Macro Musings

Soumaya Keynes is the US economics editor for The Economist magazine, and she is also the co-host of *Trade Talks*, a podcast on all things trade, including trade policy, trade wars, and the future of trade. Soumaya joins the show today to talk about the general topic of trade, but also some other recent economic developments. David and Soumaya also discuss dollar dominance, the effects of trade policy on economic uncertainty, and the highlights, and major themes of the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/09162019/soumaya-keynes-trade-dollar-dominance-and-highlights-jackson-hole   Soumaya’s Twitter: @SoumayaKeynes Soumaya’s website: https://soumayakeynes.com/ Soumaya’s Economist profile: https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/soumaya-keynes/   Related Links:   *Soumaya Keynes Says Trump Trade Tweets Have Unleashed 'Bigger Uncertainty' Beyond Tariffs* https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/soumaya-keynes-say

Alex Tabarrok is a professor of economics at George Mason University and holds the Bartley J. Madden Chair in Economics at the Mercatus Center. Alex has written widely on long run economic growth and joins the show today to talk about it. David and Alex also discuss how capital relates to economic growth, the impact of regulation on dynamism, and the important distinction between “catch-up” and “cutting edge” growth.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/09092019/alex-tabarrok-elements-economic-growth-and-decline-dynamism   Alex’s Twitter: @ATabarrok Alex’s Mercatus profile: https://asp.mercatus.org/alexander-tabarrok Alex and Tyler’s blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/   Related Links:   *Modern Principles of Economics* by Alex Tabarrok and Tyler Cowen https://www.macmillanlearning.com/college/us/product/Loose-leaf--Version-for--Modern-Principles-of-Economics-4E--FlipIt-for-Survey-of-Economics-Six-Months-Access-4E-Online/p/131909872X   *Is Regulation to Blame for the Decl

Judge Glock is an economic historian and a scholar at the Cicero Institute in San Francisco. Judge’s research is focused on the Great Depression, and he has recently published a paper on an important idea shaping Federal Reserve policy during this time; the Riefler-Keynes Doctrine.  He joins the show today to talk about this paper and the Great Depression.  David and Judge also discuss the key ideas behind the Riefler-Keynes Doctrine, how it differs from the Real Bills Doctrine, and how this relates to the Fed’s response to the Great Depression.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/09022019/judge-glock-riefler-keynes-doctrine-and-monetary-policy-during-great   Judge’s Twitter: @judgeglock Judge’s AIER profile: https://www.aier.org/staff/judge-glock   Related Links:   *The ‘Riefler-Keynes’ Doctrine and Federal Reserve Policy in the Great Depression* by Judge Glock https://read.dukeupress.edu/hope/article-abstract/51/2/297/137129/The-Riefler-Keynes-Doctrine-and-Federal-Reserv

Thomas Hoenig was vice-chair of the FDIC from 2012-2018 and in the 20 years prior to that he was also president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank. Thomas is currently a distinguished senior fellow at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University where he focuses on the long-term impact of the politicization of financial services, as well as the effects of government granted privileges and market performance. He joins the show today to talk about his career and some of the current issues in banking. David and Thomas also assess the effectiveness of quantitative easing, the advantages and disadvantages of opening up the Fed’s balance sheet to the public, and the debate between establishing an orderly liquidation authority vs a bankruptcy code.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/08262019/thomas-hoenig-federal-reserve-and-state-banking-us   Thomas’ Twitter: @tom_hoenig Thomas’ Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/people/thomas-hoenig   Related Links:   *"Enormous"

Chris Crowe is head of economic research at Capula Investment Management, a London-based hedge fund, where he covers global economics, primarily the G10 countries plus China. Chris was previously UK economist at Barclays and prior to that he worked at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). He joins the show today to give us the perspective of a macroeconomist from inside a hedge fund on markets, Brexit, and other current events as well as some of his own research. David and Chris also discuss central bank independence, the overall economic impacts of Brexit, and the implications of Jay Powell’s testimony at the Humphrey Hawkins.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/08192019/chris-crowe-hedge-fund-perspectives-and-economic-implications-brexit   Related Links:   *Safe Asset Supply Failing to Meet Demand, Economist Crowe Says* by Frank Fuhrig https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/safe-asset-supply-failing-meet-demand-economist-crowe-says   *The International Impact of the

Aaron Klein is the director of the Center on Markets and Regulations at the Brookings Institution where, among other things, he focuses on financial regulations and real time payments. Aaron has written widely on real time payments and he joins the show today to talk about this issue, as they discuss the definition of real-time payments, how they could have a positive impact on limiting income inequality, and why the Fed is now interested in setting up its own real-time payments system.  David and Aaron also discuss banking reform after the recession, the shadow banking system, and why a lack of bank failures may be a worrying signal.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/08122019/aaron-klein-real-time-payments-and-financial-regulation   Aaron’s Twitter: @Aarondklein Aaron’s Brookings profile: https://www.brookings.edu/experts/aaron-klein/   Related Links:   *Is China’s New Payment System the Future?* by Aaron Klein https://www.brookings.edu/research/is-chinas-new-payment-sy

In this special bonus episode of Macro Musings, David Beckworth joins Employ America and several other monetary policy enthusiasts on the day of the July FOMC meeting to discuss what would be an historic event –  the first interest rate cut executed by the Fed since December 2008, and the market reactions to this event.  In addition to their discussion of this eventual rate cut, David and the other Fed watchers also get a chance to talk about Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Fed Board of Governors, the significance and aftermath of the recent Humphrey Hawkins hearing, how the Fed’s decision to cut parallels the European Central Bank, and more.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/08072019/bonus-episode-watch-party-fed%E2%80%99s-historic-interest-rate-cut   Related Links:   Employ America’s home page: https://employamerica.org/   Sam Bell’s Twitter: @sam_a_bell Skanda Amarnath’s Twitter: @IrvingSwisher Sam & Skanda’s bios: https://employamerica.org/about/   Soumaya Keyne

Evan Koenig is a senior vice president and a principal policy advisor for the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas where he has been since 1988. Evan joins the show today to talk about his time at the Fed and some of his research. David and Evan also discuss where the Federal Reserve’s review is going in the next six months, Evan’s preferred version of nominal GDP targeting, and how important the yield curve is relative to other credit indicators.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/08052019/evan-koenig-feds-review-period-monetary-regimes-and-yield-curves   Evan’s Dallas Fed bio: https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economists/koenig.aspx Evan’s research profile: https://ideas.repec.org/f/pko435.html   Related Links:   *Like a Good Neighbor: Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Distribution of Risk* by Evan Koenig https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb13q2a3.pdf   *Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real-Time VAR Analysis* by N Kundan Kishor and Evan Koen

Ulirch Bindseil is currently the director general of the Directorate General Market Operations at the European Central Bank (ECB), and in November he will become the director general of Market Infrastructure and Payments at the ECB. Ulrich has written widely on central banking operative frameworks, including a textbook, and is considered one of the world’s leading authorities on operating systems. He joins the show today to talk about these frameworks and much more. David and Ulrich also discuss the debate between floor and corridor systems, the principles for evaluating operating frameworks, and the big lessons central bankers have learned from the past decade.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/07292019/ulrich-bindseil-central-bank-operating-systems   Ulrich’s ECB paper archive: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/research/authors/profiles/ulrich-bindseil.en.html Ulrich’s ResearchGate profile: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ulrich_Bindseil   Related Links:   *Evaluatin

Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at George Mason University and is the co-author of the popular economics blog, Marginal Revolution. Tyler has published widely in economics and is the author of numerous books including his 2017 book, *The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream.* As a returning guest to the show, however, he joins today to talk about his newest book, *Big Business: A Love Letter to an American Anti-Hero.* David and Tyler also discuss many aspects of big business, including its common critiques, the fallacy of the monopoly in America, and how income inequality has become tied to the firm.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/07222019/tyler-cowen-culture-big-business-united-states   Tyler’s Twitter: @tylercowen Tyler’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/tyler-cowen Tyler and Alex’s blog: https://marginalrevolution.com/   Related Links:   *Big Business: A Love Letter to an American Anti-Hero* by Tyler Cowen https://us.

Joe Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics where he has been since September 2009. Previously, Joe worked for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as a senior economist and the associate director of both the Division of International Finance and the Division of Monetary Affairs, and he has also served at the US Treasury Department.  Joe is a returning guest to Macro Musings and joins the show today to talk about the growing interest among U.S. politicians in managing the currency to help facilitate trade imbalances. David and Joe also discuss the policy implications of trade imbalances, the new Libra currency, and how to us countervailing currency intervention to combat currency manipulation.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/07152019/currency-manipulation-trade-imbalances-and-libra   Joe’s Twitter: @GagnonMacro Joe’s PIIE profile: https://www.piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/joseph-e-gagnon?author_id=653   Related Links:  

Heather Boushey is the executive director at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a think tank founded to accelerate cutting edge analysis into whether and how structural changes in the US economy affect economic growth. Heather recently co-edited a book titled, *Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy,* and she joins the show today to discuss it. David and Heather also discuss income inequality, automatic stabilizers for fiscal policy, and how monetary policy intersects with these issues.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/07082019/income-inequality-and-automatic-stabilizers   Heather’s Twitter: @HBoushey Heather’s Equitable Growth profile: https://equitablegrowth.org/people/heather-boushey/   Related Links:   Equitable Growth’s funded research page: https://equitablegrowth.org/elevating-research/funded-research/   *Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy* by Heather Boushey, Ryan Nunn, and Jay Shambaugh https

Jeffry Frieden is a professor of government at Harvard University where he specializes in the politics of international monetary and financial relations. Jeff is the author of many articles and books including *Currency Politics: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy* and *Lost Decades: The Making of America’s Debt Crisis and the Long Recovery*. He joins the show today to talk about some of his work. David and Jeff also explore what has led to the recent rise in populism across the nation, the difficulty of interregional labor mobility and its economic effects, and current issues within the Eurozone.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/07012019/rise-populism-labor-mobility-and-eurozone   Jeff’s Twitter: @jafrieden Jeff’s Harvard profile: https://scholar.harvard.edu/jfrieden   Related Links:   *Currency Politics: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy* by Jeffry Frieden https://press.princeton.edu/titles/10364.html   *Lost Decades: The Making of America’s Deb

Salim Furth is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center where he studies regional, urban, and macroeconomic trends and policies.  Salim joins the show today to talk about some of his work on housing supply in the United States and its implications for policy. David and Salim also discuss the problems that arise from rigid zoning laws, the rise of NIMBYism, and possible ways to conduct regulatory zoning reform.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/06242019/land-use-regulations-rise-nimbyism-and-options-reform   Salim’s Twitter: @salimfurth Salim’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/people/salim-furth   Related Links:   *Housing Supply in the 2010s* by Salim Furth https://www.mercatus.org/publications/state-and-local-regulations/housing-supply-2010s   *Do Minimum-Lot-Size Regulations Limit Housing Supply in Texas?* by Nolan Gray and Salim Furth https://www.mercatus.org/publications/urban-economics/do-minimum-lot-size-regulations-limit-housing-supply-texas   *Th

Sam Bell and Skanda Amarnath are a part of a new organization called Employ America, a new research and advocacy organization that aims to get better labor market outcomes. Sam is also known on “FOMC Twitter” as an influencer when it comes to nominations for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and Skanda is a former hedge fund economist and New York Federal Reserve research economist. Sam and Skanda join the show today to talk about gross labor income targeting and the future path of Federal Reserve policy.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/06172019/sam-bell-and-skanda-amarnath-gross-labor-income-targeting   Sam’s Twitter: @sam_a_bell Skanda’s Twitter: @IrvingSwisher About Employ America: https://employamerica.org/about/   Related Links:   *Floor It! Fixing the Fed’s Framework with Paychecks, Not Prices* by Skanda Amarnath https://medium.com/@skanda_97974/floor-it-fixing-the-feds-framework-with-paychecks-not-prices-78171423e9c1   *The Quick and Dirty Case for Cutting

Daniel Griswold is a research fellow and co-director of the Trade and Immigration Project at the Mercatus Center. Dan is a nationally recognized expert on trade and immigration policy and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. He joins the show today to help get us up to speed on the latest developments in issues on the ever-expanding US trade war with the rest of the world. David and Dan also discuss the USMCA, the negative aspects and seriousness of the trade war, and US intellectual property disputes with China.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/06112019/usmca-tariffs-and-us-trade-war   Dan’s Twitter: @DanielGriswold Dan’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/daniel-griswold Dan’s blog: https://madabouttrade.com/   Related Links:   *Trump’s China Trade War Meets the Retailpocalypse* by Felix Salmon https://www.axios.com/us-china-trade-war-retail-apocalypse-50f85f2a-e287-4f22-936c-ef1c39c8897c.html   *The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare* by

Mike Bird is a Hong Kong based reporter for the Wall Street Journal covering financial markets across Asia, and he previously worked in the Journal’s London bureau. Mike is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he joins the show today to talk about some recent developments in the Asian economies. More specifically, David and Mike discuss Japan’s activist monetary policy, yield curve control, and recent events within the Chinese economy.   Transcript for the episode: (coming soon)   Mike’s Twitter: @birdyword Mike’s Wall Street Journal profile: https://www.wsj.com/news/author/mike-bird   Related Links:   *Japan Is Giving Up on Activist Monetary Policy* by Mike Bird https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-is-giving-up-on-activist-monetary-policy-11556271835   *The Fed Would Struggle to Match Japan’s Bond Market Control* by Mike Bird https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-fed-would-struggle-to-match-japans-bond-market-control-11557480894   David’s blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David’s Twitter: @DavidBeckwo

Robert Samuelson is an economics columnist for the Washington Post and spent several decades working at Newsweek, where he wrote on various economic topics. Robert is the author of several books, including *The Good Life and Its Discontents: The American Dream in the Age of Entitlement* and *The Great Inflation and Its Aftermath: The Past and Future of American Affluence*. He joins the show today to talk about the latter and its implications for today. David and Robert go in-depth about the Great Inflation, as they discuss the disagreement within macroeconomics during the 60s and 70s, the history and significance of the period, and how Ronald Reagan and Paul Volcker sought to end the inflation.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/05282019/great-inflation-its-history-and-its-legacy   Robert’s Washington Post profile & bio: https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/robert-j-samuelson/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6e300b47761d   Related Links:   *The Great Inflation and Its Aft

Dylan Matthews is a senior correspondent with Vox where he covers a wide array of topics including immigration policy, universal basic income, education policy, effective altruism, animal welfare, and global development. Dylan is one of Vox’s original founders and he has also previously worked for Wonkblog at the Washington Post.  He joins the show today to discuss one of his most recent articles on business cycles, titled *The Government Failed to Stop the Last Recession. It Can Prevent the Next One*, as well as some of his other work on the subject. David and Dylan also discuss recessions at length, exploring what we know about them, why we should worry about them, and outlining 9 potential policy options to help prevent recessions in the future.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/05202019/nine-ways-prevent-future-recessions   Dylan’s Twitter: @dylanmatt Dylan’s Vox profile: https://www.vox.com/authors/dylan   Related Links:   *Why I Gave My Kidney to a Stranger – and Why

Robert Graboyes is a senior research fellow and health economist at the Mercatus Center and has formerly worked for the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and Chase Manhattan Bank. Robert joins the show today to talk about monetary history and specifically the history of small coins. David and Robert also discuss a number of different coins and the history surrounding them, ranging from civil war tokens to early Roman currencies.   Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/05132019/robert-graboyes-monetary-history-small-coins   Robert’s Twitter: @Robert_Graboyes Robert’s Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/robert-graboyes   Related Links:   *Anticipations of the General Theory?* by Don Patinkin https://www.press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/A/bo5964857.html   *Notre-Dame and the Myth of Timelessness* By Robert Graboyes https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/notre-dame-and-myth-timelessness   Coins discussed during the interview:   20th century token from Kopper’s S