if you buying for; R300 / month (CTOP50) R1000 / month (CTOP50, DBXWD & ASHINF) Large lump sum into a TFSA (CTOP50, DBXWD, ASHINF & PTXTEN) We also chatted about costs, are we missing any ETFs as an industry and how to respond to the potential downgrade from Standard and Poors.  JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the

Doing risk right A very long show this week (over an hour), but totally worth every second of listening. Last week I reflected on the Sanlam i3 Summit I attend and his week I speak with Roland Rousseau (Head of Barclays Risk Strategy Group) on his presentation at the conference. Roland is looking at this whole idea of asset or fund manager being outdated and suggesting we rather need risk managers. He has great insights and ideas and this wide ranging conversation on risk has got me thinking a lot more about a lot of things. Real learning, I love it. Simon JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

How do we get smarter? Simon Shares Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) results were great. We're seeing operational leverage coming through and a lot of projects seem to have only added a modest amount in this year with more coming in the new financial year and the memorial parks look interesting. They did have some issues with Namibia, having to relaunch the retirement development and others. Back in December / January I exited some of my position but am happy to hold the balance. Pipcoin = pyramid scam What's happened to the PIIGS? So Moody's was all nice to us, sure but are we really avoiding the ultimate downgrade to junk? Standard & Poors still the one to watch with June their next update and likely the first to make us junk. On the ETF blog this week we look at the Momentum ETF (JSE code: NFEMOM) as well as find out about total return which involves dividends being automatically reinvested into the ETF. We're doing a webcast of the lazy trading system on the 12th at 8pm and an IG Boot Camp on Tuesday at 6p

Master class in investing Simon Shares This week we look at a bond ETF, ASHINF. We're doing a webcast of the lazy trading system on the 12th at 8pm. Hlelo Giyose – First Avenue Investment Management Hlelo talks stocks but the conversation goes into much more than just some of his current preferred stocks. He delves into what makes great companies, how to spot them and when to buy them. A master class in investing. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Where to invest offshore? Simon Shares Pick n Pay (JSE code: PIK) results show the turn around is very much working albeit the stock remains very expensive. But the margins are still way to slim at 2% and less than half that of Shoprite (JSE code: SHP). This has to be the focus going forward if they have any hope of justifying the stretched valuation. MTN is getting money out of Iran, reportedly USD1billion and this certainly helps with the Nigerian fine, but once again this comes from third party sources not from the company via SENS. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) said it won’t raise its offer for French retailer Darty and this is a good thing because in a bidding war the only winner is the seller. Berkshire Hathaway is webcasting their AGM this weekend, this Saturday 30th April 2016 at 4pm. you can view it here. Kristia van Heerden looks back at a year of erratic ETF buying in our weekly ETF blog. We're doing a webcast of the lazy trading system on the 12th at 8pm. Wehmeyer Ferreira from DB X-Trackers Where t

An investment check list Simon Shares Everybody is freaking out on the Capital&Counties (JSE code: CCO) sell off, some 50% off the highs of January. Really driven by three things; it had been flying, stronger ZAR against Sterling and concerns about Brexit. Long term not an issue, so if you love the stock nows your chance to get more cheaper. Kristia van Heerden (Just One Lap CEO) tweeted some thoughts from last weeks podcast where I spoke about expectations. Her comment was that managing expectations doesn't start with investing. It's also about debt, hating on your job. These need fixing long before investing and certainly no investment will make your job better or the debt suddenly disappear. If you expect your investments to save you from your shitty job or debt or pay for things you can't afford, you're in for disappointment. — Kristia van Heerden (@kristiavh) April 18, 2016   Our ETF this week is DBXUS and it has staggering returns of 223% over five years. New videos galore; Managing volatility

Realistic expectations and success Simon Shares The rand is back where it was when then Finance Minster Nene was fired. So everybody who was lamenting that they missed their chance to get money offshore into USD, here's your second chance. The NewFunds ILBI (JSE code: NFILBI) is our focus ETF this week. Tracking inflation linked bonds it sounds perfectly boring but actually looks really interesting for a broad ETF portfolio. Expectations. What are your expectations from your trading and/or investing? Are they reasonable? Are they hurting your ability to create wealth? We Get Mail Terrance I also hold Astoria (JSE code: ARA), I bought @ R15.14- 10% of portfolio already down 6.8% but so also is the rand/dollar, I was wondering on your thoughts regarding its value and comments by Keith Mclachlan as there seems quite a bit of negativity surrounding its value and costs. I bought it for the long term 5-10 years and the purpose 2 fold to invest in other markets and rand hedge. Is this all just hear say and noise

Hating on unit trusts Simon Shares SPIVA results for South Africa are out and they track how many active managers fail to beat the index. Truth is that even over 1 year most do NOT beat the index. In short, buy passive or lose money? The PDF of the report is here. Standard & Poors has downgraded SA's expected GDP for 2016 from 1.6% to 0.8% further cementing the likelihood of a downgrade to junk from the rating agency. African Bank has relaunched, but this is not the one you have shares in. The suspended ABIL sold off good assets and is left with a giant pile of debt and those left holding ABIL when it was suspended in August 2014 hold worthless shares. The Satrix Resi (JSE code: STXRES) is our focus ETF this week. We published our bubble graphic of Top40 individual stock returns for Q1 2016. Helena Conradie CEO Satrix Satrix is best known for their Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) but have in recent years also moved into index tracking unit trusts. The question is why and if unit trusts are still the evil r

Simon Shares Capitec (JSE code; CPI) results were solid but bad debts are rising. So is their profits but the bad debts are what we're watching at this point in the process. Momentum portfolio doing as it says on the sticker. Good out performance on down days, modest or under performance on up days. But the gold volatility remains wild. ZAR X, the first new stock exchange in South Africa in over a century arrives in September. We review the Swix40 ETF for those wanting an alternative Top40. Jean Pierre Verster 36One Asset Management We last spoke to Jean Pierre in January when all was looking ugly, now everything looks all lovely, but is it? And if this is the year that shorting is as important as going long, is this the testing year for DIY investors? We also touch on inflation, commodities and the US economy. We Get Mail Ryno I was reading about hedge funds and came across Ray Dalio. He adheres to the all weather portfolio. Basically he says that its all in asset allocation. -55% bonds -30% shares -7.5%

When to sell? Simon Shares Yesterday, 23rd March, Just One lap turned five. It's been an awesome ride which we couldn't have down without the support of our users. So you everybody, thanks. A huge thank you. When to sell? Different answer depending if you are trading or investing. Great video from Anthony Clark on his top 5 small cap stocks for 2016. Divtrx ETF for those wanting dividends. We Get Mail Tebogo I was wondering if it would be advisable to liquidate part of my portfolio held in ETF and use funds to buy ETFs in my TFSA and moving forward fill up my R30k allowance before buying equities in my investment portfolio. Patrick How often should I rebalance my portfolio?   JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Lim

Simon Shares Trading in your personal capacity or using a PTY or Trust? Which is better? ETF changes. The MidCap ETF is now ASHMID and BBET40 is transferring to Core Shares from Nedbank. Seriously good interview with Jack Bogle, founder of Vanguard, the issuer of the worlds first indexing mutual fund.  Keith McLachlan Alpha Wealth small/mid cap fund manager AdvTech (JSE code: ADH) results were really good after years of frankly uninspiring results (Revenue +40%, operating profit+75% & HEPS +27%). Tertiary was especially strong, acquisitions doing very well they finally seem to have found their mojo. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Moody's did not downgrade us, but they did put us on review for a downgrade that will put us one notch above junk status. Then we'll have all three rating agencies on the same level with Standard & Poor heading the pack as we're on a negative outlook with them. Local bank results looking good with impairments improving (expect for Barclays Africa). On the surface they look cheap, but not if earnings weaken going forward, and earnings will weaken. Now Old Mutual (JSE code: OML) may split itself up and return back to South Africa. But will (can) it sell Nedbank (JSE code: NED)? We Get Mail AntonK (via Twitter) Simon, why would you call it (AB Inbev, JSE code ANB) ex growth as the two brewers together have roughly 30% global market share?. CraigNotAlan (via Twitter) Investing lump sum in ETFs in these markets, local & int - immediate or phased over time (& period)? Arin The issue I have is that I don't have any pure property ETFs or unit trusts (except for the odd property comp

Simon Shares Clover (JSE code: CLR) has "decided to withdraw from future investments in Nigeria", seems hasty? Barclays exiting Africa selling off their ABSA (JSE code: BGA) stake, more hasty decisions? Nice boring results from Metrofile (JSE code: MFL), exactly as wanted. Big seller seems to now be gone after large transactions on Monday and stock has run hard since. New tax year, you can add another R30k into your TFSA. The Momentum portfolio update, new stocks and methodology is online here. Janine Weilbach Senior Research Analyst Thebe Stock Broking Construction stocks have had a very hard time since the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. With this in mind, how does one look at a construction company in order to make investment decisions? order books seem to be popular but often misleading, large piles of cash seem great but suddenly disappear. We speak to an expert to better understand investing in local construction. We Get Mail Matt C (via twitter) Can you, or someone in the know, please explain Dow T

Simon Shares Woolies (JSE code: WHL) offering script of cash for dividend. Default is cash, I'm taking new shares. Standard Bank (JSE code: SBK) trading update looks great, HEPS some 30% higher. But what of the R1,6bn write down for lost aluminium in China the previous year? The stock initially popped 8% higher but traded red by late morning. Budget 2016, Simon's thoughts Budget is R1.46tn vs R1.45tn in the October MTBPS. Deficit R139bn, which we have to borrow and that cost is increasing as R186 government bond is 9.8% from 9.3%. Budget deficit will fall from 3.2% in the 2016/2017 year to 2.4% in 2018/2019 Capital Gains Tax (CGT) gets increased from 33.3% or marginal rate to 40% while the amount of tax free CGT every year goes from R30k to R40k. No change to Dividend Withholding Tax (DWT) or Securities Transfer Tax (STT). Lots of small tax increases and some new ones; Increased; fuel levy, bag levy, sin taxes, transfer duty on +R10m properties, etc. New; sugar tax, globe tax and tyre tax. Social gra

Simon Shares Minister Gordhan delivers his budget speech next Wednesday, what can we expect in terms of new or higher taxes? STT, DWT and CGT? Remember, remember. The end of February is end of the tax year and you have until then to fill in your R30k limit for TFSA. If you already have hit your limit new year starts on 1 March 2016. We have recommended portfolio and my picks here. Anglo America (JSE code: AGL) announced their restructuring. The big, but not unsurprising was the exiting of Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO). But how? They could just unbundle to shareholders, or try sell it. Latter will not be easy and former would put serious pressure on the KIO share price if the almost 70% AGL holds hit the market. ARB Holdings (JSE code: ARB) remains ungeared with R190,9m net cash on hand. I first discovered this company in about 2008 when they had some R300m. They've been spending it very very cautiously, too cautiously? Discovery (JSE code: DSY) update has spooked the market. We've seen this before. Latest B

Simon Shares Grindrod (JSE code: GND) just hit multi-year lows trading just above 900c with a net asset value (NAV) of over 2200c. Don't fight the trend, especially on cyclical stocks. RBA (JSE code: RBA) went bust on Tuesday. Of the three; RBA, Seakay and Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) only Calgro M3 remains. Lesson is simple. Go back five years, Calgro M3 was by far the best of the three, always buy the winners. Volatility, lots of it. Welcome to bear markets, they move fast and trading them is tough, very tough. Eugene Chemaly - Afrifocus Securities Chris asks "how does one protect cash?". Preference shares are debt instruments issued by banks and others that pay set dividends linked to the prime rate. Typically trade at discount to their cash levels and have no market makers meaning capital loss is possible. In an ideal world they would offer no gain or loss, but reality is different. New Basel 3 rules may see preference shares phased out by the issuers (via repurchase) and there is a risk that the budget

Simon Shares Where's the party? Review: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner Great Davos 2016 report back presentation with Nicky Newton-King (JSE CEO) and Bronwyn Nielsen (CNBC Africa). Next week Thursday we have another JSE Power Hour on Tax Free Savings Accounts (TFSA). Clive Butkow GroTech A Venture Capital company one can invest into and receive a tax break thanks to the SARS section 12J clause. They then invest into disruptive internet based companies with the strategy buy, build, flip. ==== JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Markets are volatile, but is the bear dead? I am buying Metrofile (JSE code: MFL). Good solid business that has solid earnings and currently on a dividend yield of just over 4%. Why is low oil causing such concerns on global markets? One would think it is good for consumers and hence good for economies? Davos 2016 report back presentation with Nicky Newton-King (JSE CEO) and Bronwyn Nielsen (CNBC Africa). MPC coming to an interest rate increase ear you. Today is likely to be the first of many, reduce debt. Jean Pierre Verster 36One Asset ManagementWhat's the big picture, world economy soft or markets just jittery? What about China and oil and how is the US and EU economies doing? We Get Mail Casey With the end of the tax year looming I want to make sure my TFSA is in good standing. Can you tell me; Is my 30k limit based on cost (the amount of money I spent buying shares throughout the year) or current share value? If I go over my annual threshold can I simply sell some shares so my balance bou

Simon Shares AB Inbev (JSE code: ANB) has arrived on the JSE as the largest stock by a mile. But I am not excited nor am I buying. The market is looking just weak, but this does not smell like 2008. How many people saying that actually were in the markets in 2008? That said more downside likely, under 40,000 on the Top40 seems certain. 35,000 anybody? Drikus Combrinck CapicraftHow much money should we have in an off-shore account? This question was posed on Twitter and we get an expert view as well as other sage advice about investing off-shore (like maybe even bring some money back into Rands?). We Get Mail Sipho The TFSA is R30k a year. Is this calendar year so I can add another R30k now inJanuary? Clayton Is DBX World (JSE code: DBXWD) and Astoria (JSE code: ARA) about as good as having money offshore? Should one monthly add more to these in these circumstances instead of buying more BBET40 and other ETF's? Gerrit Is it really necessary to have stop loss orders with regards to ETF's e.g. DBX-trac