Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Simon Shares The Top40 is up almost 20% since the lows of November and over 12% year-to-date. But instead it feels all gloom and doom. Wescoal (JSE code: WSL) results look horrid, but they had strike issues when they employed a new contractor and that hit production and the leverage impact seriously hit HEPS. But they remain a high quality junior coal miner. Omnia (JSE code: OMN) results were ugly, but not as ugly as the market expected. Apparently during the results presentation they blamed the media for their 23 April SENS stating no rights issue, which they then changed their mind on earlier this month? Gold is running and the perma gold bulls are thrilled - albeit surprisingly quiet? However, a number of people are asking if they should buy gold and the answer is usually no, buy a gold miner and benefit from the leverage impact. Bitcoin* is also going wild, now above $12,000. Here the perma BTC bulls are all over my time line. Question is how high will it go? Answer is no idea, in a perfect world it need

Simon Shares Old Mutual (JSE code: OMU) has fired suspended CEO Peter Moyo and detailed what went wrong. The short version is that the company Moyo founded (NMT group), was CEO of and chair since taking up CEO at Old Mutual paid two dividends when they should in the first instance paid Old Mutual as a preference shareholder a dividend and in the second instance they paid when they should have first paid off the preference shareholder - Old Mutual. Moyo has fired back with a lawyers letter stating that Old Mutual is wrong and in fact their representative on the board voted in favour of both dividends. Who's right? I have no idea and ultimately the courts will decide, or more likely the parties will settle. So for now it is about money and how much Moyo gets. The good news for Old Mutual shareholders is that this is not an operational issue, but they do now need a new CEO. Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) have restructured their debt that cost two CFOs their jobs. The new debt will see the tax rate revert back to th

Simon Shares Solid Stor-Age (JSE code: SSS) results from a stock I have largely ignored and been wrong about. Interesting TymeBank presentation from African Rainbow Capital (JSE code: AIL).  Lonmin (JSE code: LON) is gone, taken over by Sibanye Gold (JSE code: SGL). Lonmin has a consolidation adjusted all time high of over R33,000, exiting at 1480c. They also had a US$10billion offer in August 2008 that they rejected. Market cap now, R4billion or about US$265million. Unpacking the Satrix property ETF ~ STXPRO Retire: Playing catch-up Upcoming events; 20 June ~ JSE Power Hour: Trade the trade wars 18 July ~ JSE Power Hour: How to invest offshore with the JSE Suspended Tongaat (JSE code: TON) suspended. Choppies (JSE code: CHP) suspended. Group5 (JSE code: GRF) suspended. Rockwell Diamonds (JSE code: RDI) suspended. Basil Read (JSE code: BSR) suspended. Esor (JSE code: ESR) suspended. Firestone Energy (JSE code: FSE) suspended. Freedom Property Fund (JSE code: FDP) suspended. I'll stop there because you

Simon Shares US Fed has now promised a rate cut. This boomed markets but under lying the statement is the acceptance that trade wars are hurting the US economy. Horror Q1 GDP number at -3.2%. We knew it would be bad, thanks to aggressive load shedding during the period. But nobody expected this bad. The good news (sorta) is that no load shedding in Q2 should help boost that number. Also Agriculture was down 13.2% and is lumpy and should bounce back helping. But GDP for the year is going to struggle to get above 1%, and we're now almost certain to get a rate cut next month when the MPC meets. ANC / Ace wants "quantity easing". Assuming he means quantitive easing, I still don't understand what the plan is? So we print extra money to boost inflation (not that our inflation is low enough to be a problem) and then I suppose we use that money to buy local government debt, maybe Eskom debt. Then what? Do the lights now magically stay on? Also if we look at QE in the US, who benefitted the most? The rich, not the po

Simon Shares Rough month. We're ending May (well Wednesday mid morning, so 2.5 trading days still to go) up 3.5% for the year, but we started May up 11.8%. No don't quote me rhymes. Astral Foods (JSE code: ARL) issued a SENS detailing issues with municipal water and the cost to the group. They've also spoken about issues with electricity supply. The question is, are they the only ones being impacted? The answer must be no, but they are the only ones being very vocal about the issues. I wonder who else is experiencing same? Famous Bands* (JSE code: FBR) results are decent if you remove the UK indigestion. The second half was tougher than the first but really that UK deal is busy undoing a lot of otherwise great effort by the company, that said the second half was better (and still better post yearend) for GBK but it still losses money. Signature brands are struggling and this isn't a huge surprise as they're more expensive sit down experiences. They're also exiting the Coega Concentrate tomato paste plant, I

Simon Says Upcoming events; 23 May ~ JSE Power Hour: Mastering stop losses with Trader Petri 30 May ~ JSE Power hour: Hard question. Better Answers 20 June ~ JSE Power Hour: Trade the trade wars Coronation* (JSE code; CML) results about as expected and it looks like they're already moving up off the bottom of the down trend. I hold and like. People asking if passive doesn't kill Coronation and the answer is no. We're a very long way from passive being larger than active in South Africa, and even when that happens the real threat is initially the smaller asset managers. In time small active will be the winner, but we're talking a long time into the future. A few people asked me why I don't like Balwin (JSE code: BWN) and Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR). They great operations but they sell houses and right now the housing market is depressed (or distressed, your pick). Costs are not going down but prices are also not holding so a squeeze. Calgro M3 has an advantage in that they can build at vastly different price

Simon Shares Long4Life* (JSE code: L4L) results. Good and lots of cash to spend. Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) results. Horror show. Upcoming events; 23 May ~ JSE Power Hour: Mastering stop losses with Trader Petri 30 May ~ JSE Power hour: Hard question. Better Answers  * I hold ungeared positions. Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Trade wars Can we call it? Trades wars are here and nobody wins. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) results for September 2017 are out and they're a mess. All they really have is a c70% stake in Pepkor. Trade wars have again spooked the market with the orange trumpet going on a Twitter rampage on Sunday, but as I record US markets are green again. Upcoming events; 23 May ~ JSE Power Hour: Mastering stop losses with Trader Petri Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Elections and markets Recording this on Wednesday afternoon, so voting is still on-going and I have no idea what the results will be. But some thoughts. As a country fairly new to democracy we're really good at it and this is something to be very proud of, many countries (including supposed developed ones) are not nearly as good at democracy as we are. The IEC is world class and we accept the results. The majority party loses provinces, metros and the world doesn't end, we all just carry on. Sure there will be some messes in some places, but pretty much our voting is reflectiv

Simon Shares By this time net week we'll know the results of the 2019 elections. It's been a quieter election season than I'd expected - which is great. Coronation* (JSE code: CML) update. Assets under management (AUM) flat and spot on what I expected but average AUM was 8% lower for the period. HEPS 20%-30% lower worse than the 15%-20% down I expected on the back of average AUM being 8% lower even though it was flat start to finish. I hold and am happy with some cheeky bids in lower if anybody wants to sell to me at discount? I have been buying some Barloworld* (JSE code: BAW) in this pull back as per my Graham value webcast from a few weeks ago after missing my initial entry when it ran to +R130. Still have some bids in lower down. Up coming events; * I hold ungeared positions. Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Shares or cash for dividends? A great question in my inbox, why do some companies issues shares instead of cash for dividends and which should we take? The why is sim

Simon Shares So Christo Wiese wants to sell his non economic but voting Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) shares back to the company for some R3.6billion? I thinks not, albeit seems I am in a minority here. Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) has made a non-binding offer to buy a Universal Coal (an Australian company mining in SA). The deal is about half their market cap and at a price some 10% better than the next best offer that I knew about. They really are the masters of deals, paying a good price and making them work. But this one is a biggie and risks are much higher than the other smaller deals the've done. The latest SPIVA for South Africa is out and always it makes for bleak reading.  * I hold ungeared positions. Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Unlisted shares Unlisted shares, those not listed and trading on a recognised exchange such as the JSE. There two ways we get unlisted shares; We buy them hoping they will eventually list and become the next Uber (albeit Uber may be a bad examp

Simon Shares The Power Hour from last week by Nerina Visser on ETF fees is awesome and online. What's the net asset value? Net asset value (NAV) is from the balance sheet and is asset less liabilities. The break up value of the company. A share will typically trade above this value as we're buying future profits, not break up value. Tangible NAV (TNAV) is better as this excludes things such as goodwill, so is a real number of actual assets. Goodwill is when you buy a business and pay more than the NAV for the business, rest is goodwill. When things are going well and booming goodwill is not an issue. But when things turn, well it is messy and we've seen lots of goodwill write downs in years past. EOH (JSE code: EOH) states NAV of some R4.5billion. But R3.3billion is goodwill and so not really an asset and with EOH struggling for goodwill right now not really anything to write home about. So TNAV of some R1.1billion meaning EOH trading at more than double NAV while AdaptIT (JSE code: ADI) is trading below

Simon Shares A strong start to the year and so far it seems to be continuing (even as the Rand trdes belw R14) - long may it last. Important to remember that Rand strength is not always the end of the world for our market as it signals foreign buying. S&P500 ETFs. Up coming events; 11 April ~ JSE Power Hour: Know your fees with Nerina Visser Fear and loathing on the JSE We're seeing a new trend on the JSE whereby stock prices are slaughtered after poor (or even just modest) results. Sure bad results have always hurt a share price, but it used to be that a 10% down day was a wildly bad day. Now however 10% is hardly even warming up with many stocks being hit way harder (think 30% down on Aspen results). I think there are a bunch reasons for this new trend. Firstly; the Steinhoff (JSE code: SNH) fear. After Steinhoff there is real fear in the market. Fear that a 'great' company may actually be smoke and mirrors and investors have no idea which is the next Steinhoff. So rather then be caught out they j

Simon Shares Up coming events; 11 April ~ JSE Power Hour: Know your fees with Nerina Visser Selling like a pro We tend to focus on the buying, enteries and selling at profit. But what of selling at a loss? Far to often i hear people state it has fallen too much and so there's no point in selling - this is false. Ignore the loss you already have and focus on the loss ahead of you. A stock that has fallen 90 can fall another 90% and when people ask where's the bottom? The answer is zero, until then it can always fall more. A good sell is as good as a good entry. I exited most of my Calgro M3 (JSE code: CGR) at around 2100c but kept some only to watch it fall to under 1000c. I then finally sold the balance and now it's under 600c. It is never too late to sell and we need to become as good at selling as we are at buying. Sell the dogs (sorry dogs) Know when to panic Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSEDirect is an indepe

Simon Shares No Brexit deal with 8 days to go. A mess of epic proportions. Load shedding is in full force (well only force 4 with more stages to go) and it's bad. Seems we can expect a 'stable' electrical grid sometime towards the end of the year, albeit stable may still include stage 1 load shedding according to experts I have spoken to. The reasons we know and frankly don't matter. It also doesn't matter who wins on 8 May, this is not a problem that goes away over night. For us individually it s a hassle, a real hassle. For business it is a major issue. Our expected modest GDP growth for 2019 is going to be even more modest while Moodys eyes us for junk status. Most exposed will be retail (extra costs) and property(lost sales and extra costs) while mining has largely managed to get off grid. Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) results were a horror show with the tax rate hitting 40%, up from 24%. Seems the two now fired CFOs messed up the Kenyan deal so that interest was not deductible as an expense. They out, new

Simon Shares Group5 (JSE code: GRF) goes into business rescue with "a slim chance for any realisation of value.". It seems the construction of a power station in Ghana was the final nail. Remember the +R1billion they were offered to their Eastern European toll operations? But in the end a lack of liquidity killed them. Be very careful of holding Aveng (JSE code: AEG), if nothing else check the bid/offer, price is heading to 1c. No Brexit deal with 15 days to go. A mess of epic proportions. Back in November 2017 I wrote in FinWeek that we'd get zero fee ETFs and eventually negative fee ETFs (they'll pay you to hold them). It has happened. MoneyWeb is reporting on a US ETF offering to pay investors to buy their ETF. Locally our much smaller market and hence much smaller ETFs means we're a long way from free, but I do think in time it'll happen locally and Satrix40* (JSE CODE: STX40) would probably the one able to do it. Aspen (JSE code: APN) taught us some important important lessons. Debt is fine until it's n

Simon Shares Greenest start to a year since the 1960's, Top40 is 6.9% up year-to-date. MultiChoice (JSE code: MCG) has unbundled out of Naspers (JSE code: NPN) with MultiChoice closing at R106 and Naspers off R125 on the back of Tencent weakness over night in Hong Kong. So no value unlock and with fair values for MutliChoice being between 8500c - R150. Most people I speak to say at current prices if you received MultiChoice shares you should hold them at this price. Also MultiChoice will remain in the Top40 index with Truworths (JSE code: TRU) exits Top40 Friday morning. Those saying MultiChoice is dead, well maybe in time. But nothing is that linear and be careful of taking a dislike for DStv pricing out on the share - they're different beasts. They could get bought by a telco (we're seeing that in the US), they could get the subscriber growth they're targeting in the rest of Africa, Showmax could take off of they could muddle along or they could go broke. Lots of options. Below are the index changes effec

Making the CSEW40 SMART The CoreShares Equal Weight Top40 ETF (JSE code: CSEW40) has long been a favourite of mine, but now CoreShares want to change the ETF to a multi factor ETF under the code SMART. Those factors are; Value (portfolios of cheap shares outperform portfolios of expensive shares) Momentum (portfolios of recent share winners continue to win in the near term) Size (portfolios of small companies outperform portfolios of large companies) e.g. Equal weight Quality (portfolios high quality shares outperform poor quality shares) Low Volatility (portfolios of low risk shares outperform high risk shares) I chatted to Chris Rule of CoreShares asking why the changes? What will the new methodology be and what's its attraction? Lastly how will the process work - including voting by existing holders of the ETF. I initially was too thrilled with the changes as I like the equal weight methodology. But one of the key points for me is how many stocks I effectively get exposure to and this is illustrated by t

Simon Shares Eskom is "technically insolvent" and load shedding is back, why are we surprised? This was promised us when we had some in December. Bottom line it's a mess, costly to the economy and fixing Eskom is critical and very difficult. Watch the budget next week. EOH woes continue as the stock lost over 20% on Tuesday on the news that Microsoft had cancelled their partnership agreement. In a late SENS the company stated the revenue was not material, but investors have three questions they're asking themselves. 1// Can we trust EOH management ?? 2// How do you get a Microsoft partnership agreement cancelled ?? 3// Why is EOH management always so slow on shareholder communications ?? Curro (JSE code: COH) results are not bad, albeit HEPS +23% with a PE of some 40x is light and the stock is expensive. We are starting to see operational leverage as revenue is +19% and HEPS +23% and a 12c dividend. However debt has jumped almost 20%, but still manageable. Learner numbers increased 12% while Meridian has hal

Simon Shares A green January with financials the winners but 2019 is going to be a wild ride, especially in the lead up to the elections expected in May. Tax-free year end is end February, don't leave it for the last minute if you want money in this tax year ending 28 February. Budget on 20 February we'll see if we get any changes to the annual limits. Clover (JSE code: CLR) is delisting at 2500c. A great price considering it was around 1500c last year. I held this stock for a number fo years as I considered it to have great promise, but it never delivered on that promised so I exited. I have had some questions around two stocks I own, Santova* (JSE code: SNV) and Metro File (JSE code: MFL). Both are under share price pressure and both finding growth hard (latest results were OK, nothing special). The share price decline is a factor of liquidity and small stock sentiment. Right now if I was two sell my holdings in each the share price would fall about 10%, that is not normal. Add to that some large sellers (

Simon Shares Retailers, woe is worrid. Aside from Foschini (JSE code; TFG) and Lewis (JSE code: LEW) they have ranged from horrid to truly astoundingly horrid. Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) has also put out a trading update to follow on from the so-so sales update and aside from some internal issues and Angolan hyperinflation the margins are also crumbling. EOH caught in a SENS from Eskom late on Monday, but took them until Wednesday morning to respond - simple too slow as the stock fell almost 15% on Tuesday. Ellies (JSE code: ELI) was a stock I was watching after they made almost 8c HEPS in the year ending April 2018. But now it seems they swung into a loss for the six months ending October and have a board that is falling apart. Taste (JSE code: TAS) announce they need some R580million and +5 years to at best reach break even? Minimalism: Can you eat it? The perks of being exactly average. Upcoming events Tax-free investing review, who ate the returns? * I hold ungeared positions. Where's Safcoin? So Safc