The Option Alpha Podcast

50: Is The Stock Market Random Or Predictable? The Final Debate On Efficient Markets

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Synopsis

Show Notes: http://optionalpha.com/show50One of the foundational elements of my personal trading style with options is the belief that the stock market is random. Random meaning that we can't gain an edge picking a direction. And for years, this assumption has been more or less accepted by the public and academia.  In the last couple months, the theory or hypothesis around random financial markets has repeatedly been challenged, which is a good thing. A countless number of people have tackled the issue and published their findings on random market behavior. I wish I could link them all up here, but it's just not possible nor realistic. Therefore, my goal on today's show is simply to present what I believe to be the best research on the topic of market efficiency and predictability.Admittedly, I scheduled this show as a follow-up to Show 49 where we backtested 15 different option buying strategies during the last market crash. And the reason is that I wanted you to recognize how much "perfe