Macro Musings

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde is a professor of economics at the University of Pennsylvania and is the co-director of the Business, Economic, and Financial History Project at the Wharton School of Business. Jesus is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about recent macroeconomic developments, the demographic issues facing the world, and AI’s implications for economic growth. Specifically, David and Jesus also discuss whether we needed the fiscal and monetary stimulus of 2021, the European inflation story, South Korea as a case study for global demographic trends, how quantum computing will may impact macroeconomics in the future, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Jesus’s UPenn profile Jesus’s NBER archive   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Demographic Future of Humanity: The Trends* by Jesus Fernandez-Villave

Chris Conlon is an associate professor of economics at the NYU Stern School of Business where he focuses on industrial organization economics and econometrics. Chris joins David on Macro Musings to help shed light on the 2021-2023 inflation surge from the perspective of an IO economist. Specifically, David and Chris discuss the great markup debate within IO economics, the shaky foundation of greedflation, the cost anticipation story of higher prices, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Chris’s Twitter: @conlon_chris Chris’s website Chris’s NYU profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Rising Markups, Rising Prices?* by Chris Conlon, Nathan Miller, Tsolmon Otgon, and Yi Yao   Chris’s Twitter thread on the recent inflationary episode   *The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomics Implications* by Jan De Loecker, Jan Eeckhout, and Gabriel Unger  

Tim Lee is an independent journalist who formerly worked for the Washington Post, Vox, and Ars Technica, where he covered tech policy, blockchain issues, the future of transportation, and the economy. Tim currently produces the newsletter, Understanding AI, and is also a returning guest to Macro Musings. He rejoins the podcast to talk about AI, automation, and its implications for the macroeconomy and policy. Specifically, David and Tim also discuss the singularism vs physicalism debate, the possible threats posed by AI, how the regulatory landscape will be affected by AI, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Tim’s Twitter: @binarybits Tim’s newsletter: Understanding AI   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!                                                       Related Links:   *The AI Safety Debate is Focusing on the Wrong Threats* by Tim Lee   *Congress Shouldn’t R

Steven Kamin is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and previously was the director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board. Steve joins David on Macro Musings to talk about the US dollar and its implications for policy and the economy. Specifically, David and Steven discuss the effects of Fed policy on emerging markets, the factors that are driving a higher global equilibrium real interest rate, how to reconcile the domestic and international impacts of Fed policy, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Steven’s Twitter: @steven_kamin Steven’s AEI profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Will the Strong Dollar Trigger a Global Recession?* by Steven Kamin   *How Do Rising US Interest Rates Affect Emerging and Developing Economies? It Depends* by Steven Kamin, Carlos Arteta, and Franz Ulrich   *Are Highe

Chris Hughes is a senior fellow at the Institute on Race, Power, and Political Economy at The New School, and he is also the co-founder of the Economic Security Project and a senior advisor at the Roosevelt Institute. Previously, he was also the publisher of The New Republic and is a co-founder of Facebook. Chris joins Macro Musings to talk about his work on Arthur Burns’ tenure as Fed Chair and the lessons we can learn from it as applied to today’s inflation experience. Specifically, David and Chris also discuss Arthur Burns’ view of the economy and inflation, how his perspective on business psychology impacted these views, Burns’ view of fiscal and industrial policy as a tool for combating inflation, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Chris’s Twitter: @chrishughes Chris’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Rethinking Arthur Bruns, the

Peter Stella is the former head of the IMF’s Central Banking Division and has researched and written extensively on safe assets, collateral, and central bank operations. He now hosts the website, Central Banking Archaeology and continues to consult with the IMF on central bank balance sheet issues. Peter is also a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the quasi-fiscal implications of central bank crisis intervention over the past few years. David and Peter also discuss the losses on the Fed’s balance sheet, using market value versus the par value of debt, the Fed’s debt management issues with mortgage backed securities, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode.   Peter’s Twitter: @Stellar_Consult Peter’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions: Case Studies*

Christina Skinner is a legal scholar at the Wharton Business School at the University of Pennsylvania and was formerly legal counsel to the Bank of England. Christina is also a returning guest to the podcast, and she rejoins Macro Musings to talk about central bank digital currency and its legal implications for the state, individuals, and the Fed itself. David and Christina also discuss recent developments in CBDC policy rhetoric, the privacy issues surrounding CBDC, the potential interest bearing nature of CBDC, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode   Christina’s Twitter: @CParaSkinner Christina’s Wharton profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Central Bank Digital Currency as New Public Money* by Christina Parajon Skinner   *A New Coin of the Realm? Central Bank Digital Currency as New Public Money* by Christina Parajon Skinner (coming soon)

Gianluca Benigno is a professor of economics at the University of Lausanne and was formerly a senior staffer and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, an economist at the Bank of England, and worked at the London School of Economics. Gianluca joins Macro Musings to talk about financial conditions in r**, his work on *The Dollar’s Imperial Circle,* and more. David and Gianluca also discuss the importance of liquidity in a New Keynesian framework, the origins and purpose of the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, the “Global Financial Resource Curse,” and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode   Gianluca’s Twitter: @BenignoGianluca Gianluca’s website   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The Dollar’s Imperial Circle* by Gianluca Benigno, Ozge Akinci, Serra Pelin, and Jon Turek   *The Financial (In)Stability Real Interest Rate, R*** by Gianluca Beni

Dan McDowell is an associate professor of political science at Syracuse University, and he is the author of a new book titled, *Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash Against the Dollar.* Dan joins Macro Musings to talk about this new book and the prospects for de-dollarization around the world. David and Dan also discuss the mechanics and effectiveness of financial sanctions, the renminbi as a rival to the dollar, Russia and Turkey as case studies, and more.   Transcript for this week’s episode   Dan’s Twitter: @daniel_mcdowell Dan’s website Dan’s Syracuse University profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Bucking the Buck: US Financial Sanctions and the International Backlash against the Dollar* by Dan McDowell   *What’s Driving Dollar Doomsaying?* by Paul Krugman   *Renminbi’s Share of Trade Finance Doubles Since Start of Uk

Jeanna Smialek is a reporter who covers the Federal Reserve and the economy for the New York Times, and is the author of a new book titled, *Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On a New Age of Crisis.* Jeanna is also a returning guest to Macro Musings and rejoins the podcast to talk about her book and its implications for the future of the Federal Reserve system. David and Jeanna also discuss the credit allocation vs. liquidity support debate, the Fed’s definition of price stability, the Bank Term Funding Program, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode   Jeanna’s Twitter: @jeannasmialek Jeanna’s New York Times profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes on a New Age of Crisis* by Jeanna Smialek

Nathan Tankus is a popular writer for a newsletter titled, *Notes on the Crises* and is the research director of the Modern Money Network. Nathan is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about modern monetary theory and the debt ceiling. Specifically, David and Nathan discuss the future of MMT, the case for minting the trillion dollar coin, the prospects of issuing Federal Reserve securities, the history of the Fed’s operating procedures, and a lot more.   Transcript for this week’s episode   Nathan’s Twitter: @NathanTankus Nathan’s Substack, Notes on the Crises Nathan’s Modern Money Network profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Join the Macro Musings mailing list! Check out our new Macro Musings merch!   Related Links:   *The New Monetary Policy: Reimagining Demand Management and Price Stability in the 21st Century* by Nathan Tankus   *Federal Reserve Issued Securities: Not Such A Crazy Idea After All* by Nathan Ta

Brian Sack was recently the Director of Global Economics at the D.E. Shaw Group, and prior to that, he was the manager of the System Open Market Account or SOMA and the head of the Markets Group at the New York Federal Reserve bank, where he managed the Fed’s balance sheet. Brian joins Macro Musings to talk about the central bank’s balance sheet, its operating system, and his work at the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. Specifically, David and Brian discuss the current state of the Fed’s balance sheet, Brian’s theory of QE, how to improve the effectiveness of the floor system, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Brian’s LinkedIn profile Brian’s Google Scholar archive   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Monetary Policy with Abundant Liquidity: A New Operating Framework for the Federal R

Mark Calabria was the Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency and prior to that, he was formerly a chief economist for Vice President Mike Pence. Mark is also a previous guest of Macro Musings, and he rejoins the podcast to talk about his new book titled, Shelter From the Storm: How a COVID Mortgage Meltdown Was Averted. Specifically, David and Mark discuss Mark’s time as the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the relief programs his agency ushered through during the peak of the COVID crisis, the history and handling of Fannie and Freddie, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Mark’s Twitter: @MarkCalabria Mark’s Cato Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Shelter From the Storm: How a COVID Mortgage Meltdown Was Averted* by Mark Calabria

George Hall is a professor of economics at Brandeis University, and was formerly an economist at the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. In this bonus segment from the previous conversation, George rejoins the podcast to talk about how the US handled the surge in debt resulting from World War II, how COVID changed government financing, his thoughts on the debt ceiling crisis, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   George’s Twitter: @George_J_Hall George’s Brandeis profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Brief History of US Debt Limits Before 1939* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent   *Financing Big US Federal Expenditures Surges: COVID-19 and Earlier US Wars* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent   *Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrections* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent

George Hall is a professor of economics at Brandeis University, and was formerly an economist at the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank. George has written widely on the history of U.S. public finance, and he joins Macro Musings to talk about the history of the U.S. national debt, including the most recent surge resulting from the pandemic. David and George also discuss how a government goes about funding itself, two different models of expenditure financing, the Revolutionary War and Civil War as case studies, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   George’s Twitter: @George_J_Hall George’s Brandeis profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *Financing Big US Federal Expenditures Surges: COVID-19 and Earlier US Wars* by George Hall and Thomas Sargent   *Debt and Taxes in Eight U.S. Wars and Two Insurrection

Bill Nelson is a chief economist and executive vice president of the Bank Policy Institute and was previously a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board, where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. He also worked closely with the BIS working groups on the design of liquidity regulations and is a previous guest of the podcast. Bill rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the Fed’s balance sheet, and in particular, the impact that the Fed’s response to the recent banking turmoil has had on its size, as well as the role being played by the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility. David and Bill also discuss the changes in collateral treatment brought about by the banking crisis, the invocation of 13(3) for the Bank Term Funding Program, the recent volume of discount window lending, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Bill’s BPI profile BPI’s Twitter: @bankpolicy   D

Kate Judge is a professor of law at Columbia Law School and the editor of the Journal of Financial Regulation, and Peter Conti-Brown is an associate professor of financial regulation and the co-director of the Wharton Initiative on Financial Policy and Regulation at the University of Pennsylvania. Both are also returning guests to the podcast, and they rejoin Macro Musings to talk about the banking panic of 2023 and the lessons learned so far. Specifically, Kate, Peter, and David discuss how the scene was set for this recent banking crisis, the quality of the policy response, how to reform the banking system moving forward, and a lot more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Kate’s Twitter: @ProfKateJudge Kate’s Columbia Law profile   Peter’s Twitter: @PeterContiBrown Peter’s UPenn profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!  

Brian Riedl is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute where he focuses on budget, tax, and economic policy issues. Previously, he worked for six years as chief economist for Senator Rob Portman of Ohio and as staff director of the Senate Finance Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth. He also served as director of budget and spending for Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign and was the lead architect of the 10-year deficit reduction plan for Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign. Brian joins Macro Musings to talk about the outlook of US public finance and the tough choices ahead. Specifically, David and Brian also discuss the surging US debt to GDP ratio, the shortfalls of Republican and Democratic plans for budget reform, Brian’s preferable policy path forward, and much more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Brian’s Twitter: @Brian_Riedl Brian’s Manhattan Institute profile   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for

Steven Kelly is a senior research associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability and is a previous guest of the podcast. Steven rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the recent bank collapses at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature, the government response, and what this means for financial stability policy in the present and future. David and Steven also discuss the role that interest rate risk and macro policy played in SVB’s failure, the debate over the systemic nature of this crisis, the implementation and use of the Bank Term Funding Program, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Steven’s Twitter: @StevenKelly49 Steven’s Substack: Without Warning   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   Steven Kelly Twitter thread on SVB   Daniela Gabor Twitter thread on SVB   *Was This a Bailout? Skeptics Des

Derek Tang is the CEO and co-founder of LH Meyer, and is part of the research team based in Washington, D.C. where he forecasts Fed policy developments, provides bespoke policy analysis to institutional investors, and also closely monitors and forecasts the Fed’s balance sheet. Derek joins David on Macro Musings to talk about Fed policy, Fed politics, and what to expect in 2023 and 2024. Specifically, David and Derek discuss numerous personnel changes at the Fed, the future of the central bank’s balance sheet, the upcoming Congressional agenda for the Fed, what the next framework review has in store, and more.   Transcript for the episode can be found here.   Derek’s Twitter: @macroderek Derek’s LH Meyer bio   David Beckworth’s Twitter: @DavidBeckworth Follow us on Twitter: @Macro_Musings   Click here for the latest Macro Musings episodes sent straight to your inbox! Check out our new Macro Musings merch here!   Related Links:   *The Federal Reserve’s Current Framework for Monetary Policy: A Review and Asse