Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Simon Shares This JSE Direct is proudly brought to you by IG, the specialists in CFD trading and a registered financial services provider.’ Alexander Forbes (JSE code: AFH) fires their CEO with zero f***s given. Nigeria making nice to MTN (JSE code: MTN) and Standard Bank (JSE code: SBK). Choppies (JSE code: CHP) snuck a late Friday SENS into the market stating that results would be late (again) and profits at least 20% lower (but no hard details as how much). No surprises that the market did not like and the stock got punished when we opened on Tuesday trading down at 25c. I never liked the stock and have repeatedly suggested investors stay away. Capitec* (JSE code: CPI) results were once again stellar with HEPS +20% and cost-to-income at 38%. The cost-to-income is edging higher, as expected, and was 36% last year. Likely will settle in the mid 40s. Active clients is now 10.5million. Top Broker awards were held on Tuesday evening. In the main category the winner was Standard Bank followed by Rand Swiss and

Simon Shares CPI 4.9% vs 5.2%, rates on hold? Naspers (JSE code: NPN) unbundling Multichoice. About R5.5billion profit so market cap some R55billion on 10x PE. That puts them into the Top40. The theory that Multichoice is dead is very misplaced. Aspen (JSE code: APN) gives another update to the market trying to help investors make sense of their results, and the stock is off +9% at just over R170. JSE is looking for feedback "In response to a range of corporate scandals, speculation and innuendo that have characterised South African financial markets over the past year". Details here  Cash Club: Start where you are Upcoming events 11 October ~ JSE Power Hour: Investing in listed property  Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Managing fallen angels Those once unstoppable high flying stocks that have come back to earth with a thud, now what? We have a lot in our market right now; Aspen (JSE code: APN), Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH), MTN (JSE code: MTN), EOH (JSE code: EOH) and many

Simon Shares Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) results were a mixed bag with the reduced dividend expected but they are essentially going to almost halve the cover ratio over two years and that is more aggressive than expected. Growth was modest, but the results commentary was even ore modest. Two analysts I know spoke to management and both came away very confident of the stock and its prospects. A lot of talk is about the move to digital and the cloud and firstly Metrofile is well positioned there and secondly I have been hearing about paperless office for over 30 years. ADvTech* (JSE code: ADH) purchase of Monash University looks great but expensive. On a PE of around 39x that is chunky. However will be able to remove a fair bit of costs plugging central services into existing infrastructure the company has. It also gives them degree levels offerings which is a great step and so while not cheap I like the deal. * I hold ungeared positions. Practical trading setups and rules with Petri Redelinghuys Understandin

Simon Shares MTN (JSE code: MTN). Woe is MTN, another $2billion for tax evasion. Is it a shake down? Maybe, maybe not. Truthfully we have no idea and it does cover the same period (2007-2015) of their previous Nigerian fine. I long ago sold my MTN shares and no interest in buying more. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) ex directors Jooste and La Grange have now both appeared before parliament and both blame everybody but themselves. Nice break out last week on the Top40, and then the retest and now we're back inside the range of 49-52k trading at 51,000 with ZAR at 15.46. Sure some if this is general EM issues but GDP data from Tuesday showing us in a recession is weighting heavy on markets. Where to next? Well let's see if 49k holds. Lots of talk about another drought locally in 2019, experts saying about 60% chance. Going to be rough, especially on food producer stocks (growing and makers). Practical trading setups and rules Tax Tuesday: Medical aid tax deductions OUTstanding money: The inflation monster Upcoming

The SAFcoin saga continues (my initial stay story here and the follow up with legal threats here), I hope this will be the last. Neil Ferreira finally offered to answer my concerns and I sent him a list of 43 questions Sunday afternoon and he returned them on Wednesday, you can find the questions and answers here. The tl;dr version; While SAFcoin did answer a lot of my questions and clear up some issues the key issues remain. So I continue to warn people to stay away. PTXTEN, been a rough, very rough, period for this ETF. Upcoming events 30 August ~ JSE Power Hour: Practical trading setups and rules 06 September ~ JSE Power Hour: Structuring your investment portfolio Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this

Simon Shares Safcoin finally responded to my caution around their ‘coin’ with a lawyer’s letter. You can read our response and see the letter here. One possible correction is the source of the coins. I stated that Neil Ferreira had created them via cryptocoincreator.com and he Tweeted me a link to Etherscan.io for Safcoin. Not sure if that means it wasn’t created by cryptocoincreator.com but the new information does suggest there are NOT 222billion coins in supply. The Etherscan.io link shows 10million coins total supply rather than the 5million the website has been promoting, but I see Neil Ferreira updated his white paper on the day of my initial podcast to reflect this new 10million coins in supply (as well as a number of other changes to the white paper). @SimonPB Here is a link for further assurance that we are deploying all token transactions to the Ethereum block and by the time of launch all token purchases will correspond to the token tracker https://t.co/Kg2mRKFOYz— SAFCOIN (@SAFCOIN1) August 3,

Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Simon Shares ZAR almost 15.50 early Monday morning on Lira rout. Improve to around 14.10 but now back at 14.60. Chart of the Top40 shows our market been moving sideways since February between 49,000 and 52,000. fairly small range that has made ALSI futures trend trading hard, very hard. [caption id="attachment_8270" align="aligncenter" width="1080"] Top40 going nowhere for last six months[/caption]Tencent (Hong Kong code: 0700) results saw revenue growing ahead of expectations up 39% but profit only up 25% (YoY figures for half year) and Naspers (JSE code: NPN) is off 6.5% (after being down some 10%) and Top40 -2.7%.  Esor (JSE code: ESR) goes into business rescue, so now we have two construction stocks in business rescue (Basil Read the other) with some looking very vulnerable and a number of others already gone. This sector remains a horror story. Pembury (JSE code: PEM) finally issue a trading update, months late, and it is a horror show. S

Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Simon Shares Fidelity in the US is no offering two of its index funds at zero fee. They do this partly perhaps as a loss leader but also they can generate revenue via script lending. I think we'll see negative fee funds (they'll pay you to hold) in time and even locally in South Africa zero fee funds are possible in time. Local July tractor sales came in at 525 units vs. 508 in July 2017. MTN (JSE code: MTN) results looked bleak. Even if you add all the 'one off issues' back into HEPS it's only 280c. As Ian Stiglingh pointed out on Twitter, we knew it would be a large miss as expectations (consensus) was for a large increase in HEPS and anything above 20% requires a trading update. So no update meant a miss. Apple (NYSE code: AAPL) is now worth $1trillion having listed in 1980 with a $1billion valuation and since then done almost 20% a year annualised return excluding dividends. On a PE of some 18x it is not even expensive compared to others suc

Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Simon Shares Jacques Magliolo and Business Consultants International (BCI). Two people have recently emailed me about this gent and his company specifically about the FSB warning against him and the company in September 2017. One emailer has already lost money the other wanted to know if he should worry about this as he wanted to invest money. Simple answer is always do a Google search before invest and if you find a FSB (or FSCA as they're now called), be very worried and run away.  Last week I warned to stay away from Safcoin and offered them the right to reply. I have heard nothing back from them so I assume they happy with what I said? Further Twitter has dug up a lot more making the whole Safcoin even more dodge. Lots of panic about the Tuesday evening statement from President Ramaphosa regarding land restitution without compensation. My advice (and this always holds true). Before checking the screaming Twitter and media headlines read the

Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Simon Shares Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) almost 400c then under 200c. If you're in SNH understand you are trading it, this is not a recovery story. Nothing wrong with trading but rule 1 is stop loss and rule 2 is profit. Don't forget either. Blue Label (JSE code: BLU) back below 900c. I have no idea what the story is here regarding the collapsed share price and neither does anybody I speak to. Results due late August and a trading update in the next week or two. Best is to wait for clarity from the results. Kumba (JSE code: KIO) results show what happens when everything comes together for a single commodity stock - cash flow galore and dividends. They're paying 1451c for the first six months. Sabvest N (JSE code: SVN) is doing a book build for two of their larger investors who want to exit. They are a holding company and the price is a discount to net asset value (NAV) of about 36% when a typical discount would be 15%-20%. This book build should i

Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Simon Shares I was at the Mandela Lecture on Tuesday at which Barack Obama spoke. A special day. A truly talented orator and a speech well worth watching. Famous Brands* (JSE code: FBR) CFO quits. Now directors are always quitting, but the CFO when you have indigestion from a over priced UK burger? JSE (JSE code: JSE) trading update is strong. HEPS to be 30%-40% higher. In part thanks to a tax credit, retrenchments from last year kicking in the savings but also they say increased revenue. Rand slowly moving stronger. According to the big mac index, it should be R5.63/US$!  A listener asked abut Group 5 (JSE code: GRF). A nasty chart and this after a R1.6bn offer by Greenbay (JSE code: GRP) for their European Toll assets they now have a market cap of some R120million. This suggests the rest of the group is totally bankrupt, which it may be and while it appears to offer great value, this is a globally tough sector I continue to stay well away fro

Download the audio file here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes Simon Shares JSE Direct is ten years old. Started 8 July 2008 on Classic FM. Aton out smartens Aveng (JSE code: AEG) and Murray and Roberts (JSE code: MUR) with a 25.4% in Aveng that can effectively block any special resolutions such as a take over. Alternative if the deal between MUR and AEG goes ahead, Aton will get MUR shares as a AEG shareholder which should ensure they end up with 50% +1 and in complete control at MUR. Torre (JSE code: TOR) is maybe delisting. There will be a shareholder vote and if it passes you'll either get the money or remain a shareholder but in an unlisted company. The later is a horrid idea as liquidity and price discovery is typically zero. I Also think we'll likely see more small cap stocks delisting. What can you do? Vote. There will be a vote by shareholders and you have every right to vote against it and as a delisting requires a special resolution 75% +1 is th

Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Simon Shares Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) results = nasty. Aveng (JSE code: AEG) get their money and price falls to 9c. Top40 vs. Rafi. The most tax efficient entities Upcoming events; Investing in BEE Inside the robo advisor Robo advisors are all the rage these days but I wanted to know what's inside the robo so I sat down with Grant Locke, head of OutVest for a geeky understanding about how it all works. SE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited

Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes. Simon Shares Markets have been falling, and the world has not been ending. Long4Life* (JSE code: L4L) has announced a purchase of Rage for R3.915billion with EBITDA of R360million. That's expensive and as they're issuing new shares for much of the payment also a chunky dilution. Management say the deal is not yet a done deal. Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) results are due on Friday. They may not arrive and if they do they're going to create all sorts of excitement. But don't get sucked in, SNH remains a trading stock and nothing more. Reports I am hearing from VBE is that they consider the company bankrupt, and that's before the billions VBE hope to secure for shareholders. The Tekkie Town sellers continue their fight with Steinhoff Retail Africa (JSE code: SRR) and it's messy and it also suggests that maybe Markus Jooste wasn't the only problem at Steinhoff? BusinessDay is reporting that Christo Wiese has sold another chunk of his Shoprite* (JSE co

Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes. Simon Shares Basil Read (JSE code: BSR) has filed for business rescue and nobody should be surprised. Blaming government and labour is also weak, construction is a weak industry and only really boomed in the lead up to the world cup in 2010 (not forgetting the price fixing). Of concern was that the stock was not suspended until Monday lunch time and it turns out it a settlement issue. Apparently "Someone bought BSR at 1c in on Friday now it turns out the seller does not have the stock. JSE trying to reverse." Liberty (JSE code: LBH) got hacked. Exact details are scarce as I record, the company is saying it was "largely emails and possible attachments" and that no clients have lost money. Well maybe not yet. But you email all sorts of personally stuff to a long-term insurer; bank details, residential address, medical, etc. That frankly puts clients at risk. Bigger picture is that our future unfortunately includes us being hacked sooner or later.

Simon Shares Stor-age (JSE code: SSS) results were totally solid and in a very niche property space that is doing very well. When they listed a few people recommended them to me and I wasn't convinced. Well I was wrong. Sasol* (JSE code: SOL) was one of the first stocks I ever bought and my longest holding in my 'til death do us part' portfolio having first bought it around 1994. A few years ago I gave serious thought to exiting, but held on albeit deciding not to add any more to my portfolio. But I have been thinking and digging and frankly it is a change company and looking good. The Lake Charles project has been a mess in terms of cost over runs, but it is now nearing completion and that means two important points. Firstly, no more spend on the development and secondly in a few years the profits will start to flow from the project (even if they're not as great as promised). So I am starting to buy again, however my usual pricing methodology doesn't work here for two reasons. Massively cyclical always break

123 Download the audio file here Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. Simon Shares Wildest story of the year. Imbalie (JSE code: ILE) is ditching beauty to become a miner via a reverse listing! Local GDP for Q1 2018 was a shocker at -2.2%. Expected was -0.5% and the number is usually shifted higher over time, but wowzer. That all said, this was mostly driven by agriculture and frankly turning a country around is a slow process. Delta Properties (JSE code: DLT) has me perplexed. On a dividend yield of around 15% and trading at around 30% discount to net asset value (NAV) it seems a screaming buy - but that assumes the market is wrong and I never want to be the one telling the market that. They mostly have government as a tenant and a lot of their leases are on a month-to-month basis. But government isn't going to suddenly move out but they may put pressure on rent increases. The company says there is a process recently put in place

Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. OUTstanding money: Saving and investing are not the same How to be financially independent with Patrick McKay Finding dividend superstars Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: How to identify quality stocks How to choose a stock broker First off understand the difference between a stock broker and an FSP. The former is an exchange member and gets protection and regulations from the exchange. An FSP is regulated by the FSCA (formerly the FSB) interview with Charles Savage on how this works.  It is very important that they are registered with a regulatory body. Even an offshore regulatory body is fine, but only if it is in a country in which you trust the laws. Avoid fly-by-nights registered in some second rate dodge country. Also understand potential fees. Brokerage. What you pay when you transact, also check if there is a minimum brokerage rate. Admin fee charged monthly, quarterly or annually

Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes. Simon Shares I am traveling again this week so recording on Monday. Consolidated Infrastructure Group (JSE code: CIL) seems to have a life line albeit existing shareholders will be diluted by some 50%. With the issue at 400c and the share below that price no need to follow your rights, just buy in the open market if you want. Upcoming events; JSE Power Hour: How to profit from SA mining JSE Power Hour: How to identify quality stocks Make trading asymmetrical I have spoken often before about how one of the huge benefits of investing is that a diversified portfolio is asymmetrical. You may have held some horrid share and lost 100% of its value. But 100% is the most you can lose and your winners can exceed 100%. In fact a true long-term portfolio will most definitely have many +100% winners so if you do get caught in a 100% loser - you're fine. The important point is that you need to be diverse and have more than one share and ideally a core o

Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes. Would you buy it again? Would you buy that share today if you didn't already own it? If not, why not? I'm talking about those dog shares again because we all have them. This week I pose a simple question to solve the problem. Sometimes tech fails. This was one of those weeks, so a short show. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.