Alpha Exchange

Initially trained as a lawyer and consultant, Peter Cecchini's career spans a few decades across the buy side and sell side, focused on both bottoms up and top down analysis of risk and opportunity. Now the head of research and strategy at Axonic Capital, Peter shared his insights on the Merton model and the linkages between credit spreads, stocks prices and asset volatility. In the context of this discussion, we explore episodes of dislocation between equity and credit markets, how to spot them and the implementation of trades to capitalize on them. In Peter’s view, the better risk signal has traditionally emanated from the credit markets where bondholder obsession with being paid back dominated the sometimes lofty upside scenarios entertained by equity market investors. Over time, however, the degree to which the equity cushion has risen so markedly may lead to credit market complacency, leaving Peter sometimes more focused on stock price fluctuations as the cleaner risk signal.Our conversation, of course,