Alpha Exchange

As Chief Investment Strategist at iCapital, a global alternatives platform, Anastasia Amoroso is responsible for helping the firm’s clients understand changes in the macro regime and how capital should be allocated in response. We start our discussion by considering the current state of affairs – of high interest rates, of correlated moves in stock and bond prices and resilient economic growth – and exploring where history is and is not relevant.Here, Anastasia highlights the degree to which both consumers and corporations are far less sensitive to interest rate increases than they were in the pre-GFC era. Higher rates are a concern, but they need not derail the case for risk assets like stocks which have delivered good returns amidst higher rates in the past. For Anastasia, an instructive framework for evaluating opportunity is one that considers valuation, positioning and a catalyst. And in the context of this last factor, she notes favorable earnings revisions which are showing signs of recently bottoming

Armed with a PhD in economics, Torsten Slok spent several years at the OECD, doing deep dive analysis and making policy recommendations on big picture issues such as pension reform, tax systems and health care policy, before ultimately hitting Wall Street. He spent more than 15 years on the sell-side, a period that included the GFC and Pandemic and the lean rate years between them.Now a Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, Torsten is providing input on the macroeconomic backdrop and the implications for the firm’s investments. Our discussion primarily considers the joint states of the economy and inflation - where we’ve been, where we’re headed and the read through on Fed policy. On the economy, Torsten suggests that in this cycle, the transmission of changes in monetary policy to the real economy is especially lagged as both individuals and corporates have largely shielded themselves from rate increases.On inflation, Torsten describes the ebbing and flowing of goods versus services inflat

An undergrad econ major, Cameron Dawson got hooked on markets early, taking a class on securities and portfolio analysis in Business School which set her down the path of market study. She broke into the business as an industrials analyst on the buy-side, time that gave her an opportunity to develop an appreciation for how the macro landscape intersects with the micro business fundamentals within a cyclical universe of stocks.In this context, we review the period from 2014 to 2016, a time of ebullience within the energy sector and a fracking supply boom. For Cameron, there are important lessons to be had in observing the speed with which this optimism gave way to a protracted downcycle by late 2014. And, in sharp contrast, when the sector appeared un-investable in early 2016, the stocks would turn, discounting the improving fundamentals that would only be visible by late 2016. Here, she sees lessons with how forward looking the market can be, noting that if you weren’t there early, you missed it.We talk about

With a penchant for math and a degree in biology from Cornell, Dave Rogal landed at BlackRock in 2006. With the housing bubble in full sway, he was part of a group that provided asset liability management advice to large institutions. Three years later, as the dust settled from the financial crisis, he joined the fixed income division, mentored by industry experts, and quickly exposed to the world of pricing dislocations that populated the system well into 2009.Now the head of Total Return and Inflation Portfolios, Dave shares some of the lessons learned on risk management through crisis periods. Reflecting on vol events like the Covid market shock, he asserts that simplification of exposures is critical as correlations can become unstable and unreliable. We spend most of our time learning about Dave’s framework for thinking about inflation, a variable he suggests must be approached with humility. On a forward-looking basis, he sees disinflation in autos, a component that was hot, but is now starting to feel

To be sure, factor investing has been a thing in equities for some time now, with vast pools of capital managed by firms that employ a systematic approach to harvesting style factors like growth, value and momentum. In 2013, Asness, Moskowitz and Pedersen authored, “Value and Momentum Everywhere”, for the Journal of Finance, finding common factors in return attribution across 8 markets.Still, a decade later, fixed income factor investing is a nascent strategy. Enter Karishma Kaul, Head of Systematic Fixed Income Strategies at Fidelity. With a masters in financial engineering from Cornell, she hit Wall Street in 2008, landing on a fixed income desk the day of the Lehman Bankruptcy. The ensuing financial crisis would provide valuable lessons on the limitations of theoretical models and the pitfalls that potentially arise from back-tests.Our discussion shifts to fixed income factor investing. Karishma provides an overview of common factors, including value, momentum and quality. The latter, she argues can play a

Welcome to a special retrospective edition of the Alpha Exchange, narrated by yours truly. I’m a big fan of consequential events in market history as they provide a great opportunity to learn about the conditions under which asset prices can become unruly.Are there commonalities in these episodes that might allow us to develop a roadmap for why, how and when they might occur?  From a risk management perspective, what are the key lessons of vol events?In this context, it’s difficult not to reflect on the nearly unmanageable unwind of Long Term Capital that occurred 25 years ago. Over the next 50 minutes or so, I set out to take you through some of this important event from my own perspective and along the way bring in insights shared by guests of our podcast. I hope you enjoy it.

For Kristy Akullian, an interest in economics during college was motivated by a need to learn about personal finance in order to make budget each month with student loans and other expenses. After a short stint at a boutique RIA, she joined the iShares division within BlackRock, where she is now a Senior Strategist supporting the firm’s clients on asset allocation.Our conversation explores the development of ETF technology over the years and Kristy’s time as part of the delta one initiative in expanding the universe of investors in the product. Here we learn about her desire to be “in the weeds” on margin, clearing, taxes, dividends and funding in access products that enable synthetic replication.We spend the balance of the conversation exploring Kristy’s role as Senior Investment Strategist and the analysis of flows and positioning that constitutes a portion of her framework. She sees extended positioning in futures contracts on broad indices like the S&P and NDX as a reason for caution. She notes, howev

With more than two decades of experience trading and managing risk in sell-side and buy-side roles, Mimi Duff has learned a thing or two about high finance. In the early 1990’s she cut her teeth writing research for agency and treasury securities at Goldman Sachs. She’d later move to trading, focused on making markets in the long end utilizing a framework for the relative value of securities across the curve.We review some of the prominent risk events she’s traded through including September 11th and the reverberations of volatility in market prices that resulted. Mimi makes the point that the emotional response to an event so tragic tests a trader’s capacity to manage risk. We also explore the GFC and the front row seat that Mimi had to this event. Running the swaps trading desk at Barclays, she was responsible for the interest rate exposure that came about through the Lehman acquisition, calculating first and second order risks and then implementing a hedging program in the market.Our conversation moves to

Market prices are the outcome of a myriad of factors. Geopolitical developments, the economy, the regulatory landscape and the actions of Central Banks all matter. So, too, do market participants and the set of products they utilize to assume or reduce risk exposures. For Rocky Fishman, the founder of newly formed derivatives strategy firm Asym 500, studying complex products and the mechanical flows they often generate is critical.Our discussion is a review of market risk episodes and how risk management schemes that use volatility as a direct input can accelerate price moves in the broad equity market to both the upside and downside. In this context, we discuss the Feb'18 XIV event as well as the rapid repricing of risk in August of 2015 when China re-pegged its currency versus the dollar. Both events speak to the importance of the positioning that can become lopsided when realized volatility has been especially low.We also talk about diversification and correlation. Here, Rocky makes the point that investor

As Global Co-head of Portfolio Solutions at AQR Capital Management, Dan Villalon is primarily engaged in helping the firm’s clients address constantly evolving challenges around risk management. Central to these, of course, is the search for efficient sources of diversification. In this context, our discussion explores research his team has done in two primary areas.First, we talk about defending against drawdowns that are both fast and slow and back-tests that compare options-based hedging with strategies like trend following that do not require explicit premium payments. For rapid market sell-offs, like those that occurred during the GFC and the Covid crash, explicit, premium based insurance works well. This approach can suffer, however, as the market bottoms and recovers even as option prices remain high. Trend following strategies, while not as effective for sudden market plunges, tend to be more effective in offsetting losses that occur during slower drawdowns, as occurred in 2022.Dan makes the point tha

With an early passion for video games and teaching himself programming languages Q-Basic and C, Corey Hoffstein did not expect to ultimately wind up in money management. But exposure to various roles in the industry through an internship started him down the path, helping him see how to marry his love of computer science with markets.Now the CIO of Newfound Research, a firm he co-founded more than a decade ago, Corey is focused on delivering to investors the one free lunch they are entitled to: diversification. We spend most of the discussion here, with an emphasis on “return stacking”, a strategy that Newfound embraces to expand access to diversifying assets. In this light, a topic we spend some time on is trend following, a strategy that has proven to deliver attractive low correlation to stock and bond returns.Corey describes the manner in which the implementation of trend following is similar to the delta hedging of a long volatility position, allowing the strategy to provide some portfolio protection in

Your host is back again, providing some thoughts and commentary on the recent period of low volatility in the equity market. With SVB and the debt ceiling uncertainty mostly in the rear-view, markets embraced the calm, experiencing just a single 2% up move and a single 2% down move in the first half of 2023. I break down the causes and consequences of lower volatility. Along the way, you’ll hear some talk on the gamma/theta trade-off, stock bond correlation, the price of upside calls in the S&P 500 and what appears to be an attractive level of implied volatility for gold. Hope you enjoy!

As we cue up some new guests for the Alpha Exchange, some reflections from your host on the Black Scholes model and its 50th anniversary. No model is perfect and traders must grapple with real world frictions not entertained by the model. I discuss how option market participants make adjustments and why. Hope you enjoy! 

In a world bubble for the Alpha Exchange podcast, the words vol, carry and convexity would be prominent. And in this episode, featuring Amy Wu Silverman, the Head of Equity Derivatives Strategy at Royal Bank of Canada, we dive into these concepts head on. First, we learn about Amy’s experience in structured rates when, in and around 2007, Fannie and Freddie were the go-to credit to which all kinds of complex instruments were attached.Reflecting on how wrong this ultimately went, she tells us that it often takes the experience of crisis to help us appreciate ways in which market realities can deviate violently from the textbook. We explore some of Amy’s framework, which leans into the value of market prices in helping establish consensus and forming a starting point for investors to map their own distributions of outcomes versus that implied by the market.We then talk about option prices and market risk dynamics today with attention to the huge surge in NVDA and the impact on both option vol surfaces and passi

There's always a bull market somewhere, and in today's climate of hyper short termism, both volume and commentary are thriving in the land of zero days to expiry options. While the risk characteristics of ODTEs are generally agreed on, the directionality of the flows and resulting positioning remain subjects of vigorous debate. With this in mind, it was a pleasure to welcome Nitin Saksena, the Head of US Equity Derivatives Research at BofA Securities, to the Alpha Exchange.Before embarking on the work that Nitin and team are doing to better understand these ultra short dated options, we survey the landscape of cross-asset vol. Here, Nitin notes that options on certain currency pairs - for example in the Canadian dollar - score on the cheap side on a nominal basis. On a relative basis, rate vol remains substantially high compared to SPX vol as the MOVE index is just 20% off its Covid high while the VIX has declined by 80%.Next, we turn to the risk implications of the substantial flows in daily SPX options. Giv

The hedge that carries positively but delivers convex returns during a market panic is about as elusive as our lawmakers coming together in bipartisan fashion. As head of option strategies at AQR, Roni Israelov not only confirmed this but saw in the empirical data distinctly unpromising results for hedging strategies that utilized put options.Trained with a PhD in Financial Economics from Carnegie Mellon, Roni has spent his career researching complex topics in markets. We explore his paper “Pathetic Protection” and the challenges that arise from paying option premium to reduce risk. Roni sites the path dependency of options as introducing sometimes significant variability in the effectiveness of a program. He also sites the equity risk premium and the vol risk premium as headwinds for success.Our conversation shifts to another interesting topic, “rebalance timing luck”, work that Roni has done in collaboration with Newfound Research. The finding - that the performance of mechanically rebalanced strategies – c

Welcome to a special edition of the Alpha Exchange, one in which your host and guest are one and the same. Above all, our conversations on this podcast are aimed at helping you think about risk. After all, it was the Spanish philosopher George Santayana who famously said, “those who forget history are doomed to repeat it.”This podcast has three parts. First, an update on a project I’ve been working on, MacroMinds. I created this foundation back in 2019 to raise funding for causes in the NY area focused on student education. Our “business model” is simple – host a once a year, highly differentiated symposium featuring industry leaders who share their insights on the remarkably complex world of investing. On June 7th in NYC, we are doing just that, and I could not be more excited about our incredible agenda.Second, I review a couple of prices in the world of optionality and what they mean in the context of today’s risk dynamics. Specifically, I discuss the fast widening level of CDS written on the US as the ref

What has experience taught us about consequential market risk events? First, volatility in asset prices can materialize when a strongly held consensus view is shattered. Presented with “new news” – about defaults, about inflation, about earnings – investors may be forced to shed exposures, right-sizing their risk allocations to this new state of the world. Market vol episodes can be especially protracted when the attendant uncertainties do not fit neatly into an Excel spreadsheet.Here, the US debt ceiling checks the boxes. And against the backdrop of an emerging standoff, it was a pleasure to welcome Libby Cantrill, the Head of Public Policy at PIMCO, to the Alpha Exchange. Our discussion explores the sometimes chaotic intersection of politics and markets and the way in which her work is utilized by risk takers at PIMCO. We spend the bulk of our conversation on the debt ceiling and here Libby lays out how the 2023 version has important differences from the 2011 version, specifically in the degree of leverage

25 years post the chaotic unwind of Long Term Capital Management, there are lessons a plenty to be gleaned from this event. With this in mind, it was a pleasure to welcome acclaimed writer Roger Lowenstein, author of the famous book “When Genius Failed”, to the Alpha Exchange. His work is a compelling chronical of the vast success but ultimate failure of this storied hedge fund.We discuss some of the philosophical underpinnings of the firm’s risk management framework, focusing on the influence of Nobel Prize winners Myron Scholes and Robert Merton. We review some of LTCMs favorite trades and how in reality they were far less diversified than they appeared. And we discuss the rescue, a messy episode involving banks, the Fed and Warren Buffet, kind of.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Roger Lowenstein.

Welcome to the Alpha Exchange Q1 2023 Review, in which we assess some of the trends in market risk that have recently been important. We discuss gold, the performance of VIX ETP strategies and the return of traditional risk on/risk off. We also spend time dissecting changes in the shape of the S&P 500 Index volatility skew and commenting on that well known put spread collar. We finish with some information on the MacroMinds Investment Symposium, an event taking place on June 7th in New York City that raises critical funding for education focused charitable organizations.  Thank you for listening.