Complexity Premia

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this punchy new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi, a portfolio management director, discuss a range of important developments, including: The reaccleration in inflation The risk of an unwinding of the coincident bond and equity rally in March Shock credit rating upgrades to major bank bonds and hybrids that Coolabah forecast in November 2023 Portfolio returns and the outlook for 2024 What happens to equities and bonds if the looming US CPI data confirms Coolabah's sticky services inflation thesis The conundrum if we get immaculate disinflation and we are wrong about a rebound in core inflation  

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this punchy new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments, including: The key investment questions for 2024  Big asset-allocation shifts of out illiquids Stubborn services inflation driving a reacceleration in core inflation Interest rate risks are skewed to higher for longer Asset returns in January and February   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recor

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.  In this exciting new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments, including: What returns were delivered in 2023 The macro and investment outlook for 2024 Why markets appear priced for perfection with little insurance for downside risk A deep dive on relative value across the capital structure   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The views expressed in this recording represent the perso

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.  In this exciting new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments shaping the current economic climate, including: Why the US Federal Reserve is making the RBA look like sleepy hollow What government bond yields around 5% pa mean for the pricing of all assets The emergence of big bank bond yields as much as 7.5% pa Why massive consumer savings buffers are delaying this hiking cycle Thinking about optimal asset-allocation between floating-rate and fixed-rate bonds Why fixed-rate bond duration is looking very attractive Why this default cycle is getting nastier and crea

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.  In this unscripted episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments shaping the current economic climate, including: APRA’s new discussion paper on ways to improve the functioning of bank/insurer hybrids Reflections on what the Credit Suisse crisis means for the hybrid market Market performance in August and September  Rising appetite for fixed-rate bond duration NSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey’s decision to slash debt issuance in FY24 Optimal asset-allocation and portfolio construction   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coo

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.  In this relaxed and unscripted episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments shaping the current economic climate including: Commercial property in crisis Non-bank lenders under the pump The mother of all default cycles hits home Business defaults sky-rocket Recent bond market performance What makes this interest rate cycle different Whether inflation will be sticky and stubborn Optimal asset-allocation and portfolio construction Best trade ideas This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investmen

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.  In this highly anticipated, unscripted episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments progressing as we head into the 2024 Financial year including : FY23 performance, Where the RBA is heading with its cash rates, How far the global interest rate cycle has to go, Coolabah’s latest inflation analysis, Why bond markets keep getting rates wrong, What will happen to house prices, Signs of stress in mortgage markets, Whether now is the time to average into interest rate duration exposures, and Where to find the best risk-adjusted returns. This information is suitable for wh

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.  In this new, unscripted episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Chris and Ying Yi discuss a range of important developments including:   Recent performance,   The coming US recession,   Ramping up of the default cycle,   The Credit Suisse collapse,  Implications of Silicon Valley and CS for bank bondholders,  Central banks pausing rates,  Huge consumer buffers,   NSW aggressively paying-back debt,   Trades we like, and   The RBA review.  This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Serv

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this new, punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast,  we discuss a range of important developments including:  The coming global recession  and monster default cycle;  Why illiquidity is concealing huge risks;  The rise of risk-free yield and what it means for asset-allocation;  Why there will be no post crash boom in asset prices; How the great housing crash has momentarily stalled but is far from over; and Why RBA Governor Philip Lowe should be replaced by an RBA outsider.   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 60

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this new, lively episode of the Complexity Premia podcast,  we discuss a range of important developments including:  How the RBA is wielding Thor's Hammer, and it has really yet to hit home How we are now getting major bank bonds paying interest rates as high as 6.75% pa How many asset-classes have yet to be properly smoked by higher rates, including commercial property, residential property, private credit, high yield bonds, venture capital, private equity etc   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In the first episode of the Complexity Premia podcast for 2023, we discuss a range of important developments including:  Performance across all asset-classes in 2022, including equities, bonds, housing and others Outlook for returns in 2023 and the valuation mispricings we consider to be most attractive Review of our 2022 forecasts and what we expect from the macroeconomy and financial markets in 2023   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Ltd ACN 605806059, which holds Australian Financial Services Licence No. 482238 (CCII). The vi

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this new episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:  Why there will likely be a global recession in 2023 and what this means for markets Why the Aussie housing market is set to endure a lot more pain as 1-in-4 borrowers have their interest rates more than double Why there are now very interesting opportunities in bank bond markets following the large increase in risk-free rates and a substantial widening in credit spreads, which has meant that many bonds are paying superior yields to equities and property What higher cash rates mean for valuations across all asset-cl

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts. In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:  How according to Coolabah’s new analysis, hordes of ‘zombie’ companies in Australia and the US are going to die as economies are purged of their weakest enterprises  Why this is related to the explosion in private credit funds and high yield bond issuance, which have provided finance to companies that cannot typically get loans from more conservative and highly regulated banks (think of this as a new sub-prime crisis)  The outlook for interest rates and the various dilemmas confronting the RBA, including an ind

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.    In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director, to discuss the worst month in history of the Aussie bond market. In this heavy-hitting episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including: The coming US recession; The bounce-back in fixed-income/bond markets in July; The record Aussie housing correction; and New investment opportunities that are now emerging given the radical increase in interest rates and credit spreads.    This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has b

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.    In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director, to discuss the worst month in history of the Aussie bond market. In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including: The string of losses for bond indices in 2022 The implications of higher interest rates and wider credit spreads for investors The silver lining for investors getting the best 10 year interest rates on Aussie government bonds March performance for long-only and long-short strategies How geopolitical risks have amp

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager at Coolabah Capital. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     In this special episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, Christopher is joined by Dr Stephen Parker, another portfolio manager at Coolabah, to discuss whether crypto is a 21st century version of the great Tulip Bulb Bubble. In particular, they chat about: What the history of financial crises tells us about non-bank innovations that threaten the conventional, government-backed regimes; and Whether crypto delivers on the value propositions that promoters spruik: namely, being a stable and viable store of wealth outside of centralised governments; acting as a powerful inflation hedge in a world awash with money printin

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:   • The trend to higher rates across developed and emerging markets into 2022 • Why the Greenspan-Bernanke put option may have expired and the implications for asset prices including equities and housing • December bond market performance • NSW's extraordinary budget turnaround as it pulls a $20 billion rabbit out of its hat • Whether the bank and corporate bond market is becoming “the next quant revolution”   This information is suitable for wholesal

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:    • Why Aussie house prices will fall 20% if the RBA lifts rates by 100 basis points • Coolabah’s research on using advanced models to forecast global wars • The battle between the RBA and the bond market bandits • October bond market performance  • NSW's commendable efforts to slash debt issuance by up to $22 billion   This information is suitable for wholesale investors only and has been produced by Coolabah Capital Institutional Investments Pty Lt

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:    Correlation convergence between interest rate duration and equities; Portfolio performance across a range of strategies; Avoiding investing in bonds issued by entities based in and/or controlled by non-democratic countries on an ESG basis; APRA closing down the $139bn CLF by end-2022 and the consequences for fixed income assets; Opportunities in government bonds;  RBA QE3; and ESG activism.    This information is suitable for wholesale inve

Welcome to the Complexity Premia podcast from Coolabah Capital, which is hosted by Christopher Joye, CIO and portfolio manager of Coolabah Capital, and Ying Yi Ann Cheng, a portfolio management director. The Complexity Premia podcast strives to deconstruct modern investment problems for wholesale (not retail) participants in capital markets. You can listen on your favourite podcast app, or you can find it on Spotify, Podbean or Apple Podcasts.     In this punchy episode of the Complexity Premia podcast, we discuss a range of important developments, including:  Coolabah's latest research forecasting both the advent of “herd immunity” in Australia, which we forecast will be by January or February 2022; When governments will be comfortable re-opening our borders, which we project will be mid 2022; and How the exodus of foreign workers from Australia has contributed to the largest surge in job vacancies since the 1970s and placed downward pressure on the official unemployment rate, which will likely be revers