Dr. Howard Smith Oncall

  Vidcast:  https://youtu.be/Nz60NienuxM   Chinese mathematicians studying the CoVid19 disease dynamics predict that the hardest hit area, Wuhan, will see new cases trail off in April.  That’s a full 4 months after the beginning of disease transmission.  Their online, as yet unpublished data predicts, that for less hard hit Beijing and Shanghai, cases will cease about now in early March.  That’s about 3 months from the onset.  CoVid19 will decline in remainder of China by mid-March, that’s about 2 months from the beginning.     So once CoVid19 arrives in a region, it will be a 4 month threat.  To be on the safe side, double that for elective travel plans if you are in a CoVid19-vulnerable group due to age or health.   Length of epidemic:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023465v1.full.pdf   #covid19 #coronavirus #epidemic #pandemic