Jsedirect With Simon Brown

Yield focused ETF from CoreShares CoreShares has merged their PTXSPY EF into PTXTEN and now converted it into a new CSPROP. CSPROP is a new property ETF that has yield as 75% of the weighting adding both diversity and yield to the ETF. Simon chats to Chris Rule about the new ETF, why the changes and the details. Find more here. Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Up coming events; 31 October ~ Live Fat Wallet Show recording 7 November ~ Millennials navigating markets and the investment landscape JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.  

Simon Shares Crowd1 ~ I been digging into it. Scam, a multi level marketing gimmick with no actual product apart from getting other friends, family and fools involved. Ascendis Health (JSE code: ASC) trading updates illustrates the risks of relying too much on net asset value (NAV). They are writing down R4.2billion of "goodwill, intangible assets and property, plant and equipment". In other words everything. But the company has a market cap of only R2.2billion and that R4.2billion equates to some 850c per share totally destroying the reported NAV of 1435c. Calgo M3 (JSE code: CGR) and Balwin (JSE code: BWN) results were both under pressure form a stretched consumer with Balwin having less issues and producing the better results and profits. Both are well positioned for when the economy improves with Balwin in the slightly higher LSM market and Calgo with their burial operations. I sold Calgo a way back and would look to be buying one or both, but not just yet. Buying property requires confidence so they wil

Simon Shares A late and short show this week, discussing the chart below showing return so far for 2019 (to close 17 October 2019). Surprisingly, all positive and some real good returns. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.  

Simon Shares #WhatsAppStokvel This is a scam, of course it is. You're only asking because you know it is and you're hoping somebody will give you 'permission' to go ahead anyway. Anything that requires you to recruit others in order for you to profit is always 100% a scam. Long4Life* (JSE code: L4L) upping their stake in Spur (JSE code: SUR) to over 10%. Is it a pure valuation play or does Joffe have something bigger in mind? Brexit, tic toc. Three weeks to go. Clicks (JSE code: CLS) issued an improved and updated trading update that sent the share to new all-time highs. One can argue about valuations here, but not the quality. Clicks is best of breed. 4Sight (JSE code: 4SI) was a stock i warned against since day one. Far too much jargon and hype that have not turned into profits. But go read the resignation letter of Geoffrey Carter from 7 October. Man is he maximum unhappy. I am doing an ALMI trading demonstration webcast on 28 October at 8.15am Book here. Will Trump juice the markets? A few people pointed

Up coming events; 10 October ~ Is it time to buy listed property? 31 October ~ Live Fat Wallet Show recording 10x South African Retirement Reality Report 2019 Simon chats with 10x Investments founder and CEO about their second Retirement Reality Report and a 1million give away into a retirement annuity. You can find the full report here. Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with, nor has it been authorised, or otherwise approved by JSE Limited. The views expressed in this programme are solely those of the presenter, and do not necessarily reflect the views of JSE Limited.

Simon Shares Blue Label (JSE code: BLU) shares flying after writing down CellC to zero. Up some 30%. I guess the market is relived CellC is only going to zero. WeWork gets a new CEO as founder Adam Neumann steps aside. Makes sense, aside from a lot of crazed decisions he's made. Founders are a different type of person from a CEO. The new top end iPhone is on sale for pre-order locally. At almost R33k, yip a full years tax-free. Even if buying on contract, that's an insane amount fo money for a phone that doesn't even make coffee. Peter Moyo again refused entry to work at Old Mutual (JSE code: OMU). This is beyond messy. Banking strike, with way more horror stories than actual facts. Facts are the union is not happy about retrenchments. But the many many messages I have received about cash running out and online banking not working I suspect are bogus. I suspect I am one of the few left who still use cash anyway? JUUL CEO Kevin Burns has just announced he is quitting. Wealthy Maths: Calculating dividends Up c

Simon Shares Local inflation came in at 4.3% in August from previous of 4.0%. This a little higher than expected with food one of the main drivers. Maybe we're finally seeing food inflation that will help the retailers. MPC rate announcement on Thursday, 20 out of 25 economists say no change. If they'e right then I think a November cut is certain. Prosus (JSE code: PRX) remains in the Top40 and Indi25 indices that it went into when spun out of Naspers (JSE code: NPN). I haven't been able to confirm weightings but the big question is does the two of them exceed what Naspers was weighted? For capped indices this gets real messy, say Naspers was capped at 10%, it'll still be 10%, but will now also include Prosus. Flavoured vaping, flavoured cigarettes next? Two states and President Trump are hitting out against flavoured vaping with a ban the likely outcome. I have spoken about this before, the tobacco industry went full tilt into vaping as a new gateway into getting new smokers and it's working. Except now reg

Simon Shares Hello Prosus (JSE code: PRX). Spun out of Nasper (JSE code: NPN) and trading on JSE and Amsterdam Euronext. I expect Prosus to be the better deal as Amsterdam is a larger market for those wanting access to Tencent and the other assets. And the local fun damager saying that Prosus will do well as local fun damagers don't understand tech should hang his head in shame. The issue was simple weighting, one couldn't have Naspers at full weight in a fund, never mind over weight. So they had to decide how under weight they wanted to be and as such a large discount happened. As I record value unlock is some 3% with Prosus at R1,204 and Napsers off R1,100 adding R104 of value. Bottom line for me is that I expect Prosus to be the better asset due to the Amsterdam listing. And the awkward moment was the JSE not reflecting the indices right as they hadn't included Prosus in the indices that Naspers was in. So everything looked real ugly for a while. They fixed it. For next day or two Prosus will live in sam

Simon Shares Local Q2 GDP came in at 3.1%, higher then expected but what struck me was the comment from Stats SA ~ "spurred on by a build-up of inventories and increased household expenditure". Now we have seen Woolies* (JSE code: WHL) and Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) both comment that the second half to end June was stronger than the first, and this statement would suggest it was the second quarter. But who are these people? Or is it maybe base effect? An Eskom briefing on Wednesday seems to show that the utility has been stabilised with issues such as not enough coal largely fixed. But important point is stabilised, not yet improving. A start I suppose. Group5 (JSE code: GRF) is leaving the JSE as it exits business rescue. Shareholders can expect to get zero back. This is the risk of investing, we get the upside, but if it goes wrong we can lose it all. Discovery* (JSE code: DSY) results were pretty much in line with the first half and they continue to spend a lot of the new businesses. Price is, as always, s

Simon Shares An economic proposal out of National Treasury. Good looking document, but as always implementation is what matters. Adrian Gore, CEO of Discovery* writes a great piece for the World Economic Forum "Things are bad and getting worse for South Africa. Or are they?". Full of actual facts rather than emotions that typically cloud the debate. Naspers (JSE code: NPN) shareholders have agreed to the Prosus unbundling and it will be effective at the open on 11 September. I expect Prosus to trade around R950 and it we do see some value unlock, and I expect that we will, this could add some 4% to the Top40. Not on the day but over the week or so of the unbundling. Exxero (JSE code: EXX) results had a special dividend and growing profits. But what strikes me is a PE of 4x? The market is pricing it as if coal as an energy source will be dead within 4 years? Wealthy Maths: How to calculate future value Managed volatility ETFs explained Upcoming events; 05 September ~JSE Power Hour: Benefits of offshore inves

Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) results a show of many parts. Locally second half much better after the disaster of the first half. Rest of Africa swings into a R265million loss after making R1.6billion in 2016 FY. Dischem (JSE code: DCP) below 2000c. Was always way over valued but still on a PE of over 20x so not yet cheap. AdvTech* (JSE code: ADH) decent trading update. Lots of moving parts, but stripping that all out leaves HEPS +5% - +9% up and on a PE of under 15x much cheaper than Curro (JSE code: COH) and Curro no longer has the tertiary segment which is doing better than schools right now. Trump has delayed the new China tariffs because this could hurt the US consumer in the yearend shopping season. But in the same breath he says China is paying the tariffs? The man is a nut job. Local CPI came in at 4%, below previous of 4.5% and expected at 4.3%. Simply there is no inflation in the system right now and another rate cut from the MPC is surely assured as we move even lower below the 4.5% mid

Brought Index and Structured Solutions, Absa CIB Simon Shares US yield curves have inverted across the range. Shorter term rates are higher then longer-term rates. Now every recession has been proceeded by a yield curve inversion. But not every yield curve inversion has been followed by a recession. So maybe it's warning us or maybe it's not. In short, we'll see lots of hysteria and end of world doom sayers out in force, but as always just carry on carrying on. Upcoming events; 15 August ~ JSE Power Hour: ETFs for investing and retirement Subscriber to our feed here Subscribe or review us in iTunes Managed volatility ETFs with Len Jordaan Index and Structured Solutions, Absa CIB Three Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) issued by Absa earlier in the year. NFEHGE NFEMOD NFEDEF Download the managed volatility product brochure Absa Volatility Managed SA Equity Indices. JSE – The JSE is a registered trademark of the JSE Limited. JSE Direct is an independent broadcast and is not endorsed or affiliated with,

Simon Shares Trade wars are back, but this time 'only' 10% on US$300billion of goods. No surprises? China is responding by allowing their currency to weaken to decade lows. Fed cuts 0.25%. Trump says that's not enough, but he is priming an excuse. He has an election next year and if the market / economy is weak - he'll blame the Federal reserve. Iron ore futures lost 10% last week and are currently around US$92, I been warning of this and Vale is producing again so the shortage is disappearing. Now sure Kumba Iron Ore (JSE code: KIO) has high quality lumpy iron ore which attracts a higher price. But the US$108 / tonne they got in the last results will not be repeated. Delta (JSE code: DLT) and Rebosis (JSE code: REB) talking about a possible merger? In many ways it makes sense, but the issue is debt on the Rebosis CEO is quoted as saying they need to fix their debt levels, not sure that does this. Nedbank (JSE code: NED) results show the quality of our banks. They're growing (yes very modestly at low single

Simon Shares Shoprite* (JSE code: SHP) trading update sees full year profits down. But the real point is that the second half of the year was way better than the first half as they fixed DC and IT issues and had no further strike action. But it is still tough with lots of products in deflation which is squeezing margins. Massmart (JSE code: MSM) update was a shocker with Game bleeding like crazy. Not a surprise, but as Nic Norma-Smith said on Twitter "Wal-Mart paid $2.3bn for 52% of Massmart in 2010. Today the stake is worth $370m.". Ouch. NFEMOM*, the ABSA momentum ETF has been flying and is almost +20% year-to-date and just behind the S&P500 and best over last year (of indices, local and sub, that I track). I always like momentum and when ABSA changed the methodology of this ETF I switched my personal momentum portfolio into the ETF. Just as I did this everybody claimed momentum was dead, and the ETF struggled. But momentum never dies, even when (if?) value ever comes back, those value stocks will gain

Simon Shares Kumba (JSE code: KIO) results saw production down, but with the average selling price up 57% at US$108 / tonne - they shot the lights out. But this is surely the top here? Rumours are that Vale has iron ore on the water heading for China and slower Chinese GDP may hit demand, sending iron ore back to a more sensible price around US$70 / tonne? Platinum continues to edge higher. Remember S12J? You could invest in a funds that invested into startups (within certain rules). Then whatever you invested would be deducted from your taxable income (on condition you held for 5 years) and tax would only be CGT, albeit on a zero cost basis. Government is now proposing a limit of R2.5million per person per year. Frankly for the vast majority, this is a non event as that's serious money. Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is the new Prime Minister of England. What one may think of him, markets don't care and for traders / investors that's what matters. That said, hard Brexit remains a stupid idea. IMF cuttin

Simon Shares S&P500 above 3,000 and Dow Jones above 27,000. EOH (JSE code: EOH) have found R1.2billion of bad deals over 4 years, 2013-2017. A new dawn, I think so, but I would add a very slow dawn. Platinum starting to look decent? We have higher lows and two higher highs. A close above US$910 (still a way off) and things looking real strong. If you're long PGM miners. If not an entry on pull backs looks smart. Woolworths* (JSE code: WHL) trading update excited the market and shows a much improved second half, especially in food (expected) and clothing (not expected). Australia remains under pressure but overall good and the real question is if it's a new trend or a one off? Anheuser-Busch InBev (JSE code: ANH) has suspended the listing of their Asia-Pacific business that would have seen almost US$10billion being raised. The reason given is tough market conditions but the bigger issue is they wanted the cash to pay off part of the massive debt bill from buying SABMiller - so for now they remain with too

Simon Shares CSEW40* change confirmed for next Wednesday, it'll now be SMART. Trade peace, kinda ~ for now. In classic Trump style, lots of huffing, puffing and threatening the blow the house down. Until a 'deal' is reached. Afrimat (JSE code: AFT) walks away from the Universal Coal deal. No details, but likely they didn't like what they saw? Respect, far too many deals get deal mania and concluded no matter what. PricewaterhouseCoopers has resigned as auditors of Group5 (JSE code: GRF). Now this is moot as Group5 is in business rescue with no chance of surviving and PWC cites heightened risks due to resignations of many senior execs. But one wonders if they'd had quit in the older auditing days? Upcoming events; 18 July ~ JSE Power Hour: How to invest offshore with the JSE * I hold ungeared positions. fff Download the audio file here Subscriber to our feed here Sign up for email alerts as a new show goes live Subscribe or review us in iTunes Longest economic expansion ever The current US economic e

Simon Shares The Top40 is up almost 20% since the lows of November and over 12% year-to-date. But instead it feels all gloom and doom. Wescoal (JSE code: WSL) results look horrid, but they had strike issues when they employed a new contractor and that hit production and the leverage impact seriously hit HEPS. But they remain a high quality junior coal miner. Omnia (JSE code: OMN) results were ugly, but not as ugly as the market expected. Apparently during the results presentation they blamed the media for their 23 April SENS stating no rights issue, which they then changed their mind on earlier this month? Gold is running and the perma gold bulls are thrilled - albeit surprisingly quiet? However, a number of people are asking if they should buy gold and the answer is usually no, buy a gold miner and benefit from the leverage impact. Bitcoin* is also going wild, now above $12,000. Here the perma BTC bulls are all over my time line. Question is how high will it go? Answer is no idea, in a perfect world it need

Simon Shares Old Mutual (JSE code: OMU) has fired suspended CEO Peter Moyo and detailed what went wrong. The short version is that the company Moyo founded (NMT group), was CEO of and chair since taking up CEO at Old Mutual paid two dividends when they should in the first instance paid Old Mutual as a preference shareholder a dividend and in the second instance they paid when they should have first paid off the preference shareholder - Old Mutual. Moyo has fired back with a lawyers letter stating that Old Mutual is wrong and in fact their representative on the board voted in favour of both dividends. Who's right? I have no idea and ultimately the courts will decide, or more likely the parties will settle. So for now it is about money and how much Moyo gets. The good news for Old Mutual shareholders is that this is not an operational issue, but they do now need a new CEO. Metrofile* (JSE code: MFL) have restructured their debt that cost two CFOs their jobs. The new debt will see the tax rate revert back to th

Simon Shares Solid Stor-Age (JSE code: SSS) results from a stock I have largely ignored and been wrong about. Interesting TymeBank presentation from African Rainbow Capital (JSE code: AIL).  Lonmin (JSE code: LON) is gone, taken over by Sibanye Gold (JSE code: SGL). Lonmin has a consolidation adjusted all time high of over R33,000, exiting at 1480c. They also had a US$10billion offer in August 2008 that they rejected. Market cap now, R4billion or about US$265million. Unpacking the Satrix property ETF ~ STXPRO Retire: Playing catch-up Upcoming events; 20 June ~ JSE Power Hour: Trade the trade wars 18 July ~ JSE Power Hour: How to invest offshore with the JSE Suspended Tongaat (JSE code: TON) suspended. Choppies (JSE code: CHP) suspended. Group5 (JSE code: GRF) suspended. Rockwell Diamonds (JSE code: RDI) suspended. Basil Read (JSE code: BSR) suspended. Esor (JSE code: ESR) suspended. Firestone Energy (JSE code: FSE) suspended. Freedom Property Fund (JSE code: FDP) suspended. I'll stop there because you